Oil Market Report - November 2017
AI智能总结Highlights
Demand
- Forecast Revision: Higher prices and relatively mild early winter temperatures led to a downward revision in demand forecasts.
- 2017 and 2018 Forecasts: Growth has been revised down by 0.1 mb/d for both years.
- 2017: Increased by 1.5 mb/d or 1.6%, reaching 97.7 mb/d.
- 2018: Increased by 1.3 mb/d or 1.3%, reaching 98.9 mb/d.
Supply
- Global Supply: Rose by 100 kb/d in October to 97.5 mb/d, driven by higher flows from non-OPEC countries.
- Non-OPEC Supply: Expected to rise by 0.7 mb/d in 2017 and 1.4 mb/d in 2018, led by higher US output.
- OPEC Supply: Fell by 80 kb/d in October, with a compliance rate of 96% in October and 87% for the year-to-date.
Stocks
- OECD Industry Stocks: Fell by 40 mb in September, dropping below 3,000 mb for the first time in two years.
- Global Stocks: Dropped by 63 mb in 3Q17, the second quarterly draw since 2014.
- Recent Changes: US and China saw draws, while other regions experienced rises.
Prices
- Benchmark Crude Prices: Increased by $1-2/bbl in October compared to September, pushing higher in early November due to Middle Eastern tensions.
- Oil Product Markets: Weakened relative to crude following the return of US refineries to higher throughput levels.
Refining
- Refining Throughput Forecast: Revised marginally lower to 80.8 mb/d for 4Q17.
- Inventories: Expected to build as demand seasonally slows down.
- January-February 2018: Forecasted refining runs to grow by 1.1 mb/d year-over-year.
Global Oil Balances
- Oversupplied Markets: Implies oversupplied crude oil markets in 4Q17 and 1Q18.
- Refined Products: Inventories forecast to increase, mainly due to increased seasonal demand for LPG.
Summary
The report highlights a downward revision in demand forecasts due to higher prices and mild weather conditions. Supply trends show an increase in non-OPEC production, while OPEC output declined. Stock levels have shown significant changes, particularly in OECD regions. Price movements were influenced by geopolitical factors, and refining activities are expected to remain robust. Overall, the market indicates oversupply in crude oil but balanced growth in refined products.
