2023-2024年印度经济调查报告

Government of IndiaMinistry of FinanceDepartment of Economic AffairsEconomic DivisionNorth BlockNew Delhi-110001July, 2024 CONTENTS viiPrefacexvAcknowledgementxviiAbbreviationsxxxivList of TablesxxxvList of ChartsxlivList of Boxes Chapter No.Page No.Name of the Chapter1STATE OF THE ECONOMY: STEADY AS SHE GOES 2Global Economic Scenario9A Resilient Domestic Economy16Macroeconomic Stability Safeguards Growth31Inclusive Growth34Outlook MONETARY MANAGEMENT AND FINANCIALINTERMEDIATION: STABILITY IS THE WATCHWORD 38Introduction39Monetary Developments42Financial Intermediation43Performance of the Banking Sector and Credit Availability63Trends in Indian Capital Markets73Developments in the Insurance Sector77Developments in the Pension Sector82Assessment and Outlook PRICES AND INFLATION: UNDER CONTROL 85Introduction87DomesticRetailInflation89CoreInflationDynamicsinthePost-pandemicWorld93FoodInflation97InterstateVariationsinRetailInflation98OutlookandWayForward101Annexure 1 EXTERNAL SECTOR: STABILITY AMID PLENTY 104Introduction105Changing Global Trade Dynamics107India’s Trade: Resilience Amidst Global Turmoil133Favourable Current Account Balance137Capital Account Balance150International Investment Position 151Stable External Debt Position152Outlook and Challenges MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK: A GROWTH VISION FOR NEWINDIA 155Setting the Context158Key Areas of Policy Focus in the Short to Medium Term165Growth Strategy for Amrit Kaal: Strong, Sustainable and Inclusive176Outlook in the Medium Term CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY TRANSITION: DEALINGWITH TRADE-OFFS 179Introduction183Present Status of India’s Climate Action184Adaptation is Critical for India187Low Carbon Development and Energy Composition200Putting in Place a Market Framework to Price Carbon: Indian CarbonMarket203International Commitments on Climate Finance: The Developments205India’s International Initiatives to Address Climate Change Issues207Conclusion SOCIAL SECTOR: BENEFITS THAT EMPOWER 209Introduction211DovetailingGrowthwithEmpoweringWelfare:AParadigmShift247SocialandEconomicEmpowermentofWomen254Rural Economy: Driving the Growth Engine267Towards Sustainable Development269ConclusionandWayForward EMPLOYMENT AND SKILL DEVELOPMENT: TOWARDS QUALITY 271Introduction272Current Employment Scenario276Youth and female employment290The Evolving Landscape of Jobs in India297Requirement of Job Creation until 2036308Developments and Progress in Skilling317ConclusionandWayForward AGRICULTURE AND FOOD MANAGEMENT: PLENTY OFUPSIDE LEFT IF WE GET IT RIGHT 319Introduction322AgricultureProduction:PerformanceandPromotingCropDiversification337AlliedSectors:AnimalHusbandry,DairyingandFisheriesaresignificantgrowth drivers341Food processing sector (FPI): Processing Potential342Food Management: Social net for food security344Conclusion 10INDUSTRY: SMALL AND MEDIUM MATTERS 347Introduction350Performance of Key Sectors and Related Issues364Cross-cuttingThemes373Conclusion and Outlook SERVICES: FUELLING GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES 375Introduction376Overview Of The Services Sector Performance381Financing Sources for Services Sector Activity382MajorServices:Sector-wisePerformance401Challenges and Opportunities402ConclusionandWayForward INFRASTRUCTURE: LIFTING POTENTIAL GROWTH 405Introduction406Infrastructurefinancing:thepublicexpenditurepush410Developments across infrastructure sectors440Challenges and Opportunities442Facilitation and addressing the bottlenecks445Conclusions and Outlook CLIMATE CHANGE AND INDIA: WHY WE MUST LOOK ATTHE PROBLEM THROUGH OUR LENS 13 448Introduction449WhyistheCurrentApproachFlawed?460Adopting the Dominant Climate Narrative has Negative Implications fortheDevelopingWorld468TheIndianWay:ASustainableLifestyle475Conclusion Preface: Steering the country through compacts andconsensus The economy continues to expand In April, we commenced a new financial year. In May, we learnt that the Indian economy isestimated to have grown 8.2% in real terms in FY24. In June, a new government took office. TheNational Democratic Alliance government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has returnedto power with a historic mandate for a third term. His unprecedented third popular mandatesignals political and policy continuity. The Indian economy is on a strong wicket and stable footing, demonstrating resiliencein the face of geopolitical challenges. The Indian economy has consolidated its post-Covidrecovery with policymakers – fiscal and monetary – ensuring economic and financial stability.Nonetheless, change is the only constant for a country with high growth aspirations. Forthe recovery to be sustained, there has to be heavy lifting on the domestic front because theenvironment has become extraordinarily difficult to reach agreements on key global issues suchas trade, investment and climate. High economic growth in FY24 came on the heels of growth rates of 9.7% and 7.0%,respectively, in the previous two financial years. The headline inflation rate is largely underco