央行数字货币对货币操作的影响（英）2024

Implications of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) for Monetary Operations

Introduction

Central banks worldwide are considering the issuance of CBDCs, leading to a critical policy question: how will monetary policy be affected? This note addresses the second part of this question—how the introduction of CBDCs affects monetary operations, which involves managing the demand for and supply of reserves to achieve a desired policy stance.

Scenarios of CBDC Substitution

The analysis considers three scenarios:

1. CBDC substituting for cash
2. CBDC substituting for commercial bank deposits
3. CBDC substituting for reserves

Each scenario has distinct implications for the supply and demand of reserves and short-term interest rates.

Scenario 1: CBDC Substituting for Cash

• Effects: Limited impact on interest rates.
• Challenges: Increased difficulty in forecasting liquidity in the banking system.

Scenario 2: CBDC Substituting for Commercial Bank Deposits

• Effects: Loss of reserves as bank clients switch deposits to CBDC.
• Response: Central banks may need to upgrade liquidity forecasting, introduce facilities for fine-tuning daily liquidity provision, or adopt operational regimes less prone to liquidity shocks.

Scenario 3: CBDC Substituting for Reserves

• Effects: Depend on the relative difference between CBDC and reserves.
• Response: Ensure interoperability and allow banks to freely convert CBDC into reserves at par to prevent market price distortions and undesirable liquidity fragmentation.

Calibrating Monetary Operations

To adapt to the new environment with CBDC:

• First and Second Scenarios: Upgrade liquidity forecasting, introduce fine-tuning facilities, or adopt operational regimes less prone to liquidity shocks.
• Second Scenario: Use monetary policy instruments to adjust short-term interest rates back to target levels.
• Third Scenario: Ensure CBDC can be freely converted into reserves at par to prevent market distortions.

Potential Adverse Impacts

• Banking Disintermediation: Addressed by adjusting access criteria or imposing holding limits.
• Market Price Distortions: Managed through careful CBDC design, such as counting CBDC towards reserve requirements or remunerating CBDC-like reserves in a floor system.

By carefully considering these scenarios and adapting monetary operations, central banks can mitigate potential adverse impacts and maintain effective monetary policy execution.