乌克兰：住宅物业价格指数（RPPI）技术援助报告访问团（2024年7月15日至19日）（英）

IMF Technical Assistance Report – Ukraine RPPI Mission

Summary of Mission Outcomes and Priority Recommendations

1. Mission Overview: A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted from July 15–19, 2024, to help Ukraine develop processes for compiling the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI). This mission aimed to:

   • Develop R scripts to clean data from an online real estate platform.
   • Implement updated methods for index compilation.
   • Increase the capacity of State Statistical Service of Ukraine (SSSU) staff.

2. Commitment to Improvements: The Ukrainian authorities are committed to enhancing the reliability of the RPPI and other real estate market indicators. These improvements are crucial for assessing property market developments, risks, and linkages with financial soundness, as well as for IMF surveillance. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) and Ministry of Justice are working on increasing real estate market transparency and strengthening systemic risk analysis.

3. Staff Training: The SSSU should provide staff with training in the R statistical package to enable them to develop and maintain the necessary coding skills. Initial R scripts were developed during the mission, but it is critical that staff take ownership and continue to refine these scripts.

4. Data Processing: Currently, the SSSU uses Microsoft Excel to process and filter online listings data from the OLX platform, a task that typically takes two weeks. R scripts were developed to automate this process, and officials were able to run the scripts and export clean data files. Further automation is recommended to reduce manual effort.

5. Data Expansion: The SSSU should meet with OLX to expand the breadth and coverage of the quarterly file. This includes extending the dataset to include houses (currently only apartments are included) and collecting more detailed information on the location of properties for sale. Additionally, the SSSU should experiment with using OLX data for new apartments, which are currently compiled using survey data.

6. Stratification and Index Calculation: A new stratification based on NUTS1 regional classification was developed, splitting the real estate market into 16 strata. Hedonic indices were compiled, showing significant price increases in western regions and little growth or even declines in eastern regions affected by the war.

7. Priority Recommendations:

   • Identify Appropriate IT Supports: Ensure staff can effectively use the R statistical package by September 30, 2024.
   • Locate Raw Data Files: Retrieve raw data files from OLX for each quarter starting from 2023 Q1 by September 30, 2024.
   • Investigate Unusual Price Changes: Analyze unusual price changes for new apartments in 2024 Q2 by September 30, 2024.
   • Implement New R Scripts: Regularly process and clean OLX data using new R scripts by December 31, 2024.
   • Gather More Information: Collect additional information on apartments categorized as "construction in progress" by December 31, 2024.
   • Relax Data Filtering: Gradually expand the coverage of the RPPI over time by June 30, 2025.
   • Experiment with OLX Data: Use OLX data for new apartments instead of survey data by June 30, 2025.
   • Extend Data Coverage: Include houses in the dataset by December 31, 2025.
   • Collect Detailed Location Information: Gather more detailed information on the location of apartments for sale by December 31, 2025.
   • Implement Hedonic Methods: Use the time-dummy hedonic (TDH) method for index calculation by March 31, 2025.
   • Rolling Window Method: Extend the TDH method using a rolling window by March 31, 2025.
   • Outlier Detection: Use Cook’s Distance for outlier detection by March 31, 2025.
   • Expenditure Weights: Use OLX data for expenditure weights by March 31, 2025.

Detailed Technical Assessment and Recommendations

1. Data Sources: The mission focused on developing R scripts to clean data from the OLX platform and implementing updated methods for index compilation. The primary data source is the OLX platform, with plans to expand to include houses and more detailed location information.

2. Compilation Methods: A new stratification based on NUTS1 regional classification was developed, and experimental hedonic indices were compiled. Significant price increases were observed in western regions, while eastern regions showed little growth or even declines.

3. Dissemination: The RPPI will be disseminated through a compilation spreadsheet in MS Excel, using a set of expenditure weights to aggregate the price indices for different strata.