谁在招聘？招聘销售专业人员以推动有机增长；将ROL评级上调至买入

Equity ResearchJune 2, 2025Stephanie Moore * | Equity Analyst(615) 934-1384 | smoore@jefferies.comHarold Antor * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8483 | hantor@jefferies.comPJ Sullivan * | Equity Associate+1 (646) 805-5461 | psullivan@jefferies.comKEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:PRICE TARGET$208.00PRICE TARGET$22.00 ($19.00)$65.00 ($55.00)Figure 2 - ROL tradesat ~30x or 7 turnsabove its 2015-2019avg EV/EBITDA FY2multiple of 23xROLSource: Company data,JefferiesFigure 3 - Strong Margin Expansion andOrganic Growth Often Leads to Multiple--Source: Factset, Company data, JefferiesVSTS EBITDA margin expansion only from spinoff in FY23Figure 4 - Both ROL and BV SalesProfessionals Remain Elevated vs LT Averages Summary of ChangesCompanyBrightViewBVPreviousRollinsROLPreviousAPi Group CorporationAPGCintasCTASVestisVSTS^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.Cons. EPS: Source: FactsetPlease see important disclosure information on pages 33 - 38 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. RatingPrice^BUY$15.61BUYHOLD$56.92BUY$46.76HOLD$224.75BUY$6.20 Who's Hiring? Looking At Sales Professional Hiring asa Harbinger of Organic GrowthIn conjunction with our data team, we scraped job postings for five of our Business Servicescompanies: APG, BV, CTAS, ROL, and VSTS, to analyze whether the company is ramping salesprofessional hiring.Our thesis is simple: the increased hiring of sales professionals should leadorganic growth on average by 6-12 months, thus those companies that are ramping hiring activitycould see accelerating organic growth over the next year.BV and ROL Hiring Activity EncouragingAs outlined in detail below, based on our analysis, BrightView (BV) and Rollins (ROL) appear to beramping sales professional hiring, with job listings for 1Q25 exceeding historical averages. In thecase of Vestis (VSTS), although the company is still in the early stages of its organic growth recovery,we note that sales job postings have accelerated throughout 2024 and into 2025, as the companyconcentrates on enhancing service and securing new business opportunities. Lastly, we did notobserve a significant increase in sales professional job postings for either APG or CTAS.In our view, organic growth and EBITDA margin expansion are the two most important variablesin driving valuation multiple rerating across our Diversified Business Services space. As seen infigure 4 below, there is a high correlation in companies who deliver HSD% organic growth andrealize higher multiples over time. Our view is strong organic growth delivered through executionon cross-selling/up-selling opportunities paired with pricing allow these companies to generaterobust incremental margin and operating leverage, ultimately expanding EBITDA margin over timeas well. Given normalized pricing in these industries run 1-3% on average, our sense is total organicgrowth for these companies is weighted towards volume: cross-sell, up-sell, and net new businesswins. All in, our view is an increase in sales force/sales professionals leads organic growth by 2-4quarters given it typically takes 6-12 months for sales force professional to become productive.The consistent organic growth in excess of inflation enables operating leverage and EBITDA marginexpansion.Figure 5 - Strong Organic Growth Leads To Higher Multiples.BV0.0x5.0x10.0x15.0x20.0x25.0x30.0x35.0x-1.0%0.0%1.0%NTM EV/EBITDASource: Factset, Company data, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 33 - 38 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. CTASROLAPGULSARMK2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%5yr-Organic GrowthFigure 6 - Best In-class Operators ROL and CTAS deliver HSD% organic growthand in turn trade at ~30x NTM EV/EBITDA.2020CTAS3.2%ROL3.9%APG-9.0%BV-6.3%ULS-0.6%ARMK-24.1%Average-10.0%ROL vs peers ex CTAS13.9%CTAS vs peers ex ROL13.2%Source: FactSet, Company data, JefferiesOrganic Growth for ARMK looks only at global FSS ROL - Investing for Growth; Upgrading Shares to BuyThe Rollins Case StudyFocusing on Rollins, in 2020-2021 management materially increased its sales force hiring giventhey noticed several trends post the pandemic: work from home, geographical relocation, and homeimprovements.While we took mgmt's word for it at the time, our data corroborates the actions inwhich when we look at 2021 hiring, we note that the average postings of sales professionals inthe year was ~37% higher as compared to the company's 2015-2019 avg.Our view is the increasedsales force with the incremental "boots on the ground" helped ROL win new business as consumersrelocated and spent more time at home, as well as drove incremental cross-sell/upsell services. Webelieve ROL not only drove new entrants to the space (i.e. first time pest service customers), but alsotook share from other pest companies.Performance Before And After Hiring.Looking at the performance, total organic gro