投资收益大幅增加，回款加速现金流改善

证券研究报告 投资评级:增持(维持)核心观点 基本数据 2024-10-31 事件：2024Q1-3营收428.88亿元同降8.57%；归母净利润14.99亿元同增0. 收盘价(元)6.85 流通股本(亿股)31.44 每股净资产(元)9.41 总股本(亿股)31.44 最近12月市场表现 隧道股份 上证指数 沪深300 基础建设 31% 21% 10% 0% -11% -21% 分析师毕春晖 SAC证书编号：S0160522070001 bich@ctsec.com 相关报告 1.《毛利率改善现金流承压，数字信息业务较快增长》2024-08-28 2.《分红率同比提升，数字化转型值得期待》2024-04-21 3.《收入稳中有增，经营回款同比改善》2023-10-31 35%；扣非归母净利润12.98亿元同降8.53%。Q3营收148.54亿元同降23. 2%；归母净利润7.14亿元同降0.12%；扣非归母净利润6.2亿元同降11.1% 传统业务新签稳中有增，上海市外及海外扩张成效显著。公司2024Q1-3新签订单657.05亿元同增9.46%，其中施工、设计、运营、数字业务分别实现新签订单569.68/38.16/44.67/4.53亿元，分别同增13.26%/-29.57%/3.61%/- -，施工业务新签稳中有增，有力保障营收持续增长。施工业务中能源、道路及市政业务快速增长，按业务类型分，轨交/市政/能源/道路/房产/环境及其他业务分别实现新签106.59/212.06/79.03/65.39/64.19/25.80/16.62亿元，分别同比-21%/43.16%/4.41%/52.16%/-17.01%/--/-30.49%；分地区看，上海市内、市外以及海外施工业务分别实现新签289.07/251.80/28.81亿元，分别同比11.11%/3.70%/--，上海市外及海外扩张成效显著。 投资收益增加提振业绩，经营性现金流改善。公司2024Q1-3毛利率为11.65%同降0.22pct略有承压；期间费用率10.35%同增1.02pct；其中公司销售/管理及研发/财务费用率分别为0.01%/7.57%/2.77%，同比变动0.00pct/0.69pct/0.33pct。资产及信用减值损失率0.36%同降0.32pct；投资收益 15.9亿元，上年同期为11.57亿元（占收入比例3.71%同增1.24pct）；归属净利率3.5%同增0.31pct；公司2024Q1-3经营性活动现金净流入23.92亿元，较上年同期多流入20.25亿元，系应收账款收回增加；收现比105.08%同增5.1pct付现比96.83%同降4.21pct；截至9月底公司应收账款及票据、存货+合同资产、应付账款及票据、预收账款+合同负债规模分别为209.1/416.64/689.55/97.12亿元，较年初同比变动-4.24%/4.48%/-6.33%/24.98% 投资建议：我们预计公司2024-2026年归母净利润为29.8/31.5/33.2亿元，同增1.47%/5.74%/5.2%。对应PE分别为7.21/6.82/6.48倍，维持“增持”评级。 风险提示：稳增长力度不及预期；宏观经济波动；下游需求萎靡。盈利预测： 2022A2023A2024E2025E2026E 营业收入(百万元) 72297 74193 74691 78417 84486 收入增长率(%) 16.18 2.62 0.67 4.99 7.74 归母净利润(百万元) 2855 2939 2982 3153 3317 净利润增长率(%) 19.32 2.92 1.47 5.74 5.20 EPS(元) 0.91 0.93 0.95 1.00 1.06 PE 5.79 6.19 7.21 6.82 6.48 ROE(%) 10.37 10.16 9.68 9.60 9.46 PB 0.60 0.63 0.70 0.65 0.61 数据来源：wind数据，财通证券研究所（以2024年10月31日收盘价计算） 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 公司财务报表及指标预测 利润表(百万元)2022A2023A2024E2025E2026E财务指标 2022A2023A2024E2025E2026E 营业收入72296.9374193.2574690.9978416.9784486.06成长性 减:营业成本63438.7366565.1566632.7969578.8674668.07营业收入增长率16.2%2.6%0.7%5.0%7.7% 营业税费133.30168.34169.47177.92191.69营业利润增长率30.8%0.9%2.3%5.7%5.2% 销售费用5.497.297.347.718.30净利润增长率19.3%2.9%1.5%5.7%5.2% 管理费用1684.771874.411867.271921.222027.67EBITDA增长率5.1%-25.9%4.4%13.6%17.7% 研发费用2686.432976.862996.833097.473294.96EBIT增长率-1.1%-41.0%34.3%19.6%20.1% 财务费用1470.661730.171525.231604.681665.59NOPLAT增长率-4.6%-39.4%34.3%19.6%20.1% 资产减值损失-29.64-74.93-30.00-35.00-40.00投资资本增长率7.5%3.5%3.7%3.4%3.2% 加:公允价值变动收益21.2517.230.000.000.00净资产增长率16.2%4.5%5.9%6.1%6.1% 投资和汇兑收益945.042979.292614.182352.512112.15利润率 营业利润3873.793910.293999.264228.274447.64毛利率12.3%10.3%10.8%11.3%11.6% 加:营业外净收支-6.9021.00-10.00-10.00-10.00营业利润率5.4%5.3%5.4%5.4%5.3% 利润总额3866.893931.293989.264218.274437.64净利润率4.2%4.3%4.3%4.3%4.2% 减:所得税827.16756.77767.93812.01854.24EBITDA/营业收入7.9%5.7%5.9%6.4%7.0% 净利润2855.362938.832982.163153.353317.34EBIT/营业收入6.0%3.5%4.6%5.2%5.8% 资产负债表(百万元)2022A2023A2024E2025E2026E运营效率 货币资金20599.5121818.1321203.2521241.7122741.22固定资产周转天数2221212018 交易性金融资产0.000.000.000.000.00流动营业资本周转天数-110-122-116-108-102 应收账款20759.9721826.0421908.6522413.2822365.32流动资产周转天数413429423412395 应收票据58.049.5931.9011.6635.27应收账款周转天数10310310610397 预付账款1046.13815.04815.87851.94914.25存货周转天数45666 存货676.391174.531016.561121.771126.23总资产周转天数704764784760722 其他流动资产1392.051468.461468.461468.461468.46投资资本周转天数349352362357342 可供出售金融资产投资回报率 持有至到期投资ROE10.4%10.2%9.7%9.6%9.5% 长期股权投资5486.188023.7410023.7411523.7412723.74ROA1.9%1.8%1.8%1.9%1.9% 投资性房地产868.84846.24823.63801.02778.41ROIC4.9%2.9%3.7%4.3%5.0% 固定资产4424.184173.754211.284233.054239.07费用率 在建工程3625.523782.543939.564096.574253.59销售费用率0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 无形资产4755.894894.715052.485210.255368.02管理费用率2.3%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.4% 其他非流动资产20963.8522664.2922664.2922664.2922664.29财务费用率2.0%2.3%2.0%2.0%2.0% 资产总额152876.77161915.65163563.30167349.61171766.94三费/营业收入4.4%4.9%4.6%4.5%4.4% 短期债务7672.146101.945601.945101.944601.94偿债能力 应付账款65152.8673599.2972992.8473895.8775440.26资产负债率77.7%78.0%76.9%76.1%75.2% 应付票据290.6717.9019.1119.5421.94负债权益比348.1%354.1%333.0%317.6%303.8% 其他流动负债1646.432750.912750.912750.912750.91流动比率0.900.910.910.930.94 长期借款22112.8621442.0921442.0921442.0921442.09速动比率0.470.470.470.470.48 其他非流动负债844.15755.52755.52755.52755.52利息保障倍数2.811.402.382.813.34 负债总额118756.89126261.94125788.26127278.31129232.24分红指标 少数股东权益6572.426716.386955.567208.467474.52DPS(元)0.270.330.350.350.36 股本3144.103144.103144.103144.103144.10分红比率0.300.350.370.350.34 留存收益16713.4818489.0020371.1622414.5124611.86股息收益率5.1%5.7%5.1%5.2%5.2% 股东权益34119.8835653.7137775.0540071.3042534.70业绩和估值指标2022A2023A2024E2025E2026E 现金流量表(百万元)2022A2023A2024E2025E2026EEPS(元)0.910.930.951.001.06 净利润2855.362938.832982.163153.353317.34BVPS(元)8.769.209.8010.4511.15 加:折旧和摊销1374.961670.49976.87901.62962.37PE(X)5.86.27.26.86.5 资产减值准备213.02288.06280.00335.00490.00PB(X)0.60.60.70.70.6 公允价值变动损失-21.73-17.230.000.000.00P/FCF 财务费用1604.441825.981443.411466.711478.01P/S0.20.20.30.30.3 投资收益-945.04-2979.29-2614.18-2352.51-2112.15EV/EBITDA5.47.68.37.36.0 少数股东损益184.37235.70239.18252.91266.06CAGR(%) 营运资金的变动-1237.22-893.14-1271.01-972.345.81PEG0.32.14.91.21.2 经营活动产生现金流量4046.533178.372046.422794.744417.45RO