玉米月报：政策增储

1   -2- -3- -4- -5- -6- -7- 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 18.00% 15.65% 15.54% 14.46% 13.74% 12.59%12.71% 12.93% 11.76% 9.92% 8.64% 9.16% 7.89%7.39% 9.21% 8.33% 1128989 8211232 173117372293214022211919 123513771360 17601938 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6000 4000 2000 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% Totalsupply Totaluse Endingstocks StocksToUse 00.00% -8- 美玉米累计�口成交量美玉米周度�口成交量 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 9/210/211/212/21/22/23/24/25/26/27/28/2 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 9/210/211/212/21/22/23/24/25/26/27/28/2 2019/202020/212021/222019/202020/212021/22 2022/232023/242024/252022/232023/242024/25 Corn-Sales/PRO.Corn-Export/PRO. 120%120% 100%100% 80%80% 60%60% 40%40% 20%20% 0% 9/210/211/212/21/22/23/24/25/26/27/28/2 0% 9/210/211/212/21/22/23/24/25/26/27/28/2 2019/202020/212021/222019/202020/212021/22 2022/232023/242024/252022/232023/242024/25 美玉米对华累计�口成交量美玉米对华周度�口成交量 2500 700 586.0432 600 2000 500 389.0609 1500 400300 1000 200 500 0 9/210/211/212/21/22/23/24/25/26/27/28/2 100 0 -100 9/210/211/212/21/22/23/24/25/26/27/28/2 2019/202020/212021/222019/202020/212021/22 2022/232023/242024/252022/232023/242024/25 -9- Year2010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/232023/242024/25PlantedHarvestedYield 88.281.4 152.8 91.9 84 147.2 97.287.4 123.4 95.487.5 158.1 90.683.1 171 8880.8 168.4 9486.7 174.6 90.282.7 176.6 88.981.3 176.4 89.781.3 167.5 90.782.3 171.4 93.385.3 176.7 88.278.7 173.4 94.686.5 177.3 90.782.7 183.1 Beginningstocks 1708 1128 989 821 1232 1731 1737 2293 2140 2221 1919 1235 1377 1360 1760 Production 12447 12360 10780 13829 14216 13602 15148 14609 14340 13620 14111 15074 13651 15341 15143 Imports 28 29 162 36 32 67 57 36 28 42 24 24 39 28 25 Totalsupply 14182 13516 11932 14686 15479 15401 16942 16939 16509 15883 16055 16333 15066 16729 16928 FeedandResidualFood,Seed&Industrial Ethanol&by-productsDomestic,Total ExportsTotaluse 479364285021 11220 1835 13055 454564395011 10985 1543 12527 433360464648 10379 731 11111 5036 5324 5120 5472 5304 5430 5899 5602 5721 5486 5807 5825 6501 6560 6646 6883 7056 6793 6286 6466 6764 6558 6869 6840 5134 5200 5224 5432 5605 5378 4857 5028 5326 5176 5478 5450 11537 11883 11766 12356 12360 12223 12185 12068 12484 12045 12676 12665 1917 1864 1898 2293 2438 2065 1778 2753 2471 1661 2292 2325 13454 13748 13664 14649 14799 14288 13963 14821 14956 13706 14969 14990 Endingstocks 1128 989 821 1232 1731 1737 2293 2140 2221 1919 1235 1377 1360 1760 1938 StocksToUse 8.6% 7.9% 7.4% 9.2% 12.6% 12.7% 15.7% 14.5% 15.5% 13.7% 8.3% 9.21% 9.92% 11.76% 12.93% Corn-World (Nov) (Nov) Year 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/205 AreaHarvested(1000HA) 175,808 184,038 189,059 189,364 188,697 197,202 194,566 192,983 195,190 200,680 207,418 202,142 205,159 203,074 Yield(MT/HA) 5.18 4.91 5.47 5.60 5.41 5.73 5.59 5.87 5.78 5.65 5.87 5.75 5.99 6.01 BeginningStocks(1000MT) 115,328 123,333 145,965 216,674 280,308 313,070 350,632 342,067 325,798 313,589 296,364 314,020 304,585 314,219 Production(1000MT) 910,355 903,265 1,033,821 1,060,907 1,020,916 1,129,230 1,087,058 1,132,814 1,127,883 1,133,672 1,218,349 1,162,994 1,229,114 1,219,403 MYImports(1000MT) 100,631 99,467 125,095 124,997 139,941 138,450 152,884 166,325 167,715 184,930 184,743 173,389 196,200 183,405 TotalSupply(1000MT) 1,126,314 1,126,065 1,304,881 1,402,578 1,441,165 1,580,750 1,590,574 1,641,206 1,621,396 1,632,191 1,699,456 1,650,403 1,729,899 1,717,027 FeedandResidual(1000MT) 525,631 532,013 582,218 597,437 620,320 665,043 679,134 709,685 721,051 732,130 746,945 735,129 771,183 776,498 FSIConsumption(1000MT) 360,402 352,713 374,531 382,115 387,229 403,194 419,896 422,989 414,171 420,601 431,974 430,349 448,849 446,563 TotalDom.Consumption(1000MT) 886,033 884,726 956,749 979,552 1,007,549 1,068,237 1,099,030 1,132,674 1,135,222 1,152,731 1,178,919 1,165,478 1,220,032 1,223,061 MYExports(1000MT) 116,948 95,374 131,458 142,718 120,694 161,881 149,477 182,734 172,585 183,096 206,517 180,340 195,648 189,827 EndingStocks(1000MT) 123,333 145,965 216,674 280,308 312,922 350,632 342,067 325,798 313,589 296,364 314,020 304,585 314,219 304,139 StocksToUse 12.3% 14.9% 19.9% 25.0% 27.7% 28.5% 27.4% 24.8% 24.0% 22.2% 22.7% 22.6% 22.2% 21.5% -10- Corn-USA (Nov) (Nov) Year 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/205 AreaHarvested(1000HA) 33,945 35,356 35,394 33,648 32,680 35,106 33,481 32,848 32,776 33,252 34,394 31,851 35,008 33,472 Yield(MT/HA) 9.22 7.73 9.93 10.73 10.57 10.96 11.08 11.08 10.52 10.76 11.09 10.89 11.13 11.49 BeginningStocks(1000MT) 28,644 25,122 20,859 31,292 43,974 44,123 58,253 54,367 56,823 50,913 31,358 34,975 34,551 44,718 Production(1000MT) 312,789 273,192 351,316 361,136 345,506 384,778 371,096 363,787 344,651 357,819 381,469 3