2024-2028年全球太阳能市场展望

ForewordWelcome to the Global Market Outlook for Solar Power 2024-2028.For an established sector like solar, approaching double growth in one year was simply not part of any analyst’s script.But it happened in 2023. The world deployed 447 GW of new solar PV capacity last year; an incredible 87% more than2022 and achieving a growth rate we haven’t seen since 2010, when the global solar market was only 4% of today’s size.In last year’s Global Market Outlook, we actually did anticipate growth for several reasons, but not as high as what wasachieved. At that time, a very strong growth in global manufacturing capacities was already visible, making productsavailable again after the pressures of the pandemic and energy crisis. This, of course, also brought overcapacity –effectively doubling supply against demand. Resulting price drops triggered by hefty competition from all these newcapacities was expected as well (though not at the severity the industry eventually experienced). In fact, our growthforecast for all global markets combined, other than China, was nearly spot on – we deviated only by 3% absolute.The accuracy and value of the annual Global Market Outlook for Solar Power would not be possible without the industrystakeholders and all national and regional solar industry associations that provide their input and expertise each year.We would like to extend our gratitude to those experts and their organisations in supporting our mapping andmodelling work, and particularly those from the 31 annual GW-scale solar markets that wrote in-depth features oftheir home markets for this year’s edition (see p. 81).However, the market that is continually difficult to anticipate remains to be China, the world’s largest solar market by far, whichboomed by 167% in a single year. This country alone was responsible for 57% of global installed capacity in 2023, adding aquarter of a TW, basically the same amount that the entire world had deployed in the previous year. The massive price collapsesof around 50% for modules in 2023 alone triggered unforeseengrowth, driven by price elasticity on the demand side. To betterunderstand solar developments in China, this year’s report covers the country in a dedicated chapter, provided by the GlobalSolar Council and its partner the Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association (CREIA) (see p. 61).So, what’s in store for solar this year and beyond? For the supply side, the PV manufacturing industry will continue tosuffer from record-low prices and overcapacities – how long will depend on the consolidation speed in the sector. Thedemand side will further benefit from low product prices that will stay a main driver in a difficult macro-economicenvironment. We will see the climate emergency continuing to capture governments’ attention and energy securityremaining the new compelling argument to invest in solar power in a quickly fragmenting world order. Further driven bycost improvements and the numerous benefits the technology provides, we have increased our most likely outlook to544 GW in 2024, based on a 22% YoY growth, and low two-digit improvements to an annual market of 876 GW in 2028.We have been hearing doubts from many analysts if solar can grow much beyond today’s annual installation levels.While obviously there will be an eventual limit, we don’t foresee this any time soon. Who would have thought thatonly a year ago that China would install over 250 GW last year? Nobody! We should also remember, solar’s share inglobal electricity generation was only at 5.5% in 2023, China’s installed watt per capita was 460 W/c, and MEA onaverage only 27 W/c, compared to 1,359 W/c in Australia – there’s clearly quite some room to grow. For the first timein our five-year forecasting period, our High Scenario is touching an annual TW deployment rate in 2028.While the PV industry is ready for more, it now hinges on policymakers creating the right legal frameworks to enablesolar in unfolding its full potential. That’s why, for the first time, this edition contains policy recommendations from solar’sglobal industry organisation, the Global Solar Council (see p. 57). This includes asks for setting ambitious national targets,and immediate efforts to unleash the flexibility revolution by scaling up investments in battery storage, grids, andelectrification. We also urgently need diversification – on both the supply and demand side, and plenty of financing.To the sector’s gratification, the recent IEA World Energy Investment 2024 report revealed that investment in solarsurpassed all other generation technologies combined. However, there remains severe disparity in global renewableinvestment flows. Two thirds of the world’s population, living in emerging and developing economies outside China, onlyreceived 15% of global investment. Last year’s COP saw world leaders committing to triple world renewables by 2030 toachieve 11 TW, and this year’s COP29 must accordingly set the finance plan for the transition f