2012-2023年中国重型柴油车油耗及污染物控制技术发展趋势报告

The evolution of diesel heavy-dutyvehicles in China, 2012–2023 SHIYUE MAO, LINGXIAO XU, FELIPE RODRÍGUEZ ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This publication is part of the NDC Transport Initiative for Asia (NDC-TIA). NDC-TIAis part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI). IKI is working under the leadershipof the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, in close cooperationwith its founder, the Federal Ministry of Environment and the Federal Foreign Office.For more information, visithttps://www.ndctransportinitiativeforasia.org. The authorsthank all internal and external reviewers, including Yihao Xie, Anirudh Narla, andYuntian Zhang from the International Council on Clean Transportation and Dong Ma,Di Peng, and Shuxia Xie from the Chinese Research Academy of EnvironmentalSciences. The contents of this report represent the authors’ opinions only, and donot reflect any position or perspective of the funder or reviewers. International Council on Clean Transportation1500 K Street NW, Suite 650Washington, DC 20005 communications@theicct.org|www.theicct.org|@TheICCT © 2025 International Council on Clean Transportation (ID 262) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY China’s heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) industry has witnessed profound changes, driven byadvancements in vehicle technology, shifting fuel types, and environmental regulations.This report assesses trends in China’s HDV market between 2012 and 2023, a criticalperiod for technological and regulatory developments in the industry. It surveys theevolution of HDV sales by powertrain, vehicle specifications, emissions performance,and the market structure of fuel supply and transmission technologies for HDVs. This analysis finds that diesel vehicles continue to dominate the HDV sector in China,although natural gas and battery electric vehicles have seen notable growth in marketshare in recent years. In terms of vehicle specifications, the HDV industry has showna marked divergence between trucks and tractors on the one hand and buses andcoaches on the other. As illustrated inFigureES1, between 2012 and 2023, trucks andtractors saw large increases in engine power (+74%), total weight (+51%), and enginedisplacement (+30%), while buses and coaches saw declines in all three parameters: of1% for engine power, 32% for total weight, and 32% for engine displacement. Type-approved CO2emissions—which are directly calculated from certified fuelconsumption, the regulated metric in China’s fuel economy standards for HDVs—haveshown a similar divergence. Overall, buses and coaches have recorded a sustaineddecline in CO2emissions since 2013, amounting to a 40% improvement by 2023. Fortrucks and tractors, the road to meeting regulatory targets has been bumpier. Sales-weighted average CO2emissions from trucks and tractors initially increased due tolenient regulations and the exclusion of heavy truck categories—notably dump trucks,which were not regulated by fuel consumption standards until Stage 2 standards tookeffect for all new type-approved models in 2015. Since the introduction of Stage 3standards in 2019, the type-approved CO2emissions of new trucks have fallen sharply,reaching parity with 2013 levels in 2023. This “inverted-U” pattern in Figure ES1 indicatesprogress on fuel consumption control by manufacturers despite growth in power, totalweight, and engine displacement. The adoption of technologies such as common railinjection and exhaust gas recirculation have contributed to improved fuel efficiencyamong trucks. TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive summary....................................................................................................................iIntroduction.................................................................................................................................1Definition, scope, and segmentation of HDVs....................................................................3Sales.............................................................................................................................................4Type-approved CO2emissions...............................................................................................9Tractor-trailers..........................................................................................................................................10Medium and heavy straight trucks..................................................................................................12Dump trucks...............................................................................................................................................14Coaches.......................................................................................................................................................16References................................................................................................................................23Appendix.....................................................................