Oil Market Report - August 2017
AI智能总结Highlights
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Demand:
- New data for non-OECD countries for 2015 reduced global oil demand by an average of 330 kb/d from 2015 to 2018.
- For 2017, global oil demand growth was revised upward to 1.5 mb/d, with demand reaching 97.6 mb/d.
- In 2018, growth slowed slightly to 1.4 mb/d, with demand reaching 99.0 mb/d. By the fourth quarter of 2018, demand is expected to reach 100.1 mb/d.
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Supply:
- Global oil supply increased by 520 kb/d in July compared to June, marking the third consecutive monthly increase.
- Supply is up 500 kb/d compared to the same period last year.
- Non-OPEC output is expected to expand by 0.7 mb/d in 2017 and 1.4 mb/d in 2018, with the US contributing 0.6 mb/d and 1.0 mb/d, respectively.
- The ten non-OPEC countries cooperating with OPEC saw their compliance rate improve to 67% in July.
- OPEC crude output rose by 230 kb/d in July to a 2017 high of 32.84 mb/d, led by a strong recovery in Libya.
- Output from the 12 members included in the output pact edged up, eroding the compliance rate to 75%, the lowest this year. Year-to-date compliance is 87%.
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Stocks:
- OECD industry stocks fell in June by 19.3 mb to 3,021 mb due to strong refinery runs and oil product exports.
- In Q2 2017, global oil stocks drew by 0.5 mb/d, including 0.2 mb/d in the OECD.
- Provisional data shows further falls in July, including the largest monthly US crude stock draw in over three years.
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Prices:
- Benchmark crude prices rose by $1-2/bbl in July due to higher crude demand from refiners and anticipated oil field maintenance.
- Sweet-sour spreads widened for the first time in four months.
- Strong demand and refinery outages in Europe boosted diesel and gasoline prices.
- Refining throughput is expected to reach its annual peak in August, with runs at 81.4 mb/d.
- 3Q17 throughput is forecast to grow 0.9 mb/d year-over-year (y-o-y).
- Global refining activity will seasonally decline in September and October, before bouncing back in November.
