2024债务冲击与新兴经济体产出和通货膨胀的动态报告

Debt Shocks and the Dynamics of Output and Inflation in Emerging Economies

Summary

This paper examines the impact of public debt shocks on real gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation in 34 emerging market economies (EMEs) from 2000 to 2022 using panel local projections. Unexpected increases in public debt lead to significant declines in real GDP and increases in inflation.

Key Findings:

1. Real GDP Decline:

   • An unexpected rise in public debt causes a substantial drop in real GDP.
   • Higher initial debt levels, tighter domestic financial conditions, and lower income levels amplify the negative impact on real GDP.
   • Tighter global financial conditions help mitigate these negative effects.

2. Inflation Impacts:

   • The impact of public debt shocks on inflation varies based on specific economic fundamentals.
   • Nonlinearities in the dynamics are observed, with more severe effects during recessionary periods.

3. Methodology:

   • The study uses a series of identified public debt shocks for each EME.
   • Exogenous shocks are isolated using forecast errors from the World Economic Outlook (WEO) vintages.
   • Panel local projections are employed to estimate the impact of public debt on real GDP and inflation.

4. Literature Context:

   • Previous literature on the relationship between debt and economic growth highlights the threshold effect where high debt levels can negatively impact growth.
   • Research on inflation's response to debt shocks indicates that persistent fiscal deficits and excessive debt can amplify inflation expectations.
   • Recent works emphasize the importance of the trajectory of debt for its impact on growth.

5. Policy Implications:

   • Managing the inflationary effects of fiscal expansions remains a significant challenge for policymakers.
   • The findings suggest that managing initial debt levels and financial conditions is crucial for mitigating the adverse effects of public debt shocks.

References:

• Authors: John Beirne and Nuobu Renzhi
• Publisher: Asian Development Bank
• Publication Date: August 2024
• Series: ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 739

This paper contributes to the understanding of how public debt shocks affect economic performance in emerging markets, providing insights for policymakers and economists.