Oil Market Report - November 2018
AI智能总结Highlights
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Global Oil Demand Growth: The outlook for global oil demand growth remains largely unchanged at 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2018 and 1.4 mb/d in 2019. This projection is balanced by a weaker economy and lower oil prices.
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OECD Demand: OECD demand is expected to increase by 355 kilobars per day (kb/d) in 2018, slowing to 285 kb/d in 2019.
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Non-OECD Demand: Non-OECD demand forecast has been revised downward by 165 kb/d for 2019 due to higher year-on-year prices, currency devaluations, and slowing economic activity.
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Oil Supply: Global oil supplies are growing rapidly. Record output from Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the U.S. more than offsets declines from Iran and Venezuela. October output was up 2.6 mb/d compared to the same period last year.
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OPEC Crude Output: OPEC crude output rose by 200 kb/d in October to 32.99 mb/d, up 240 kb/d from the previous year. Losses from Iran and Venezuela were offset by increases from other producers. The call on OPEC crude falls to 31.3 mb/d in 2019, 1.7 mb/d below current output.
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Refining Margins: Refining margins plunged to the lowest levels since 2014 after a buildup of 0.7 mb/d in Q3 2018. Global refinery throughput is likely to exceed refined product demand both in Q4 2018 and into 2019.
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OECD Commercial Stocks: OECD commercial stocks rose counter-seasonally by 12.1 mb in September to 2,875 mb. In Q3 2018, stocks increased by 58.1 mb (630 kb/d), the largest gain since 2015. OECD holdings are likely to exceed the 5-year average when October data is finalised.
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ICE Brent Prices: ICE Brent prices hit a four-year high of over $86/barrel (bbl) at the beginning of October but have since fallen back to below $70/bbl. Brent and WTI futures curves have flipped to contango. Product prices did not match the drop in crude prices, except for gasoline and naphtha.
Summary
The report highlights significant changes in global oil demand and supply dynamics. While global oil demand growth is projected to remain steady, non-OECD demand faces challenges due to higher prices and economic slowdowns. Meanwhile, OPEC and non-OPEC crude oil production is increasing, with notable contributions from Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the U.S. Despite these increases, refining margins have dropped, indicating potential oversupply issues. OECD commercial stocks have risen, contributing to concerns about future inventory levels. Additionally, despite the recent fall in prices, the market remains sensitive to geopolitical events and supply disruptions.
