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市场展望——2024年5月9日

2024-05-09 美国谷物协会好运联联-小童

Market Perspectives Summary

1. Outlook

USDA May Crop Report: Traders await the report, expected to include 2024/25 world and U.S. balance sheets. Private analysts predict 2023/24 and 2024/25 corn ending stocks to exceed 2.0 billion bushels and grow by 160 million bushels.
Brazilian Crop Estimates: The gap between Brazilian and USDA estimates may narrow.
Russian Wheat Crop: USDA's early-season production estimates for Russia at 89-91 MMTs, with hot, dry weather persisting.
Potential Bearish Market: Expected increase in 2024/25 ending stocks and high USDA production estimates for South America and Russia could lead to bearish futures markets.
Spring Planting: Central U.S. expected to have a weeklong window for spring seeding with wet weather returning on May 16th.
Yield Projections: U.S. corn yield projections based on harvested acreage and yield per acre, with models indicating increasing yields.

2. CBOT July 2024 Corn Futures

Current Market Values: Not specified in summary.

3. U.S. Weather/Crop Progress

Highlights:
- Barley planting progress good.
- Corn, soybeans, and sorghum planting behind last year's pace but slightly ahead of 5-year average.
- Western Plains experiencing cooler temperatures and needed moisture for wheat yields.
- Ohio Valley with warm, humid weather; Plains with cool weather; South with thunderstorms and dry weather.
Outlook:
- Scattered showers from Rockies to Atlantic Coast before upcoming pattern change.
- Heavy rain expected in the South, with potential for severe weather.
- West experiencing mostly dry weather with warming trend.
- Near- or above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation expected nationwide.

4. Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS)

DDGS Prices: Averaged $170 per short ton, down $3 from the previous week and $9 from the previous month.
DDGS/Cash Corn Ratio: 1.05, down from 1.10 last week.
DDGS/KC Soybean Meal Ratio: 0.45, down from 0.49 last week.
Ethanol Production: 965 thousand barrels per day (bpd), down 2% week-over-week.

5. Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads

Ocean Freight Comments:
- Houthi attacks on merchant vessels quiet this week.
- Ship owners adjusting routes to avoid Red Sea and Indian Ocean areas.
- Panama Canal water levels steady to slightly higher, with plans to add transit slots.
- Nicaraguan law repealed for canal construction between Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
Baltic Dry Index: Increased 31% to 2,203, with Capesize sector leading the rise.
Voyage Freight Rates: Followed Baltic indices higher, except for certain Latin American and North African markets.

6. U.S. Export Statistics

Corn:
- Net sales of 889,200 MT for 2023/2024, up 17% from the previous week.
- Net sales of 49,100 MT for 2024/2025 reported for Mexico, El Salvador, and Honduras.
- Exports down 11% from the previous week, primarily to Mexico, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Colombia, and China.
Barley: No net sales or exports reported.
Sorghum:
- Net sales of 61,500 MT for 2023/2024, up notably from the previous week.
- Exports of 138,900 MT, up 84% from the previous week, primarily to China.

Market Perspectives May 9, 2024 Chicago Board of Trade Market News ............................................................................................ 3Outlook...................................................................................................................................................... 4CBOT July 2024 Corn Futures.......................................................................................................... 5Current Market Values.............................................................................................................................. 5U.S. Weather/Crop Progress........................................................................................................... 6Highlights: ................................................................................................................................................. 6Outlook: .................................................................................................................................................... 6FOB.................................................................................................................................................. 8Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) ................................................................................. 9DDGS Comments....................................................................................................................................... 9Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads............................................................................................. 10Ocean Freight Comments ....................................................................................................................... 10U.S. Export Statistics ..................................................................................................................... 12Corn......................................................................................................................................................... 12Barley ...................................................................................................................................................... 13Sorghum .................................................................................................................................................. 13 Chicago Board of Trade Market News Outlook Traders are preparing for Friday’s USDA May crop report. The report is expected to elicit strongreactions as initial 2024/25 world and U.S. balance sheets are included. Private analysts expect that2023/24 and 2024/25 corn ending stocks will not only hold above 2.0 billion bushels but will grow by160 million bushels. Wheat and soybean are also expected to show increases for 2024/25 ending stocks.Traders will also be watching to see if the extraordinarily wide gap between Brazilian and USDAestimates of the Brazilian crop will narrow. Traders are also watching what USDA will do with the 2024Russian wheat crop this early in the season with production pegged at 89-91 MMTs and hot, dryweather persisting in that region of the world. With increases in 2024/25 ending stocks expected andthe strong possibility that USDA’s production estimates for South America and Russia remain at highlevels, the potential exists for Friday’s USDA reports to be bearish for U.S. futures markets. If there arebullish USDA surprises, they will come from reductions in SA crop sizes. A weeklong window for U.S. spring seeding (corn, sorghum, and soybeans) is forecast for the CentralU.S. with wet weather to return on May 16th. The warm/dry 6-7 days should allow for considerable corn,soybean, sorghum, and spring wheat seeding progress that will ultimately show up in the May 20thPlanting Progress report. The forecasts call for wet weather to return to the Central U.S. beyond May16thand that chances of rain improve for the western Plains states where cool temperatures and somevery needed moisture would favor hard red winter wheat yields. Projecting the size of the U.S. corn crop depends on two components—harvested acreage and yield peracre. The USDA Prospective Planting report released near the end of March provides a starting point inmaking this important projection. The report showed that U.S. farmers intend to plant 90 million acresof corn during the 2024 planting season. Combined with an estimate of the difference between plantedand harvested acreage, this can be used to project harvested acreage. Yield is then the only remainingcomponent needed to project crop size. A simple trend analysis of U.S. corn yields from 1980 to 2023 produces a model that indicates that U.S.corn yields are increasing at 1.92 bushels per acre per year and projects a 2024 trendline yield of 181.3bushels per acre. If just the most recent 11 years are used, 2013 through 2023, then the trendline yieldis 178.2 bushels per acre and is only increasing at 1.05 bushels per acre per year.

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市场展望——2024年5月9日

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