Oil 2023

Oil 2023 Analysis and Forecast to 2028

Executive Summary

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has published "Oil 2023," which provides a comprehensive overview of the evolving oil supply and demand dynamics through 2028. The report highlights how a stronger drive towards a low-emissions future and changes in behavior will impact oil market fundamentals in the coming years. Key points include:

• Global Energy Crisis: The global energy crisis has pushed energy security to the forefront of international policy agendas.
• Clean Energy Investment: Investment in clean energy is growing faster than fossil fuels, helping to bring peak oil demand into view.
• Challenges and Uncertainties: The report identifies several challenges and uncertainties, including upstream investment, new supply sources, spare capacity, and shifting oil demand patterns.

Demand Overview

• Global Summary: The global oil demand is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.5% from 2022 to 2028.
• Energy Transition: The energy transition is gathering pace, with a focus on reducing emissions.
• Petrochemicals: Petrochemicals are driving demand growth, particularly in China.
• Aviation and Marine: Aviation and marine demand are expected to resume growth.

Demand Developments by Region

• North America: North American oil demand is projected to grow, driven by regional factors.
• Europe: Europe's oil demand is expected to fluctuate, influenced by changes in the automotive fleet and policies.
• Asia-Pacific: Asia-Pacific, especially China and India, are key drivers of oil demand growth.
• Other Regions: Other regions are experiencing varying levels of demand growth.

Supply Overview

• Global Summary: The global oil supply is expected to increase, with OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries contributing significantly.
• Investment and Exploration: Investment in oil exploration and production is crucial for meeting future demand.
• Refining: Refining capacity is adapting to changing demand patterns, with regional developments showing varied impacts.
• Trade: Global oil trade is expected to grow, with crude oil and product balances playing a significant role.

Key Data Points

• Annual Oil Demand Growth: From 2022 to 2028, the annual growth rate is estimated at 0.5%.
• Cumulative Oil Demand Growth: By 2028, the cumulative growth in oil demand is expected to be substantial.
• New EVs and Improved Efficiency: New electric vehicles (EVs) and improved efficiency measures are anticipated to avoid an additional 7.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) of oil demand by 2028.
• Global EV Sales: Global EV sales are projected to grow significantly, with specific regional data provided.

Figures and Tables

• Annual Oil Demand Growth: Chart showing the projected growth from 2022 to 2028.
• Cumulative Transport Fuels Demand Growth: Chart illustrating the growth in transport fuels demand.
• New EVs and Improved Efficiency: Chart demonstrating how new EVs and efficiency improvements will reduce oil demand.
• Global Air Traffic: Weekly data on global air traffic from 2019 to 2023.
• International Marine Bunker Demand: Impact of efficiency gains on international marine bunker demand.

Overall, "Oil 2023" provides a detailed and comprehensive outlook on the future of the oil market, highlighting both opportunities and challenges in the transition to a low-emissions future.