2024年中全球投资展望

2024 MMKKTTGGMM00772244AA//SS--33772328404144--11//1166 2024 PhilippHildebrandJeanBoivin — — (AI) — WeiLi — VivekPaul — ChristopherKaminker 2 3-4 3 4 5-7 5 6 7 —— 612 —— 8-14 8-9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Capitalspending Totalfactorproductivity AI&low-carbontransition 2024-2030s 资本支出 总要素生产力 20242030 ? 1970 2010 1880 1940 1760 1840 Informationandcommunicationtech1970s-2010s Electricity1880s-1940s Steam(UK)1760s-1840s 89 (Transition Scenario) 3.5 60%100% 0102030 20246 Crafts(2021) Crafts(2021) 6 12 20247 12 100 Meta Alphabet 3 2 1 2020 0 051015202530 20247 100 • • 2005-2024 612 3 2 1 8-9 0 Microsoft Apple UK Germany 2005201020152020 LSEGDatastream20247 MSCI MSCI • • • • – 201520202025203020352040 20247 HelenJewell • • 2022-2030 16% 14% 500 2 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Estimates IEAestimate 2% 0% BGIF Semianalytics 20245 (Bernstein) 2022 / 20222024202620282030 1 Informationtechinvestment(%ofGDP) Productivitygrowth(right) • • 3 生产力大幅提升 2070-80 1% 0.1%1.5% — 1970-2024 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1970 0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2070 — HaverAnalytics20247 SimonaParavani-Mellinghoff 1940-2024 170 120 70 20 -30 Macrohistory Jorda 2017 HaverAnalytics20246 • • TomDonilon 2000-2019 8 6 4 2 — 2140 80% 64% 0 • • Haver20243 20002019 2019 – DavidGiordano -2 -0.5 0.51.52.5 1970-2024 30085 15- 64 25075 20065 15055 10045 5035 Healthcaresectorvsbroadmarketindex Dependencyratio(right) 197019801990200020102020 • • LSEGDatastream 20243 1990 Datastream / CarrieKing — 12% 20 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Benchmark Currencyhedged Unhedged 0% • • 20246 10 MSCI — YuichiChiguchi 7 ••• • •3% • 6-12 2024 20247 Neutral 7 -2 612 2024 10 Neutral Neutral  中性 -1 “” ©2024BlackRock,Inc.BLACKROCKBlackRock,Inc.,