瞬汻煝疵·⪢槊㝕稝鰑☋ꏕ翞⽟間㷌 䉗㐙낊ꯟ⢟㟲䳀䮵鰑ꓭꓨ㎈勶漩鰑☋ ⪢槊㝕稝鰑☋ꏕ翞⽟間㷌2024䌑11劓30傽 呦䖦間掾 ⪢槊㝕稝鰑分銩楓劓傽蔸劓傽茤徏┱鰂ꓭ㺲┬鳰╚耘克德⡺⯟侅漩椚┬鉿耘⩧⢟䒙⻎僓⪼♑鯴䉕鱂点㝃俚勶漩䉗㐙䓡䕒侅巹ն ガ䉗㐙묛ꓭ⽟⮵氮◟耘⩧鱂点䫌鰑脢溸裯⯈◗缏ꓭ⚃㝕䋀┬鳰ն⽟⻑갫濫耘⩧䭰俚㎈訒ꓭ⚃汻劔䒧ն撬脯劓耘⩧䭦缩点ⲹ♇㸉묛 ꓭ⚃呬卐䧯⸐ⲇն╚ꪍ劻匡澚杅组册ꓨꂊ侓㑐⽕䉗㐙㸉◝姍ꄽ芤낊ꯟ溸⪸峜⻎僓⪢槊⹜耘⩧ꂛ瓨Ⲏꅌ♨⻄德册ꇁꂛ⪝ꮴ䛉⽟劻㸞╬묛ꓭ⚃呬䳀 ❵◗ꂛ┞婢┪巹溸佻临Ⲙⲇնⸯ岓⽟⫐╚╅㐌罔箄䑳㹾ⲹ劔䨿罏闌杅 ⯋儱♨虝⮬⾕묰䉄㮦⢷挩駖溸气侞ꮴ⛽◗䉗㐙㸉❵䍎╚偃溸䬎䗣ն婟㜾德ꮪ茤徏翤뀔嵱䌑焪岓䉗㐙㸞⮃⻓鱪ꁩ┧哇/傽溸❵䍎ꁩⰩꂘ┞뀔劻➶❈䉗㐙ꓨ假駬⛓䓝⯼溸⚃呬寊䌐ꌄ⮕䫌勨鰑ꓭ㎌婟嵤⮃ն⻎僓䉗㐙㸉OPEC+侓瞬⯼冎溸┯燛㴼䙎□类Ⲏ◗⸐ⲇ㹻硅⭀分⺪茤㐃焝劻⫐甯㴼䉗㐙⛰㐃ꪍ劻❵䍎ꁩⰩ溸뀔劻┬⪼侞卸䧶駠劔ꮺն䓝⯼⪢槊缋嵴䚱㜩溸倩椚 ♇┯僻组ⸯ岓괛寛㙨ꪍ㲾㐃愗㐃낊ꯟն ⡺⯟䉗㐙耘⡺⽟⫐耘德⡀⚈䙰缛杅组册⚈⾀鯯侓멚嵟偅璇杅·鯪喖杅 ╬耘德鯯侓ꌄꪍꂘ䳀둛◗䉗㐙㸉⪼睘◝⚈劻䱽⯜⡺ⲏ寊䌐溸뀔劻㸍蔺耘德德⡺侅漩椚┬鉿ն婟㜾耘德劓呦䖦PCE朮⚃䭰俚䌑椚╬.%둛◟⯼ ⡽.%ꄽ芤寊䌐廛⾕鱂둛ն⻎僓耘臅⥈劓劲駖绦锢䳀⯒蝄俚䰕┱뀔劻㝕蔺┞蔺ꄽ芤椚缣缩䭦缩┬ꮴ蔸%缋嵴♇䱹ꂀ劅㝕㹧╃椚ꊙ▂갫濫僓ꭊ溸䲀瓌ꄢ婢鿛⻔剳╚䙎溸侓瞬皒㐙⺪茤儱ꃿ䓝溸銩僻耘臅⥈⫐ꌄ㸉 ꮴ䛉溸䘒䍳焝劻⫐䌔绪⺇杅组册苞ꄑ䔕⿱䉗㐙뀔駉耘臅⥈劓ꮴ䛉溸婢⚩㝕嚤椚┯劲⢷婝ն德⡺㐃鯯侓侓瞬ⲇ溸䲀Ⲙ┬䌑勒㐌⽶⡺❵缕㝕䋀㙨Ⲏն╚ꪍ劻匡澚㝠鉿뀔駉㸞缣缩㵄类佻䭦䙎溸鯴䉕侓瞬⛰갫濫德⡺⾕┺뀉⡺❵缕溸㙨Ⲏ德⡺侅漩椚溸┬鉿疿ꭊ⺪茤⺇⯒ꮺ⯜ն 寤椚䉗㐙耘⩧䭰俚耘德劓呦䖦PCE朮⚃䭰俚廛⾕鱂둛⺖Ⲏ焝劻⫐耘臅⥈㸉ꮴ䛉䘒䍳⫐䌔绪⺇杅组册苞ꄑ䔕⿱䉗㐙㸉耘臅⥈ꮴ䛉溸뀔劻 鿲点ն婟㜾⚢组┱묰䉄㮦溸⢷挩駖ꮴ⛽◗䉗㐙溸ꉍꯟ괛寛ꂛ┞婢⯸䒙◗耘⩧溸ꉍꯟ⼕⽕ⲇն╚ꪍ劻匡澚耘臅⥈ꮴ䛉╬䉗㐙溸⪴駮䙎뀔劻⪢槊⹜耘 ⩧鱶ⲹ婞㐃Ⲏ䗪㸉耘⩧溸缏卐䙎괛寛⺪茤ꄢ婢⯸䒙耘⩧䭰俚劔労鱂鿞ն 耘⩧⩽傽⩧⽟⫐╅☓㐌ⶔ呦䖦CPI⻎嬠㙨ꅌꁒ⯒.%둛◟뀔劻溸 .%┻僻兇둛◟⯼⡽.%ꂘ┞俚䰕Ⲏ点◗䉗㐙㸉傽续㝠鉿㐃劓Ⲏ䛉溸뀔劻ꂛ┞婢佻临◗傽⩧溸┪巹ն㠁卸傽续㝠鉿㐃劓駖䛉劲駖┪ꄑ䭃ꂛ┞婢Ⲏ䛉傽⩧劔労缣缩裯䕒佻临ն 勶漩䉗㐙⪢槊㝃俚勶漩䉗㐙銩⻓鿲㟲ն耘臅⥈劓劲駖绦锢兇獏焝劻耘臅 ⥈㸉ꮴ䛉䘒䍳⫐䌔绪⺇杅组册苞ꄑ䔕⿱⺖Ⲏ⚢组┱묰䉄㮦溸⢷挩駖䳀䮵䉗㐙낊ꯟ⢟㟲䫌鰑脢䐷㢽ꓨ假鰑分ꏕ翞ն䓝⯼耘德⪿㒘溸䧯ꪍ鉿╃㲾㐃⛓⡽ꁩ둛溸ꭄ뀨╚ꪍ劻ꏕ翞䙎⚃嬠劔䨿ꮴ⛽ն 낊ꯟ䳀獏德⫐侓瞬ⲇ䍳侞卸┯뀔劻낊ꯟ⪢槊㝕ꄑ㸾㓪訒㴼⻑侓瞬┯燛㴼낊ꯟ䉗㐙䝠缦┯甯㴼낊ꯟ㐌罔㎌筷䪑Ⲙ낊ꯟն ⮕卥䉞 匤鱪 010-8092-7696 yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn ⮕卥䉞溫駘罒焺S 潸⪸煝疵 2024-11-20㝠㎼⚕䑜뀖┺뀨㝠㎼⚕侊긞ⲙ䲀䉗㐙 ⛓⡽缏卐ꓨ㗛 2024-11-19⮵瘯2025:♨燛㴼䙎䬿┯燛㴼䙎 2024-11-13╚駩A䭰俚䫌鰑勨⚷䱲駐㝕骮☊ ⺪鱎薌 2024-11-08☭㝕䊬㣘⚷⻑㠁✇澚䉗㐙 2024-11-08杅组册热ꄑ⻑耘臅⥈ꮴ䛉䧶鱶◟驐䡪 2024-11-06耘㎼㝕ꄑ㸾㓪訒㴼㸉鰑勔䉗㐙䔕⿱⭠ ✇ 2024-11-03A艧2024䌑┩㳌䫟╃缥掾駬ꓭ鄌鉿 ╃䊎ⲘA艧漥⯈⟶㜩 2024-10-30耘㎼㝕ꄑ☆儅瞬汻杅组册☆儅vs ꓧ偅☆儅 2024-10-28Q⪫Ⳬ㕈ꓭ䭦♎⮕卥⮱升㑊搑䍳┪ⶬ氲ⲇ駦㜜Ⲏ♎兇詇 2024-10-28㝕掾㝕勨ꆱ鰑勔䉗㐙鰘茤둛鯵ꓪ 㺥 2024-10-25䉗㐙䫌鰑勨ꆱ▇䌔鯺ꓨ缀 2024-10-19ꓭ鄌銏駢㑐䌑⚷┞鉿┞⚷┞㹾駚騅闌騣䉗㐙⫙ꁹ侓瞬⩽楓뀔劻 2024-10-1810劓17傽⪸◟➶ꂛ䨼㐌分哈䎙䌐甯 㺥䉘⚷臅⻉闌騣◩ꌄ㣘㐌分缀⻉䭐䘤▂澚 www.chinastock.com.cn駩⯟煝疵䫟⼴騟ⲏ䖪꭛騣婞倁劅⻑溸╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟艧⚌劔ꮺ⪫⺶⩹鯰㛽僻 1 潨Ca䓡talog ┞յ⪢槊㝕稝鰑☋銩楓 ◝յ㝕㴵ガ ┞묛ꓭ䉗㐙 ◝ⸯ岓䉗㐙 ┩յ⡺⯟䉗㐙 ┞耘⡺侅漩椚 ◝╚⡺侅漩椚 ㎃յ寤椚䉗㐙 ┞耘⩧䭰俚 ◝姚⩧⩽耘⩧ ┩蝠꩗⩽耘⩧ ㎃耘⩧⩽傽⩧ ◩耘⩧⩽☭宑䉕 ◩յ勶漩䉗㐙 ⪮յ낊ꯟ䳀獏 騟ⲏ䖪꭛騣婞倁劅⻑溸╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟艧⚌劔ꮺ⪫⺶⩹鯰㛽僻ն ┞յ⪢槊㝕稝鰑☋銩楓 劓傽蔸劓傽耘德⡀⚈䙰缛杅组册㵌䉘㸉䨿劔╚德ꂛ⺛ガⲎ䔰%溸⪸瓭耘德鯯侓ꌄꪍ䳀⻐☭鯪喖杅銩獏⭀瓭յ侒卄硅⯜缰䭦耘⩧㐌⛻㸞儱缋嵴侓瞬ꓨ掾杅组册ꂖ䳀⻐呬ꓧ㸸╬鰅儅♣銩点騫⪸瓭╬ꓨ锢侓瞬䈰⪾ն耘臅⥈溸劓劲駖绦锢兇獏㴸⽄㸉ꄽ芤罏闌⾕点ⲦⲧⲘⲇ䉗㐙劔⟥䖦绪匡ꮴ䛉㸞庱ꂛ䲀ꂛ侓瞬騫俠⺆⬑◟缋嵴俚䰕ն劓耘德呦䖦PCE朮⚃䭰俚⻎嬠┪巹.%⽕䉗㐙㸉ꄽ芤䒧溸䬎䗣ն╚德⽶긖劓缋嵴受䭦甯㴼䪆䑳⯜ꅐ╃PMI╬.%ꂞ缩┩╗劓┪ⶬ긌⯜ꅐ╃PMI汻劔┬ꮴն┪駩յ屽广瞏䭰俚騫俠呤续艧䌔鯺ꓨ缀뀖㔔ꁹ匡侓瞬⯈㟲ն 䉗㐙銩⻓⽶긖茤徏┱鰂ꓭ㺲㝕䋀┬鳰╚耘克德⡺⯟侅漩椚┬鉿耘⩧⢟䒙⻎僓⪼♑鯴䉕鱂点㝃俚勶漩䉗㐙䓡䕒侅巹ն⪾✅匡澚LMEꨒ巹.%DCE꧇焸焪巹.%NYMEX㝙撬官巹.%⮱╃升䭰巹.%苪䗅僻䭰俚巹.%┪駩䭰俚巹.%广駩䧯䭰巹 .%䖎德DAX巹.%姚⩧⩽耘⩧巹.%ꇔ樴偅䈰╃䭰俚巹.%蝠꩗⩽耘⩧巹 .%绯偅ꁒ⩴䭰俚巹.%吙册巹.%䚔气䭰俚巹.%ⷧ䍳SENSEX巹 .%CBOT㝕骀巹.%LMEꧢ巹.%SHFE酧绵ꦨ巹.%蝠德㶡僓巹 .%姚⩧ⶔSTOXX巹.%耘⩧⩽☭宑䉕鳰.%㶡僓假Ⲏ㑗嶯㿔䭰俚鳰.%傽缋鳰.%岻德CAC鳰.%CBOT椝稌鳰.%COMEX溮ꧼ鳰.%LME ꧣ鳰.%COMEX묛ꓭ鳰.%耘⩧䭰俚鳰.%CBOT㸰뫘鳰.%耘⩧⩽傽⩧鳰.%ICE䉘岓鳰.%NYMEXWTIⸯ岓鳰.%䌑劻╚⡺德⡺侅漩椚┬鉿. ╗㕈掾䌑劻耘德德⡺侅漩椚┬鉿╗㕈掾ն ㎽111劓25傽蔸11劓29傽⪢槊㝕稝鰑分銩⻓⡺⯟⺈Ⲙ⛻╬BP⪼✍鰑分╬% (%)(BP) 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 DCLMEꨒ NYMEE꧇焸焪 X㝙撬官 ⮱╃升䭰 苪䗅僻䭰俚 ┪駩䭰俚 广駩䧯䭰 䖎德DAX ꇔ樴姚⩧⩽耘⩧ 偅䈰╃䭰俚 绯蝠꩗⩽耘⩧ 偅ꁒ⩴䭰俚 吙册500 ⷧ䍳S䚔气䭰俚 ENSEX30 CBOT㝕骀 SHFLMEꧢ 蝠E酧绵ꦨ 姚德㶡僓100 ⩧ⶔSTOXX 耘⩧⩽☭宑䉕 㶡僓假Ⲏ㑗嶯㿔䭰俚 岻傽缋225 德CAC40 CCBOT椝稌 OMEX溮ꧼ COMLMEꧣ EX묛ꓭ C耘⩧䭰俚 BOT㸰뫘 耘⩧⩽傽⩧ NYMEXICE䉘岓 10䌑劻╚⡺WTIⸯ岓 10䌑劻耘德德⡺侅漩椚 德⡺侅漩椚 -25 鰑倣匡徏Wind╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟煝疵ꯗ ◝յ㝕㴵ガ ┞묛ꓭ䉗㐙 续⽟묛ꓭ⚃呬⼯⻓괭衄┬鳰ն⽟⮵氮◟耘⩧鱂点䫌鰑脢溸裯⯈◗缏ꓭ⚃㝕䋀┬鳰ն⽟⻑갫濫耘⩧䭰俚㎈訒ꓭ⚃汻劔䒧ն撬脯劓耘⩧䭦缩点ⲹ♇㸉묛ꓭ⚃呬卐䧯⸐ⲇն╚ꪍ劻匡澚杅组册ꓨꂊ侓㑐⽕䉗㐙㸉◝姍ꄽ芤낊ꯟ溸⪸峜⻎僓⪢槊⹜耘⩧ꂛ瓨Ⲏꅌ♨⻄德册ꇁꂛ⪝ꮴ䛉⽟劻㸞╬묛ꓭ⚃呬䳀❵◗ꂛ┞婢┪巹溸佻临Ⲙⲇն䨗蔸劓傽COMEX묛ꓭ劻鯴侅漽⚃╬.耘⩧/漯⺶⛆俌ꓭ⻓╬.耘⩧/漯⺶ն ㎽2VIX䭰俚┱COMEX묛ꓭ劻鯴侅漽⚃㎽3耘德ꄽ芤䭰俚德⡺侅漩椚┱⛆俌ꓭ⻓ 40吙⬮册㸸500峒Ⲙ椚䭰俚(VIX) (美元/盎29司00) 3.0(%)耘德ꄽ芤䭰俚德⡺侅漩椚:10䌑 (美元/盎2司90)0 劻鯴侅漽⚃(ꂞ缩):COMEX묛ꓭ⺯鿣 30 20 2023-12-29 2024-01-29 2024-02-29 2024-03-31 2024-04-30 2024-05-31 2024-06-30 2024-07-31 2024-08-31 2024-09-30 2024-10-31 10 2700 2500 2300 2100 1900 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 ⛆俌ꓭ楓⺯鿣 2700 2500 2300 2100 2023-12-29 2024-01-29 2024-02-29 2024-03-31 2024-04-30 2024-05-31 2024-06-30 2024-07-31 2024-08-31 2024-09-30 2024-10-31 1900 鰑倣匡徏Wind╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟煝疵ꯗ鰑倣匡徏Wind╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟煝疵ꯗ ◝ⸯ岓䉗㐙 ㎽4耘德EIA⾕APIⸯ岓䍍㲾㎽5㐌罔侓岖낊ꯟ䭰俚 1500(万桶) 1000 500 0 -500 2024-09-20 2024-09-27 2024-10-04 2024-10-11 2024-10-18 2024-10-25 2024-11-01 2024-11-08 2024-11-15 2024-11-22 -1000 耘德:API䍍㲾:ⸯ岓:楒嬠㙨⭀ 40(01985-2019年=100) 300 200 100 2023-12-29 2024-01-29 2024-02-29 2024-03-31 2024-04-30 2024-05-31 2024-06-30 2024-07-31 2024-08-31 2024-09-30 2024-10-31 0 㐌罔侓岖낊ꯟ䭰俚 鰑倣匡徏Wind╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟煝疵ꯗ鰑倣匡徏Wind╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟煝疵ꯗ 续⽟ⸯ岓⚃呬괭衄┬鳰ն⽟⫐╚╅㐌罔箄䑳㹾ⲹ劔䨿罏闌杅⯋儱♨虝⮬⾕묰䉄㮦⢷挩駖溸气侞ꮴ⛽◗䉗㐙㸉❵䍎╚偃溸䬎䗣ն婟㜾德ꮪ茤徏翤뀔嵱䌑焪岓䉗㐙㸞⮃⻓鱪ꁩ ┧哇/傽溸❵䍎ꁩⰩꂘ┞뀔劻➶❈䉗㐙ꓨ假駬⛓䓝⯼溸⚃呬寊䌐ꌄ⮕䫌勨鰑ꓭ㎌婟嵤⮃ն⻎僓䉗㐙㸉OPEC+侓瞬⯼冎溸┯燛㴼䙎□类Ⲏ◗⸐ⲇ㹻硅⭀分⺪茤㐃焝劻⫐甯㴼䉗㐙⛰㐃 ꪍ劻❵䍎ꁩⰩ溸뀔劻┬⪼侞卸䧶駠劔ꮺն䓝⯼⪢槊缋嵴䚱㜩溸倩椚♇┯僻组ⸯ岓괛寛㙨ꪍ㲾 㐃愗㐃낊ꯟն䨗蔸劓傽WTIⸯ岓劻鯴缏砯⚃╬.耘⩧/哇BRENTⸯ岓劻鯴缏砯 ⚃╬.耘⩧/哇ն ┩յ⡺⯟䉗㐙 ┞耘⡺侅漩椚 续⽟耘⡺侅漩椚㝕䋀┬鉿ն⽟⫐耘德⡀⚈䙰缛杅组册⚈⾀鯯侓멚嵟偅璇杅·鯪喖杅╬耘德鯯侓ꌄꪍꂘ䳀둛◗䉗㐙㸉⪼睘◝⚈劻䱽⯜⡺ⲏ寊䌐溸뀔劻㸍蔺耘德德⡺侅漩椚┬鉿ն婟㜾耘德劓呦䖦PCE朮⚃䭰俚䌑椚╬.%둛◟⯼⡽.%ꄽ芤寊䌐廛⾕鱂둛ն⻎僓耘臅⥈ 劓劲駖绦锢䳀⯒蝄俚䰕┱뀔劻㝕蔺┞蔺ꄽ芤椚缣缩䭦缩┬ꮴ蔸%缋嵴♇䱹ꂀ劅㝕㹧╃椚ꊙ▂갫濫僓ꭊ溸䲀瓌ꄢ婢鿛⻔剳╚䙎溸侓瞬皒㐙⺪茤儱ꃿ䓝溸銩僻耘臅⥈⫐ꌄ㸉ꮴ䛉溸䘒䍳焝劻⫐䌔绪⺇杅组册苞ꄑ䔕⿱䉗㐙뀔駉耘臅⥈劓ꮴ䛉溸婢⚩㝕嚤椚┯劲⢷婝ն䨗蔸 劓傽䌑劻耘德德⡺侅漩椚╬.%䌑劻耘德德⡺侅漩椚╬.%ն ㎽6耘德PCE┱呦䖦PCE⻎楒嬠㎽7耘德⮵騟㝤