2023年区域经济展望更新

2023 UPDATE August2023 ASEAN:Growthwillsoftenin2023/24,domesticlandscapepivotalamiduncertainties Growthisprojectedtoslowfrom5.5%in2022to4.6%in2023,insteadofpreviousprojectionof4.9%.Theprimaryreasonisweakergoodsexportsduetoslowingexternaldemand.However,ASEANeconomieswillremainresilient,thankstotherobustrecoveryindomesticdemand,buoyantlabormarkets,improvingcontributionfromtheservicessector,andalikelyendtotheratehikecycle.Weprojectasteadyrecoveryin2024withgrowthat4.5%,premisedondomesticconditionsbeingstrongenoughtosustaingrowthamidglobaluncertainties. ASEANfaceslowerinflationarypressureduetofallingcommoditypricesandtightermonetarypolicies,andwagepressureisbenign.Giveneasingconcernsoverinflationandexternalfinancialconditions,thereislesspressureoncentralbankstoraiserates.However,disruptionstofoodproductionfromtheElNinoweathercouldposeasignificantupwardinflationaryriskahead. Majorchallengesincludeaglobaleconomicslowdown,especiallyintheUSandChina,alongwithriskofdisruptionbyElNinoconditions.Thesepresentdownsiderisktoglobalgrowth,withtheimpactdifferingacrosscountries,contingentontheiruniqueeconomicfundamentals. Medium-termgrowthoutlookremainssolid.ASEANisprojectedtobethefastestgrowingregionalblocintheworld.ThiswouldbeledbyIndonesia,thePhilippines,andVietnam,whichwillbenefitfromshiftsinglobalsupplychainsandnewgrowthopportunities. CyclicalOutlook:Economywillcontinuetorecoverbutataslowerpace,andinflationwillreturntocentralbanks’comfortzones In 2023, ASEAN economy will continue to recover but at a slower pace than last yearbecause of weaker external demand for export goods.The economy will continue to expand in 2H 2023 and into2024,driven by resilient domestic demand, strong job markets,improving contribution from the service sector, andlikely an end to the current rate hike cycle.Headline inflation has moderated and isheading towards the central banks’ targets,thanks to lower commodity prices, easing supply chain disruption, and tight monetary policies. Most central banks in ASEAN havepaused rate hikes and willlikely stay that way. Besides, disinflation in most countries would open to door for rate cuts, if necessary.Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Cambodia are projected to be the fastest growing economies in the region.  growthprojectedtodipto4.6%amidslowingexports In1H23,exportsdeceleratedasglobaldemandformanufacturedgoodsslowed.However,theregionaleconomyexpanded,drivenbyrecoveringdomesticdemandandtourismactivity.Weakerglobaldemandwasreflectedinslowerindustrialactivity,especiallyinmanufacturingexports-heavycountrieslikeVietnamandMalaysia.ThecontractionintheirrespectivePMIreadingssuggestedthesameConversely,theindicatorswerestronginthePhilippinesandIndonesia,largelyattributedtotheirstrongrelianceondomesticdemand.Weakglobaldemandhasdepressedgoodsexports,butserviceexports–especiallytourism-isrecoveringrapidlyandshouldpartlyoffsettheslowdowningoodsexports Tailwinds:GrowthdriversincluderelativelystrongdomesticdemandandresilientFDIinflowsinmostcountries GrowthinASEANisbeingsupportedbyresilientdomesticdemandwithasteadyrecoveryinthelabormarketandeasinginflation.FDIsloweddownrecentlybecauseofcyclicalfactorsbutremainsresilientdespiteweakerglobalgrowthandfinancialheadwinds.AccordingtoUNCTAD’sWorldInvestmentReport2023,FDIinflowstotheregionincreasedby5%YoYtoUSD223bnin2022,thestrongestonrecord.TherearechallengesposedbytradeprotectionismandslowerWesterneconomies.However,severaltradeagreements,includingtheRegionalComprehensiveEconomicPartnership(RCEP),areexpectedtocreaterobustplatformstoexpandtradeandinvestmentintheregion.AsthefocusshiftsawayfromChina,ASEANnationswillremainattractivedestinationsforFDIinflows. Centralbanksarelikelytopauseratehikesgiveneasinginflationandimprovingexternalconditions MosteconomiesinASEANareseeinglowerinflation,mainlyduetostablecommodityprices,easingsupplychainbottlenecks,andtightermonetarypolicies.Externalconditionshaveimproved.ASEANcurrenciesexperiencedasharpdepreciationlastyearamidtighteningglobalfinancialconditions.Theyhaveappreciatedsince4Q22butsawmildweaknessagainrecently.Currentaccountbalanceshavealsoimprovedthankstoeasingcommodityprices,exceptforcommodity-exporterIndonesia.Recedinginflationandexternalpressureshavepromptedcentralbanksintheregiontobecomelesshawkishbypausingratehikes.Inordertobalancefinancialstabilitywithgrowthandinflation,weexpectcentralbanksintheregiontoholdpolicyratesfortherestoftheyear(exceptforLaoPDRandMyanmar).Vietnam,nonetheless,isaheadinthebusinesscycleandhasstartedtocutitspolicyrates. Headwinds:ExternalfactorssuchasglobaleconomicslowdownandElNiñoeffectscoulddragASEANeconomies,primarilythroughtradechannels Manufacturing-andexport-dependentcountrieswillfeelthebruntoftheslowdown.Theimpactoftheseheadwindswilldifferacrosscountriesbasedontheirrespectiveexposuretoexports.ThosewhichhavesignificanttradetieswiththeUSandChinawillbemostvulnerableinaglobaleconomicdownturn.Onthisnote,VietnamandCambodiawouldbemostvulnerable.SpillovereffectsofChina’sstruct