为什么欧洲和中亚对气候政策的支持率下降？（英）

Why Did Support for Climate Policies Decline in Europe and Central Asia?

Abstract

The Policy Research Working Paper Series explores trends in the willingness to pay higher taxes to combat climate change in Eastern and Central Europe and Central Asia from 2016 to 2023. Despite increasing attention from policymakers, scientists, and the media, the proportion of respondents willing to pay for climate action declined over this period. The paper investigates several hypotheses explaining the decline in public support for climate change policies, concluding that the growing politicization of the climate change agenda is the most likely explanation.

Introduction

Since 1896, when Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius discovered the link between carbon dioxide levels and climate change, the issue has garnered significant scientific and media attention. However, public concern and support for climate change-related actions have not kept pace with this growth. Public opinion about climate change has fluctuated over the past 50 years, with knowledge and awareness peaking in the 1980s and early 1990s. From the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s, public concerns and opinions became more variable. Between the mid-to-late 2000s, public attention and support declined in some countries, leading to growing skepticism and polarization.

The 2010s saw a stabilization of public concern about climate change. In the period from 2016 to 2024, social media played a significant role in shaping public perceptions of environmental issues. The disconnect between public attitudes and scientific evidence arises from the complex interplay of emotions, personal experiences, trust, values, worldviews, and political ideologies.

Key Findings

• Declining Support: Despite increased attention from policymakers, scientists, and the media, the proportion of respondents willing to pay to combat climate change declined significantly between 2016 and 2023.
• Hypotheses Tested:
  • Competing Priorities: People may prioritize other issues over climate change.
  • Personal Experiences: Personal experiences with extreme weather events may affect support.
  • Political Polarization: Growing polarization in politics and society may influence public support for climate policies.
• Right-Wing Populism: The paper highlights the growing influence of right-wing populism on support for climate policies across countries in Europe and Central Asia.
• Data Sources: The study uses data from the 2016 and 2023 rounds of the Life in Transition Survey (LiTS).

Data and Methods

• Survey Data: The Life in Transition Survey (LiTS) was used to collect data on public attitudes towards climate change.
• Descriptive Results: Descriptive statistics provide initial insights into the survey data.

Main Results

• Multivariate Analysis: The main results of the multivariate analysis highlight the significant impact of right-wing populism on declining support for climate policies.

Conclusion and Policy Implications

• Key Findings: The paper concludes that the growing politicization of climate change is the primary reason for the decline in public support.
• Policy Recommendations: The authors suggest that policymakers need to address the political and ideological dimensions of climate change to enhance public support for climate policies.

Literature Review

• Germany: The proportion of people perceiving climate change as a threat declined from 17% to 9% between 2008 and 2011.
• United Kingdom: Climate skepticism was reported to be on the rise.
• European Union: Concerns about climate change decreased among EU citizens.
• Canada and Australia: Climate change concerns showed a continuous decrease.
• OECD Countries: Environmental concerns moderately declined over two decades.
• Recent Research: Recent studies indicate heterogeneous but generally elevated climate change concerns, with policy support growing more in liberal states but remaining unchanged elsewhere.
• Italy: Attention to climate change increased, but sentiments toward it remained mixed.

Overall, the paper provides valuable insights into the drivers of public support for climate policies and highlights the need for strategic communication and policy engagement to address the growing politicization of climate change.