Market Summary Framework
1. Corn Market Outlook
- USDA Sales: 215 TMT corn sold to Mexico, 165 TMT for 23/24 and 50 TMT for 24/25.
- Global Exports: EU corn exports down 16.7 MMT from last year, US exports 42.4 million bushels last week.
- China Imports: 87 TMT corn purchased last week, 107 TMT unshipped.
- USDA Export Projections: Up 29.4% from last year.
- Brazilian Exports: 520 TMT in May, crop at 118.4 MMT by AgRural, USDA at 122 MMT.
- Argentina Crop: 28% harvested, Rosario Exchange estimate 47.5 MMT, USDA 53 MMT.
- Weather Impact: Cold snap may reduce leafhopper outbreak in Argentina.
2. Sorghum Exports
- Last week: 1.9 million bushels.
- Cumulative exports: 192.6 million bushels vs. 65.7 million bushels last year.
3. U.S. Weather and Crop Progress
- Midwest soil moisture conditions improved significantly since early April.
- Drought conditions eliminated in Iowa and Nebraska, rain forecast for Texas, Oklahoma, Delta areas.
- Warmer temperatures expected in the cornbelt, but no extreme heat until mid-June.
- Black Sea area soil moisture conditions declining, affecting corn crop in Russia and Ukraine.
4. Corn Futures and Market Values
- CBOT July 2024 Corn Futures showing some weakness due to favorable growing weather and Brazilian real weakness.
- Potential for prices to drop back toward $4.40 to $4.50 level based on July futures.
5. Distiller’s Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS)
- USDA reported prices at $173 per short ton, mostly unchanged from previous week.
- DDGS/cash corn ratio at 1.06, down from 1.08 last week.
- U.S. ethanol production up 4.8% week-over-week and 6.4% year-over-year.
6. Ocean Freight Markets and Spreads
- Panama Canal vessel transits and wait times rising due to improved water conditions.
- Houthi attacks on vessels in the Arabian Peninsula and Red Sea continue.
- Baltic indices mixed, overall Baltic Dry Index down 1%.
7. U.S. Export Statistics
- Corn net sales up 23% from previous week, down 1% from 4-week average.
- Barley: No net sales or exports reported.
- Sorghum: Total net sales down 63% from previous week, exports down 10%.
