Market Perspectives Summary
1. Outlook
- USDA May Crop Report: Traders await the report, expected to include 2024/25 world and U.S. balance sheets. Private analysts predict 2023/24 and 2024/25 corn ending stocks to exceed 2.0 billion bushels and grow by 160 million bushels.
- Brazilian Crop Estimates: The gap between Brazilian and USDA estimates may narrow.
- Russian Wheat Crop: USDA's early-season production estimates for Russia at 89-91 MMTs, with hot, dry weather persisting.
- Potential Bearish Market: Expected increase in 2024/25 ending stocks and high USDA production estimates for South America and Russia could lead to bearish futures markets.
- Spring Planting: Central U.S. expected to have a weeklong window for spring seeding with wet weather returning on May 16th.
- Yield Projections: U.S. corn yield projections based on harvested acreage and yield per acre, with models indicating increasing yields.
2. CBOT July 2024 Corn Futures
- Current Market Values: Not specified in summary.
3. U.S. Weather/Crop Progress
- Highlights:
- Barley planting progress good.
- Corn, soybeans, and sorghum planting behind last year's pace but slightly ahead of 5-year average.
- Western Plains experiencing cooler temperatures and needed moisture for wheat yields.
- Ohio Valley with warm, humid weather; Plains with cool weather; South with thunderstorms and dry weather.
- Outlook:
- Scattered showers from Rockies to Atlantic Coast before upcoming pattern change.
- Heavy rain expected in the South, with potential for severe weather.
- West experiencing mostly dry weather with warming trend.
- Near- or above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation expected nationwide.
4. Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS)
- DDGS Prices: Averaged $170 per short ton, down $3 from the previous week and $9 from the previous month.
- DDGS/Cash Corn Ratio: 1.05, down from 1.10 last week.
- DDGS/KC Soybean Meal Ratio: 0.45, down from 0.49 last week.
- Ethanol Production: 965 thousand barrels per day (bpd), down 2% week-over-week.
5. Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads
- Ocean Freight Comments:
- Houthi attacks on merchant vessels quiet this week.
- Ship owners adjusting routes to avoid Red Sea and Indian Ocean areas.
- Panama Canal water levels steady to slightly higher, with plans to add transit slots.
- Nicaraguan law repealed for canal construction between Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
- Baltic Dry Index: Increased 31% to 2,203, with Capesize sector leading the rise.
- Voyage Freight Rates: Followed Baltic indices higher, except for certain Latin American and North African markets.
6. U.S. Export Statistics
- Corn:
- Net sales of 889,200 MT for 2023/2024, up 17% from the previous week.
- Net sales of 49,100 MT for 2024/2025 reported for Mexico, El Salvador, and Honduras.
- Exports down 11% from the previous week, primarily to Mexico, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Colombia, and China.
- Barley: No net sales or exports reported.
- Sorghum:
- Net sales of 61,500 MT for 2023/2024, up notably from the previous week.
- Exports of 138,900 MT, up 84% from the previous week, primarily to China.
