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越南每两年一次的贫困与公平更新：迈向更具包容性的城市2024

公用事业2024-09-08世界银行叶***

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Viet Nam Bi-Annual Poverty & Equity Update: Towards More Inclusive Cities

Overview

The Viet Nam Bi-Annual Poverty & Equity Update highlights the country's progress and challenges in reducing poverty and promoting equity, particularly in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. The report underscores the importance of urbanization in Viet Nam's development trajectory and the need for inclusive policies that address both rural and urban disparities.

Part 1: Poverty & Equity Update

1. Poverty and Equity Developments

Progress Stalled: Despite a decade of successful poverty reduction, Viet Nam experienced a slowdown in poverty alleviation efforts during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Regional Variations: There are notable differences in poverty trends across various geographic regions within Viet Nam, indicating varying impacts based on location.
Vulnerable Populations: The most vulnerable segments of society have fewer coping mechanisms and have seen their conditions worsen, highlighting the need for targeted interventions.

2. Sources and Dynamics Behind Changes in Poverty

Labor Income Declines: Labor incomes experienced modest reductions in 2022, affecting both the intensive and extensive margins.
Transfer Effects: While transfers helped mitigate some labor income losses, their impact was generally limited.
Urban vs. Rural Dynamics: The transition out of agriculture has significant implications for income and poverty dynamics, particularly in urban areas where short- and long-term trends affect employment patterns.

3. Looking Forward

Economic Growth: With the return of economic growth, there is potential for improvements in income and poverty rates.
Policy Recommendations:
- Addressing Shocks: Policies should focus on mitigating the impact of future economic fluctuations.
- Modern Social Protection: Enhancing social safety nets to better withstand economic shocks.
- Fiscal Policy: Implementing countercyclical fiscal measures to stabilize the economy.
- Job Quality: Prioritizing the creation of better and more secure job opportunities.

Part 2: Poverty and Inclusion in Urban Areas and Cities

1. Urbanization Trends

Urban Population Growth: Viet Nam’s urban population continues to grow, although the actual urban living experience might encompass a larger share of the population than officially reported.
Urbanization Dynamics: The largest share of urban population and growth is concentrated in the five major municipalities.

2. The Urbanization of Poverty

Urban Poverty Patterns: Urban poverty rates, though lower than rural ones, can vary significantly based on measurement methods or classifications.
Rural-Urban Disparity: Urban poverty can increase more rapidly than rural poverty under specific conditions, reflecting the complexity of urban development.

3. Case Study: Ho Chi Minh City

City-Level Analysis: Understanding the gradient of urbanization and poverty through city-level analysis is crucial.
Spatial Inclusion Challenges: Survey-level indicators may not fully capture the diverse experiences within highly populated cities like HCMC.
Within-City Analysis Framework: A detailed framework reveals disparities in access to amenities, housing quality, and environmental risks across different areas of the city.

4. Data-Informed Policies in Urban Areas

Policy Implications: Better data collection and analysis are essential for crafting effective policies that address urban poverty and promote inclusivity.

The report underscores the importance of addressing both rural and urban poverty, advocating for policies that ensure economic stability, enhance social protection systems, and promote equitable urban development. It emphasizes the need for tailored interventions that consider the unique challenges faced by different communities within Viet Nam, particularly in light of ongoing global economic uncertainties.

VIETNAMBI-ANNUAL POVERTY&EǪUITYUPDATE PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized Towaídsmoíeinclusivecities June2024 ©2024InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank ThisworkisaproductofthestaffoftheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthiswork.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries. NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofTheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved. RightsandPermissions ThisworkisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo.UndertheCreativeCommonsAttributionlicense,youarefreetocopy,distribute,transmit,andadaptthiswork,includingforcommercialpurposes,underthefollowingconditions: Attribution—Pleasecitetheworkasfollows:WorldBank.2024.VietNambi-annualpoverty&equityupdate-June2024–Towardsmoreinclusivecities.Washington,DC:WorldBank.License:CreativeCommonsAttributionCCBY3.0IGO Translations—Ifyoucreateatranslationofthiswork,pleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution:ThistranslationwasnotcreatedbyTheWorldBankandshouldnotbeconsideredanofficialWorldBanktranslation.TheWorldBankshallnotbeliableforanycontentorerrorinthistranslation. Adaptations—Ifyoucreateanadaptationofthiswork,pleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution:ThisisanadaptationofanoriginalworkbyTheWorldBank.ViewsandopinionsexpressedintheadaptationarethesoleresponsibilityoftheauthororauthorsoftheadaptationandarenotendorsedbyTheWorldBank. Third-partycontent—TheWorldBankdoesnotnecessarilyowneachcomponentofthecontentcontainedwithinthework.TheWorldBankthereforedoesnotwarrantthattheuseofanythird-party-ownedindividualcomponentorpartcontainedintheworkwillnotinfringeontherightsofthosethirdparties.Theriskofclaimsresultingfromsuchinfringementrestssolelywithyou.Ifyouwishtore-useacomponentofthework,itisyourresponsibilitytodetermine whetherpermissionisneededforthatre-useandtoobtainpermissionfromthecopyrightowner.Examplesofcomponentscaninclude,butarenotlimitedto,tables,figures,orimages. AllqueriesonrightsandlicensesshouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBankGroup,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. Coverdesign:HaDoanandSaengkeoTouttavong VIETNAMBI-ANNUALPOVERTY&EǪUITYUPDATE TowaídsmoíeinclusivecitiesJune2024 Contents Abbíeviationsvii Acknowledgmentsviii Oveíview1 Paít1.Poveíty&EquityUpdate1 Paít2.PoveítyandInclusioninUíbanAíeasandCities3 PART1.Poveíty&EquityUpdate8 1.Poveítyandequitydevelopments10 AdecadeofsuccessfulpoveítyíeductioninVietNamstalledduíingtheCOVID-19pandemic10 Pandemic-íelatedslowdownsinteííuptedlong-íunpoveítyandinequalitytíendsintheEastAsia andPacificíegion10 In2022,píogíessinpoveítyíeductionstalled11 Householdimpactsvaíied,withuíbanaíeasmoíenegativelyimpactedthaníuíalones13 Diffeíencesinpoveítytíendsacíossgeogíaphicíegionsaíeevident15 Thevulneíablehavefeweícopingstíategiesandepeíiencedwoíseningconditions16 Inequalitydeclinedslightlyashouseholdsatthehigheíendsofthedistíibutionepeíiencedíelatively moíeadveíseimpactsthanthoseatthebottom,paíticulaílythoseinuíbanaíeas18 2.Souícesanddynamicsbehindchangesinpoveíty22 In2022,laboíincomesepeíiencedsmalldeclinesineitheítheintensiveoíetensivemaígins24 Tíansfeísoffsetsomelaboíincomelosses,buttheseamountsweíesmallonaveíage25 Tíansitionoutofagíicultuíeislinkedwithincomeandpoveítydynamics26 Shoít-andlong-teímtíendswillimpactemployment28 3.Lookingfoíwaíd32 Withtheíetuínofeconomicgíowth,incomeandpoveítyíatesaíeimpíoving32 PoliciesfoítheNetMile34 Identifyandaddíessshocks35 Socialpíotectionneedstobemodeínizedtoguaídagainstshocks35 Counteícyclicalfiscalpolicies37 Betteíandmoíesecuíejobs37 AnneA.Figuíes–Paít138 AnneB.Householdconsumption42 PART2.PoveítyandInclusioninUíbanAíeasandCities44 1.UíbanizationisimpoítantfoítheNetMile46 WhileVietNam’sofficialuíbanpopulationisgíowing,theshaíeofpeoplelivinginanuíbanizedsetting couldbelaígeí47 AlaígeshaíeofVietNam’suíbanpopulationandgíowthaíefoundinitsfivemunicipalities49 2.Theuíbanizationofpoveíty54 Undeíceítainconditions,uíbanpoveítycaníisemoíethaníuíalpoveíty55 Whileuíbanpoveítyíatesaíemuchloweíthaníuíalones,theycanvaíybydiffeíentmeasuíement oíclassifications56 3.CaseStudy:MappingspatialinclusioninHoChiMinhCity58 City-levelanalysisisimpoítanttoundeístandthegíadientofuíbanizationandpoveíty58 Suívey-levelindicatoísmaskvaíiationacíossahighlypopulatedcity58 Asimplefíamewoíkfoíwithin-cityanalysis63 AcíossHCMC,distancestoamenitiesaíeshoíteíinpeíipheíalaíeasofthecity67 Theíeaíepocketsofoveícíowdedandlow-quality

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Part 1: Poverty & Equity Update

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