维多利亚州预算意味着博彩业持续温和增长

文化传媒 2025-05-20 Jefferies four_king

The Victorian State Budget suggests the government expects continued modest, low-single-digit growth in Electronic Gaming Machines (EGM) revenue despite regulatory changes.
Reduced trading hours have already impacted EGM revenue, particularly for Edentain (EDV), which went early.
Key regulatory changes include: mandatory pre-commitment & carded play by December 2025; load limit reduced from $1,000 to $100 by December 2025; mandatory closure between 4am & 10am from September 2024; and slower spin rate on new EGMs from December 1, 2025.
Despite these measures, EGM tax revenue is forecast to represent approximately 3-4% of total State tax revenues, indicating its continued importance to the Budget.
The Victorian Government forecasts continued modest EGM tax revenue growth of approximately 1-3% from FY25-28.

Jefferies uses a DCF valuation methodology with a price target of AUD4.50, representing a 10% upside to the current price of AUD4.08.
Key assumptions include WACC: 7.9%, ß: 0.95x, Tg: 3.5%, Rf: 4.5%, ERP: 5.0%.
Analysts forecast FY25-28 EBITDA of AUD1,662m to AUD1,752m, with a slight decline in FY25 followed by growth in subsequent years.
NPAT is expected to rebound from AUD430m in FY24 to AUD505m in FY28.
EPS is projected to grow from AUD0.286 in FY24 to AUD0.282 in FY25, then recover to AUD0.282 in FY26 and AUD0.282 in FY28.
The company's yield is expected to be around 5.4% in the near term, with a P/E ratio of 14.4x in FY28.

Risks include a material slowdown in liquor retail, increased regulation impacting gaming income, and challenges in implementing the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system.
Upside risks include an easing of gaming regulatory pressure in Victoria and New South Wales.