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2024香港货币与金融稳定情况半年度报告

金融2024-10-21--罗***
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2024香港货币与金融稳定情况半年度报告

20249 20249 2.92.192.211 1. 950 20242 1(REITs) 8202495011 8 2(ESG) 20245% 20242.5%–3.5%3 2024122.8%3.3% 3.0% 0.8%1.2% 2024(CNH)2024711,8562024(RTGS)33,271 20242 26(CMU)20246(mBridge) 20244582023520248449 1(HIBOR)4482024925202414.13%202474.14% 2030 2024458820242202488.9%9.7% 20242548,551683,744585.7%342.4% 101072024 2024332,0732024630,28820092023 20246.2%1.18%20242023 20241.9%2024 2024621.1%8%1220242183.3%67.9% 2% 4 2. 8950 20245% 2.1 2.1 7 8 95011 2.2 1(REITs) 2.2 220245%5%15.3%24.7%2.33 12ESG 45 (CPI)2024180.6%5%16–2425–293678 20242.42.5 5(i)(ii) 20244(i)(ii)(iii)(iv)9245025%15%6 (CNY)(CNH)20242.62.B25767 2.A20246253.8% 2.B 1 60%10 8 B1.1(MSCI2024)9 202310%40%11 S&P Capital IQ60012 1.201820232018= 1002.20233.(2024)20233% i.202310%40%(DAR) ii.DAR13DAR60% iii.(i)DAR(ii)DAR 2023 (1)DAR(2)(3) 1)DAR 2) DAR202340%44%67%13%55%20238%B1.2 DAR20232.5%13.2%B1.3B1.3 DAR60%88% 202374%1955%8 3) DAR202387%71%82%B1.4 BIS. (2024). Commercial property prices data set.Retrieved from https://data.bis.org/topics/CPP. CBRE. (2024). Global investment activity stayssubdued in Q4; Recovery expected in H2 2024. Frankel, M. (2014). US REITsREIT structureand bond covenants attenuate credit risk.Moody’s Investors Service. IMF. (2024). Global financial stability report. Thelast mile:Financial vulnerabilities and risks. Lai, A. (2023). Uneven global office recovery issqueezing credit quality. S&P Global Ratings. MSCI. (2024). MSCI real estate market size: Thesize of the professionally managed global realestate investment market in 2023. Olazabal, J. & Arora, A. (2012). Real estateresiliency: TheREIT Model Proves its mettle.PIMCO. 2ESG GVCESGB2.22021GVC15ESGGVCGVCESG (ESG)(GVC)14ESGGVCESG GVCGVCB2.1213 S&P Capital IQTrucost 1.ESG 20202022ESGGVCESG(E)(S)(G)ESG 14Tang et al. (2023), “The spillover effect of customers’ESG to suppliers.”Pacific-Basin Finance Journal , 78,101947Li et al. (2023), “How do ESG affect the spilloverof green innovation among peer firms? Mechanismdiscussion and performance study”Journal of BusinessResearch, 158, 113648 ESG16ESG17B2.3ESG B2.3 B2.3 2.GVC ESGESGESGESGESG18GVC B2.4ESGESGESGGVCESGESGESGGVC GVCESGGVCESGESG1920ESG 3. 2024 3.1 2024122.8%3.3%3.A12.5%20.4%3.1 3.2 20242324 21222 20242.5%–3.5%25 3 3.2 2.9%–3.0%33.3262728 3.3 2024121.0%202481.2%3.4293.53.6 28354820231847,000 202420241.3%1.9%30 3 20(Total FactorProductivity)3.3%101.4%B3.1 (Data Envelopment Analysis;DEA)B3.24546 4612 DEA(i)(ii)B3.3 20251.3%20302.0%47Leung(2009)48B3.1 1.20212.3. 4950 2001202151B3.1B3.1Leung(2009) 5%20301.3%20302.0%11%202420300.6–1.152 52 2020302.0%202420300.61.11+(RAISe+) 20222023 4. 458(HIBOR)34482024 4.1 4587.78297.83694.120235202484494.2 374.3 4.2 2024819,347 20243.8%1.3%6.1%4.4 3114484.5 2024925202414.13%202474.14% 323202444%202453%76%4.6 202413.4%2024711,8564.74.A12.6%20.7% 20242 263320246(mBridge) 202432.5%202486,9624.861,26441.9%202433,271202317,040 820245 4.3 2024454.98820242202488.9%9.7% 500VIX4.1034 2024274.11 (IPO)2024IPO17%IPO132202326.2%4.13 20244IPO 18C20246 2024284,1414.1214.1%33,520 4.435 1074.1410 20242202474.15 202428.2%4,6574.1895.6%3,048 20242.9%25,3814.164.9%5,163 2024628.1%8,0058.9%2024610,6044.19 5%2024627,7494.17M333.2%27.6%5.6%2024614,932 20245312 20247182501,2002030302030 2024532024–252027 4.5 20242363453748,551683,7444.20 342.4%585.7%1001004.209 202413.4199768.9%4.21382024286.5%4.22202412.9%202473.1% 20092024761%200964%40%2023 20231225,1632024332,0732024630,2884.23202460.11% 20246 39 4.2440 41 20242644.25715.9%4210.8%9.7%4.264.27202473.1%–3.6% 4020246109,000 4344 5. 2024202320242% 5.1 20245320236.2%1.13%1.18%5.1 1.51%1.62%5.2 20243202440202464.75%5.3 2024175.4 20246322.62%5.3 5.2 2024621.1%8%5.5(CET1)19.1%17.5%54202467.9%3% 552024212183.3%67.9%5.6100%25% 120242142.3%5.7100%2A174.7%75% 20231262.8%2024659.7%5.92024681.3%41.3%84.2%43.9% 2024659.5%60.8%5.8 5.3 202420241.9%5.1020232.0%6.2%20240.9%5.1% 2024220056202462.33%57 20181220192018 2024677%5.A17% 58 202420231.57%202461.89%20231.24%202461.52%5.11 20230.5%20245.B202320240.8%20230.3%1.7% (1)(2) 2024740.5%20229.92.95.135.14 202393.0%202490.0%5.123.0 200959 60 20233.4%20241.4%20245.16 20247.4%202341.74%202422.23%202460.34%5.15 20248 2024227%5.17 2%2024212%5.18 20243 2023AltmanZ5.19 1.2.3.4.20248 5.2020235.21 1.2.3.4.20248 62 202342,26013.7%4.4%2024640,42013.0%5.C0.5%20,0005.D6120232.58%202462.78% 5.E202426320262 1.07%1.55% 99%2.82%3.88% 20249 2. 3. 202433.2%3.6%9.3%9.4% 2024312% 202430.10.91.83.2 202432% 50% 5.4 4 (CCyB)CCyB1.0%64 CCyB5.F(IRC)IRCCCyB(i)(ii)65(iii)CCyB66CCyB67 20241IRCCCyB68IRCCCyB1%20242IRCCCyB1% 2024CCyBCCyB 1.CCyBCA-B-1CCyBCCyBCCyB 2.202441CCyB2.5%CCyBCA-B-1 5.G 4 7374 69 1070 Top2Vec 7172 Top2vecDFscore75 B4.1DFscore10 DFscoreprobit(i) DFscore(ii)76 DFscoreCapRROANPLcostEff77LTD78 DFscore B4.2DFscore90DFsco