美国市场疲软仍局限于低端市场——目标价上调至215欧元

2024A2025E2026E1,819.42,235.92,413.92,235.92,242.82,366.9202.1255.3279.2135.8174.8192.3 2027E2,588.12,529.9305.3212.1 Henrik Paganetty * | Equity Analyst44 (0)20 7029 8471 | hpaganetty@jefferies.comMartin Comtesse, CFA ^ | Equity Analyst49 69 719187107 | mcomtesse@jefferies.com The Long View: DO & COInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferDo&Co is a premium caterer that operates in a growing airline market.Do&Co is well-placed to capitalise on the weak position of competitors.We believe most airlines are too dependent on market leaders such asGategroup and LSG and thus they might look for alternative suppliers.The large contract wins with airlines in recent years show that Do&Cocurrently strikes a chord. These market share gains should continue. TheIATA outlook expects passenger growth of 3.8% annually for the 2023-2043period.Base Case,€215, +24%Our base case assumes a sales CAGR of 12%until FY 2026/27e, followed by a c.4% mid-term growth rate in line with IATA outlook. Weexpect the EBIT margin to increase to 8.2% inFY 2026/27e as a result of 1) a higher kitchenutilization; 2) general economies of scale; and3) better conditions of new deals. We model asustainable EBIT margin of 9.0%. Our base caseyields a PT of €215, implying a FY 2024/25etarget multiple of c.15x EV/EBIT.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue: Materials sourcing and efficiency -Tackling the worldwide consumption andwaste problem has become a priority for the whole food, food production, and packaging sector. Ofhighest relevance is the waste created through food production and consumption. Therefore, it isimportant to understand the waste industry’s regulations and its collection, sorting, and processingsystems.Other material issues are 1) Supply Chain Management and 2) Labour Practices.Company Targets/Metrics:Do&Co is constantly looking for ways to reduce the footprint of packagingit receives, waste accumulating during food production, and packaging required to protect andtransport prepared meals. Thus, it is Do&Co’s commitment to work towards complete circularity byimplementing packaging options which have circular capabilities. It is Do&CO’s goal to reduce wastegeneration by 55% through prevention, reduction, recycling, and reuse by 2030.Questions to Management:1.Do you have a dedicated team that is only responsible for waste management?2.What are the key problems when it comes to waste management in airline catering?Please see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,€275, +58%Our upside scenario assumes that FY 2026/27esales will reach €2.6bn due to further largertender wins. It also includes a higher mid-termgrowth rate of about 6%. We model a sustainableEBIT margin 10%, as we see further marginpotential through economies of scale and betterprofitability through further high-quality tenderwins. Our upside case yields a PT of €275,implying a FY 2024/25e target multiple of c.18xEV/EBIT. Downside Scenario,€140, -19%Our downside scenario assumes that sales in FY2026/27e will only reach €2.2bn due to fewertender wins and stronger competition. In thisscenario, we assume fewer long-haul flights andfewer business class seats. We also assumean EBIT margin of 6% in FY 2026/27e, due tothe limited scale and increasing supplier andpersonnel costs. In the downside scenario, thisEBIT margin is also our sustainable EBIT margin.Our downside case yields a PT of €140, implyinga FY 2024/25e target multiple of c.11x EV/EBIT.CatalystsKey catalysts1) further tender wins2) a higher utilization of the existing airportkitchens3) a strong Q4 2 Estimate changesIn light of the robust 9M performance and a constructive outlook, we have revised our previouslyconservative EBIT projections upward by 8%. This adjustment reflects our expectation thatDo&Co will continue to gain market share, underpinned by its strong competitive positioning.The revision also accounts for the ongoing depreciation of the Turkish Lira and evolving marketconditions in the US. As a result of enhanced visibility after material hyperinflation adjustmentsin Turkey, we foresee an increase in minority interests related to Do&Co’s Turkish joint venturewith Turkish Airlines. This marks a shift from the lower levels observed in FY 2019/20-2023/24,which were influenced by both hyperinflationary pressures and the COVID-19 crisis.Chart 2 - Estimate changes.€mTotal OutputEBITDAmarginEBITmarginNet ProfitmarginSource: JefferiesJefferies vs consensusWhile our estimates for FY 2024/25e are consistent with FactSet consensus across sales,EBITDA, and EBIT, we project slightly stronger performance in FY 2025/26-2026/27e. This reflectsour more bullish outlook on Do&Co’s ability to grow its market share.Chart 3 - Jefferies vs Consensus.Consensus2024Sales1819Growth28%EBITDA202Growth41%Margin11.1%EBIT136Growth58%Margin7.5%Source: Jefferies and FactSet (03.06.2025)EBIT margin expansio