2024巴尔干半岛西部：气候与发展报告

WESTERN BALKANS 6 World Bank Group Public Disclosure Authorized June 2024 © 2023 The World Bank Group1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet:www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank Group with external contributions. “The World Bank Group”refers to the legally separate organizations of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD),the International Development Association (IDA), the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the MultilateralInvestment Guarantee Agency (MIGA). The World Bank Group does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the content included in thiswork, or the conclusions or judgments described herein, and accepts no responsibility or liability for any omissionsor errors (including, without limitation, typographical errors and technical errors) in the content whatsoever or forreliance thereon. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this workdo not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank Group concerning the legal status of any territory or theendorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in thisvolume do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations of the World Bank Group, their respective Boardsof Executive Directors, and the governments they represent. The contents of this work are intended for general informational purposes only and are not intended toconstitute legal, securities, or investment advice, an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment,or a solicitation of any type. Some of the organizations of the World Bank Group or their affiliates may havean investment in, provide other advice or services to, or otherwise have a financial interest in, certain of thecompanies and parties named herein. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privilegesand immunities of any of the organizations of The World Bank Group, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank Group encourages dissemination ofits knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as fullattribution to this work is given and all further permissions that may be required for such use (as noted herein)are acquired. The World Bank Group does not warrant that the content contained in this work will not infringe onthe rights of third parties, and accepts no responsibility or liability in this regard. All queries on rights and licensesshould be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC20433, USA; e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. Table of Contents Acknowledgments....................................................................................................................................................vAbbreviations............................................................................................................................................................viiExecutive Summary..................................................................................................................................................1 1.1. Current development plans and objectives.....................................................................................................141.2. Risks and opportunities related to the impacts of climate change...............................................................171.3. Low-carbon transition: risks and opportunities..............................................................................................30 2.1. Climate plans and commitments.....................................................................................................................402.2. Implementation outlook...................................................................................................................................43 Chapter 3. What can be done? Adaptation and mitigation..............................................................................49 3.1. People and places deep dive...........................................................................................................................503.2. Reimagining the energy systems to mitigate climate change........................................................................58 Chapter 4. What will the future bring? Macroeconomic impacts.....................................................................69 4.1. Development trajectories.................................................................................................................................704.2. Climate hazards and the impact of adaptation investments..........................................................................704.3. The transition to ne