电信日报：Sunrise 2025年第一季度/沃达康2025财年/DTE/西班牙电话公司/泽戈纳/英国电信/意大利电信

Restricted - External Emerging Markets TelecomsNEUTRALLatin America Telecom & MediaNEUTRALEuropean Telecom ServicesNEUTRALEuropean Telecom ServicesMathieu Robilliard+44 (0)20 3134 3288mathieu.robilliard@barclays.comBBI, ParisMaurice Patrick+44 (0)20 3134 3622maurice.patrick@barclays.comBarclays, UKGanesha Nagesha+91 (0)22 6175 1712ganesha.nagesha@barclays.comBarclays, UKMaxime Delaugerre+44 (0)20 3555 5672maxime.delaugerre@barclays.comBarclays, UK (+47.7% yoy growth vs +44.3% in 3Q), with SA steady (+3.4% yoy vs +3.2% in 3Q), andInternational +9.2% vs +7.0%. EBITDA of ZAR28.9bn for 2H was 3% below our expectation, withthe miss broad-based. For 2026 Vodacom sees solid delivery in all markets – with SA set toaccelerate EBITDA to mid single-digit growth (+2.3% yoy for FY25, BARC est: +5.8%), Egypt“comfortably above 20%” vs +51% in FY25 (BARC est: +18.4%), and International +double digitEBITDA growth vs -11% for 2025 (BARC est: +17.8%). Net debt was modestly below ourexpectation, and ROCE remains strong at 23.5% - DPS was +5.1% to 620cents.DTE - Group trends remain above peers despite more competition in Germany1Q25 results evidenced strong trends, above peers growth on all metrics. The US drove a beat vsexpectations and a guidance increase. On the negative a more competitive environment inGermany leads us to cut estimates there. We increase our PT(€42.0 PT, was €41.0) driven by theUS and remain OW. 1Q25 results delivered strong trends with organic revenue growth of +3.8%yoy, Adj EBITDA aL growth of +5.3% yoy and Adj. EPS growth of +11.1% yoy. The US remains themain growth driver but Germany/Europe are also still growing. Management acknowledgedthat competition had become tougher in Germany but continues to focus on value. In fixed, thetarget to get 40% of Broadband net adds seems out of reach for 2025 and PA spending shouldonly recover later in the year but mobile remains solid. We cut our estimates for Germany butremain within guidance, notably on EBITDA, thanks to cost discipline. Despite recent concernsabout the future growth trajectory of the US, management believes that the growth profileremains intact. Lastly we note that de-leveraging is progressing fast (2.18x excluding lease in1Q25 vs 2.31x at 4Q25 and 2.63x including leases vs 2.78x in 4Q24) which means that (includingthe US deals in the pipeline), DTE has dry powder to increase its share buyback or its stake inTMUS.Telefonica - Positive surprise on FCF guidance, strategic uncertainties dominate1Q results evidenced that Spanish slight growth is well established, in a market that is growingoverall. Brazil is delivering steady mid- to high-single-digit growth in a rational market. Germanyis going through the 1&1 migration, negatively impacting trends during 2025E, but shouldstabilise in 2026E. Hispam is the main problem child, but the exit is accelerating (two deals thisyear closed and at least one more in the works), which isliftingFCF. So we think the operationaloutlook is reassuring (aside from leverage, which is above peers and too high, in our view, giventhe limited growth). However, uncertainties about the outcome of the ongoing strategic revieware material: management has indicated that Spain, Brazil, Germany and the UK remain corebut also seems open to increasing its presence in some verticals (B2B/ICT, for instance),organically and/or inorganically. The new management also believes that TEF shouldparticipate in potential consolidation, in-market but also cross-border eventually. Unconfirmedpress reports indicate that Telefonica is potentially interest in taking control of the UK jointventure (Bloomberg - 14 May 2025) and separately that Telefonica shareholders would supporta capital increase should the company need more funds for acquisitions or to reduce debt(Bloomberg 9 April 2025). We are very sceptical about the merits of any such an acquisition, but,until the strategic review, uncertainty prevails.Zegona - Banks provide €4bn financing for MasOra NetCo JVPress reports indicate that banks have submitted terms for €4bn of financing for theMasOrange/Vodafone NetCo. This would suggest >8x net debt:EBITDA, given Zegona hassuggested the JV could generate €480m EBITDA over a 3 year time horizon. Given the size of thefinancing, which includes a further €4bn at the MasOrange level, up to 30 banks may beeventually involved, according to the article. The article suggests that KKR and GIC havesubmitted non-bindingoffersto acquire a stake in the NetCo, with up to 8 parties submittingoffers.We believe that the planned stake sale plus debt recapitalisation could realisec€1.6-1.7bn of net proceeds to Zegona, supporting deleveraging, and the planned acquisition ofthe Vodafone preference shares. Source: TMTfinance (14 May 2025)2 BT - Set to near deal to sell stake in TNT Sports to DiscoveryPress reports suggest that BT is in advanced talks to sell its 50% stake in TNT Sports toDiscovery, with a deal announcement potentially set for as early as this Thurs