B2B电信的未来

© Oliver WymanAs digitalization and software continue eating the world, the future of B2Btelecommunications providers hinges on their capacity to shift to a tech orchestratorand platform model, seamlessly integrating connectivity, cloud, cybersecurity, data andapplications. The transition is being driven by commoditization of voice and the adventof new communication architectures where cloud, networks, edge and computing areconverging. Frontiers are blurring, with a range of actors being able to play this orchestratorrole: hyperscalers such as AWS, Microsoft Azure or Google Cloud, IT services players, Telcooperators... In embarking on this journey, B2B telcos need to navigate many strategiclogjams: They must change their operating model, simplify the product portfolio, adapttheir organizations to sell and deliver hybrid solutions (integrated and managed services).Additionally, they must adopt Tech players’ best practices, take decisions regarding potentialcarveouts, automate operations, and renew and adapt their workforce.B2B telcos have assets to address this challenge. Their natural strengths and capabilities,such as proximity to access networks, carrier-grade supervision, ability to manageenterprise data and identity, customer trust and security, are unique. However, to succeedin this complex journey, they need to be laser-focused on their strategy and articulate veryclearly their value proposition to clients.THE FUTURE OF B2B TELCO: THE CLOUD AND ENTERPRISEDIGITALIZATION ARE STILL IN THEIR INFANCYThe commoditization of traditional telecom connectivity is accelerating, as fixed voicerevenue is declining between 8% to 15% annually depending on geography. This decline isnot being offset by a rise in data and mobile connectivity revenues, which are growing amere 1% to 3% growth per year. The challenge is that time-division multiplexing (TDM) andmultiprotocol label switching transport profile (MPLS-TP), two networking technologies usedfor transmitting data across a network, still represent the bulk of revenues and earningsbefore interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of B2B telcos, and bothtechnologies are expanding at a sluggish rate.On the other hand, the need for secured and enriched connectivity has never been so highand will continue to grow. We are only at the beginning of the migration to the cloud (private,public, and hybrid), which generates new connectivity architecture and needs, and are stillin the infancy of Internet of Things (IoT) and digitalization of enterprises. Digital applicationsand Industry 2.0 will require smart integration of new types of networks (software definednetworks), embedded security (in the cloud, at the edge, including identity management),orchestration of different cloud solutions, and structuring and exploitingdata. © Oliver WymanExhibit 1: Global B2B market — Connectivity versus tech servicesTotal global amount in US$ trillion, percentage of total202220232024F2025F+7%+9%Tech services1Connectivity — mobileConnectivity — fixed80%10%10%1.882%9%9%1.883%8%9%2.084%8%8%2.285%8%7%2.486%7%7%2.61. Including Unified Communications, IT services (application services, BPS, consulting, hardware support, IaaS,infrastructure services), cybersecurity services; excluding hardware andsoftwareSource: Gartner and Oliver WymananalysisIn this growing tech services market, value is migrating towards the capacity to integrate thedifferent elements essential to the digitalization of the economy. The good news is that B2Btelcos have already mastered some of the building blocks of this integration (cybersecurity,cloud orchestration, supervision, and connectivity integration), and these tech servicesmarkets are growing at around 10.5% per year. In 2021, tech services made up 80% ofthe B2B technology and connectivity services market, and over the past three years, techservices have increased its share of the addressable market by three percentage points, to83%. Furthermore, we expect that by 2027, tech services will gain a further four percentagepoints in market share, to 87% (see Exhibit1).This attractive market opportunity led most telco B2B organizations to focus on and growtheir tech service businesses over the past years. The mix of tech and connectivity services,however, differs greatly between operators which are at different steps of their B2B techtransformation journey, with some already above 50% (for example, BT and TIM) and someat or below 25% (for example, Telefonica and Vodafone). © Oliver WymanExhibit 2: Tech services share of B2B revenues (2023 or latest reported quarter)1Percentage of tech services of total B2B revenuesTIM(Italy)BT(UK)Swisscom(Switzerland)50%Orange(France)46%KPN(Netherlands)41%Deutsche Telekom(Germany)30%Telefonica(Spain)25%Vodafone(UK)24%Proximus(Belgium)21%Tele2(Sweden)19%Ø 37Source: Based on public reporting, analyst models and Oliver Wyman Telco B2B marketmodelAlong this journey, operators face not only the challenge to capture part of this gr