生猪月报：11月资金减仓博弈，春节合约利空有限

1  Q4  -1- -2- -3- 30,00030,000 25,00025,000 20,00020,000 15,00015,000 10,00010,000 5,0005,000 0 2/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/11/1 0 4/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/11/12/13/1 1 LH2201 LH2301 LH2401 LH2501 3 LH2203 LH2303 LH2403 LH2503 5 LH2205 LH2305 LH2405 LH2505 7 LH2207 LH2307 LH2407 LH2507 25,00025,000 20,00020,000 15,00015,000 10,00010,000 5,0005,000 0 6/17/18/19/110/111/112/11/12/13/14/15/1 0 8/19/110/111/112/11/12/13/14/15/16/17/1 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 9 LH2109LH2209LH2309LH2409LH2509 30,000 11 LH2111 LH2211 LH2311 LH2411 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 10/1 11/112/11/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/1 0 12/11/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/1 -4- 30,000 25,000 / 1 LH2201 LH2301 LH2401 LH2501 1-3 5,000 4,000LH2201-LH2203LH2301-LH2303 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 LH2401-LH2403LH2501-LH2503 0 2/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/11/1 -2,000 4/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 / 6,000 / 1-5 LH2201-LH2205 LH2301-LH2305 LH2401-LH2405 LH2501-LH2505 1-7 6,000 4,000 4,000 LH2201-LH2207LH2301-LH2307 LH2401-LH2407LH2501-LH2507 2,0002,000 00 -2,000-2,000 -4,000 6/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 -4,000 8/19/110/111/112/1 / 6,000 / 1-11 LH2201-LH2211 LH2301-LH2311 LH2401-LH2411 LH2501-LH2511 6,000 1-9 4,000 2,000 LH2201-LH2209LH2301-LH2309 LH2401-LH2409LH2501-LH2509 4,000 2,000 00 -2,000-2,000 -4,000-4,000 -6,000 10/110/1110/2110/3111/1011/2011/3012/1012/2012/30 -6,000 12/112/612/1112/1612/2112/2612/31 -5- 45.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 2,5007,000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1/1 15KG 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 0 1/1 50KG 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 15.00 13.00 11.00 9.00 1.20 150-120kg 175-120kg 200-120kg 120kg 0.70 0.20 -0.30 16.00 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 7.00 5.00 2021/6/32021/12/32022/6/32022/12/32023/6/32023/12/32024/6/3 -0.80 -1.30 4.00 2.00 0.00 1/1 2/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 -6- 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 22.00160,000 21.00 20.00 150,000 19.00140,000 18.00 17.00 130,000 16.00120,000 15.00 14.00 110,000 13.00 2024/2/182024/3/182024/4/182024/5/182024/6/182024/7/182024/8/18 100,000 -7- 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 135.00 130.00 125.00 120.00 115.00 110.00 105.00 100.00 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 %20.00% 15.00% 90KG 201920202021202220232024 %40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 150KG 201920202021202220232024 25.00% 10.00%20.00% 15.00% 5.00%10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 1/1 2/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 0.00% 1/1 2/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 -8- 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 -9- 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 -500 -1,000 2010/1/82011/7/82013/1/82014/7/82016/1/82017/7/82019/1/82020/7/82022/1/82023/7/8 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 -500 -1,000 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 3,000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 -10- 2022 2023 2024 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 -11- 4,500 4,3624,3794,3884,3904,367 4,343 4,3054,284 4,258 4,2964,271 4,2414,240 4,210 4,1584,142 4,0674,042 4,0384,0414,0364,062 3,9923,9863,996 4,400 4,300 4,200 4,100 4,000 3,900 3,800 3,700 2022-09 2022-12 2023-03 2023-06 2023-09 2023-12 2024-03 2024-06 2024-09 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 % 5.00%12.00 4.00% 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 3.00%11.50 2.00%11.00 1.00%10.50 0.00% -1.00%10.00 400,000 200,000 0 2020-022020-11 2021-082022-052023-022023-112024-08 -2.00% -3.00% -4.00% -5.00% -6.00% 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.00 1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1 94%85.00% 92% 90% 88% 86% 84% 82% 80.00% 75.00% 70.00% 65.00% 80% 2020-042020-102021-042021-102022-042022-102023-042023-102024-04 60.00% 2020-042020-102021-042021-102022-042022-102023-042023-102024-04 -12- -13- -14-