2024年香港经济政策绿皮书（英文版）

HongKongEconomicPolicyGreenPaper2024 香港經濟政策綠皮書2024 Publisher:HKUBusinessSchool 出版者:港大經管學院 Address:4/F.,K.K.LeungBuilding,TheUniversityofHongKong, PokfulamRoad,HongKong 地址:香港薄扶林道香港大學梁球琚樓4樓 Website網址:https://www.hkubs.hku.hk/Email電郵地址:fbecomm@hku.hk Version:January2024(HongKong–FirstEdition) 版次:2024年1月香港初版 AllRightsReserved 版權所有翻印必究 TableofContents Preamble3 Introduction4 HongKong:StructuralEvolutionandFutureas anInternationalFinancialCentre9 TheLinkedExchangeRateSystemofHongKongDollar: ABenefit-CostEvaluation17 IncomeInequalityinHongKong31 TheImpactofAgingonHongKong’sFutureHealthSpending45 UsingDataandAlgorithmstoReducePublicHousingWaitTimes61 BrainDrain,BrainGain,andTheFutureofHongKong: EvidencefromLinkedInProfiles69 IPCommercializationBenefitsHigh-QualityEconomicDevelopment ofHongKong83 GreatCities:TheImportanceofEnhancingHongKong’sInternational AviationHubStatus97 ListofContributors108 OnlineVersion Preamble ItiswithimmensepleasureanddelightthatIpresentthethirdannualHongKongEconomicPolicyGreenPaper,producedbythedistinguishedscholarsoftheHKUBusinessSchool.ThisannualvolumeservesasatestamenttotheexceptionaldedicationandrigorousanalysisundertakenbyouresteemedacademiccommunityinaddressingthemyriadeconomicopportunitiesandchallengesthatHongKongfacestoday. Inthewakeoftheglobalpandemicandamidstrisinggeopoliticaltensions,itismorecriticalthaneverforourcitytoforgeaclearandstrategicpathforward.Thisyear’sGreenPaperprovidesinvaluableinsightsandguidancetohelpusnavigatetheseuncertaintimes.ThesustainedeffortsandunparalleledexpertiseofthescholarsattheUniversityofHongKongarebothtimelyandwelcome,astheycontributetoshapingaprosperousandresilientfutureforourbelovedcity. TheHongKongEconomicPolicyGreenPaperisacommendableinitiative,andIwholeheartedlyrecommendthisyear’sinstallmenttoeveryonewhoispassionateaboutandinvestedinthefutureofHongKong.Mayitinspirethoughtfuldeliberation,informeddecision-making,andcollectiveactionasweworktogethertoovercomethechallengesaheadandseizetheopportunitiesthatliebeforeus. Withmywarmestregardsandcongratulationstotheauthorsandcontributorsofthisexemplarypublication,IinviteyoutodelveintothepagesofthethirdannualHongKongEconomicPolicyGreenPaperandjoinusinourpursuitofabrightertomorrowforHongKong. YCRichardWong DeputyVice-ChancellorandProvostTheUniversityofHongKong 1January2024 Introduction Amidthechangingnatureofglobalization,whichhasbecomemoreregionalized,digitalized,andservice-oriented,andachallenginggeopoliticallandscape,thereisanurgentneedtoexplorenewpathsandpositionsfortheHongKongeconomy.Similartothepasttwoyears,theHKUBusinessSchoolisonceagainpublishingtheHongKongEconomicPolicyGreenPaper2024,whichisaneditedvolumeofeightchaptersonvariousaspectsofthecity’seconomicfuture.ThesechaptersarecontributedbydifferentexpertsfromtheUniversityofHongKong.Thisyear’sGreenPaperisajointeffortofacademicsfromtheHKUBusinessSchoolandotherfaculties.ThetopicscoveredintheGreenPaperrangefromthefutureofHongKongasaninternationalfinancialcentertopublichealthreforms.Ihopeyouwillenjoyreadingthesechaptersandgainnewinsightsonhowthecity’seconomycanberestructuredtobemoreinclusiveandresilient. Thefirstchapter,writtenbyArner,examinesHongKong’sevolutionintoamajorinternationalfinancialcenter,thescopeofitsrole,andrecentstructuralchanges.Historyservesasaguide:HongKongweatheredthe1987globalmarketcrashandthe2008GlobalFinancialCrisisandcontinuedtogrowasaninternationalfinancialcenter.However,theperiodfrom2019to2023waschallengingduetodomesticinstability,COVID-19,andgeopoliticaltensions.Ratherthandeclining,HongKong’srolemaybeundergoingstructuralchangeastheglobaleconomybecomesincreasinglymultipolar.HongKongandSingaporeareevolvingintofinancialcentersfordifferentregions–HongKongforChinaandSingaporeforAsiaexcludingChina.Toenhanceitsrole,HongKongmustmaintainitsstrengths,reinforceitsaccesstomainlandChina,andimproveitstransactionalinfrastructure.Itssuccesswilldependonopenness,infrastructure,institutions,andinterconnections. AfundamentalinfrastructureunderlyingHongKong’sfunctionasaninternationalfinancialcenterisitsfixedexchangeratewiththeU.S.dollar(USD),whichwaschosenbythecity’smonetaryauthority.Whatisthefutureofthecurrencypeggiventhepossibility,althoughunlikely,oftheU.S.authoritiesincreasingtheiruseoffinancialsanctionsonothergovernments,companies,andindividuals?FangandLiuexplorethecurrentstatusanddevelopmentofHongKong’slinkedexchangeratesystemwiththeUSDamidanevolvinginternationaleconomicsituation.Theauthorsarguethatthebenefitsbroughtbythelinkedexchangeratesystemwillbelonger-lastingthanwhatisimpliedbythetemporarychallengesposedbythechanging globalgeoeconomicenvironment.ThearticlediscussesthebenefitsofthelinkedexchangeratesystemforHongKong’sfinancialandtradesectors,explainswhythebenefitsofafloatingexchangeratefortheHongKongdollar(HKD)arenotassignificantasexpected,highlightsthechallengesofmaintainingthelinkedexchangeratesystemandofferspossiblesolutions,andanalyzesthepossibilityoflinkingtheHKDtotheChineserenminbi. Asiswell-known,socialandincomeinequalities