2024全球金融稳定报告

GLOBALFINANCIALSTABILITYREPORT Steadying the Course: Uncertainty,Artificial Intelligence, and Financial Stability 2024OCT INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND GLOBALFINANCIALSTABILITYREPORT Steadying the Course: Uncertainty,Artificial Intelligence, and Financial Stability 2024OCT ©2024 International Monetary Fund Cover and Design: IMF CSF Creative Solutions DivisionComposition: Absolute Service, Inc. Cataloging-in-Publication Data IMF Library Names: International Monetary Fund.Title: Global financial stability report.Other titles: GFSR | World economic and financial surveys, 0258-7440Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2002- | Semiannual | Some issues also have thematictitles. | Began with issue for March 2002.Subjects: LCSH: Capital market—Statistics—Periodicals. | International finance—Forecasting—Periodicals. |Economic stabilization—Periodicals.Classification: LCC HG4523.G557 ISBNs:979-8-40027-757-3 (paper)979-8-40027-768-9 (ePub)979-8-40027-761-0 (web PDF) Disclaimer:TheGlobal Financial Stability Reportis a survey by the IMF staff published twice a year,in the spring and fall. The report draws out the financial ramifications of economic issues highlightedin the IMF’s World Economic Outlook. The report was prepared by IMF staff and has benefitedfrom comments and suggestions from Executive Directors following their discussion of the reporton October 8, 2024. The views expressed in this publication are those of the IMF staff and do notnecessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Directors or their national authorities. Recommended citation:International Monetary Fund. 2024.Global Financial Stability Report: Steadyingthe Course: Uncertainty, Artificial Intelligence, and Financial Stability. Washington, DC. October. Please send orders to:International Monetary Fund, Publications ServicesPO Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, USATel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail: publications@IMF.orgbookstore.IMF.orgeLibrary.IMF.org Assumptions and Conventionsvii Further Informationviii ix Executive Summaryxiii IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, October 2024xvii Chapter 1. Steadying the Course: Financial Markets Navigate Uncertainty1 Chapter1 at a Glance1Introduction2Monetary and Financial Developments3Growth-at-Risk, the Global Macrofinancial Stability Assessment13Emerging Markets14Corporate Credit26Real Estate31Bank and Nonbank Financial Intermediaries36Policy Recommendations41Box 1.1. Synthetic Risk Transfers: Managing Risks or Creating New Ones?44Box 1.2. Interconnectedness Through Tokenization46Box 1.3. Summertime Blues: The Carry Trade Unwind and VIX Surge of August 202448Box 1.4. Domestic Investors in Local Bond Markets: A Stabilizing Force?50References52 Chapter 2. Macrofinancial Stability Amid High Global Economic Uncertainty Chapter 2 at a Glance55Introduction55Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Financial Stability: A Conceptual Framework58The Global Landscape of Macroeconomic Uncertainty59Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Downside Risk to Output61Macroeconomic Uncertainty Amplifies the Impact of Macrofinancial Vulnerabilities63The Downside Risks of Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Cross-Border Spillovers65Conclusion and Policy Recommendations67Box 2.1. Market and Credit Channels Are Important in Transmitting the Effect ofMacroeconomic Uncertainty on Output69Box 2.2. Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Policy Credibility72References74 Chapter 3 at a Glance77Introduction78Current and Future Adoption of Artificial Intelligence in Capital Market Activities80 The Artificial Intelligence Transformation: Implications for Market Structuresand Dynamics85Financial Stability Implications91Regulatory and Supervisory Developments93Policy Recommendations95Box 3.1. IMF Staff Market Outreach: Qualitative Assessment of Advances inArtificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Capital Markets98Box 3.2. Manipulation and Cyber Risk: The Artificial Intelligence Arms Race99Glossary101References103 Tables Table 3.1. Potential Impact of the Adoption of Artificial Intelligence inAlgorithmic Trading 89 Figures Figure ES.1. Aggregate Debt-to-GDP RatiosxiiiFigure ES.2. Difference of the Standardized Measures of Financial Volatility, EconomicUncertainty, and Geopolitical RiskxiiiFigure ES.3. Equity Market Volatility in Japan and the United StatesxiiiFigure ES.4. Effect of Real Economic Uncertainty on Growth-at-Risk by HorizonxivFigure ES.5. Spillover to Emerging Market Term Premiums from US Term PremiumsxivFigure ES.6. Global Issuance of Sustainable DebtxivFigure ES.7. Maturing Commercial Real Estate Debt and Funding GapxvFigure ES.8. Banks Signaling Vulnerabilities in Three or More Areas of RiskxvFigure ES.9. Patents in Asset Management Related to Artificial IntelligencexvFigure 1.1. Market-Implied Expectations of Policy Rates for Selected Advanced andEmerging Market Economies3Figure 1.2. Economic Uncertainty and Market-Based Inflation Expectations4Figure 1.3. Recent Developments in