突尼斯中央银行稳定国家之船

Tunisia's progress towards democracy since the fall of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali eight years ago has seen improvements in security, freedom of speech, and the decline of torture. However, the nation faces significant challenges. The primary obstacles include the lack of substantial economic reform, widespread corruption, and the weakening support for Prime Minister Youssef Chahed's commitment to reforms.

Corruption has permeated across all levels of society, stemming from the Ben Ali regime and spreading throughout the political landscape. The justice system remains unformed, leaving citizens disillusioned by high-profile cases involving respected ministers, such as Khaled Kaddour and Fadhel Abdelkefi, where Prime Minister Chahed failed to provide adequate defense. This lack of support questions Chahed's genuine intent to promote reforms.

Public discontent has grown, with a majority of young Tunisians feeling disenchanted by the political climate, which is characterized by political infighting, bureaucracy, and an increasingly angry populace. The trade union UGTT's demand for wage increases exacerbates the issue, as it puts pressure on the already stretched civil service.

The political vacuum has led to the rise of the populist leader Noureddine Taboubi, who, through his trade union, UGTT, seems to fan the flames of discontent by advocating for unrealistic wage demands. The government's policies do not support entrepreneurship, especially among young individuals who create the majority of jobs.

Economic reforms have been slow, with the country still experiencing economic disparities between the wealthier coastal regions and the poorer inland areas. The World Bank's report highlights the extent to which politically connected firms capture the policy-making process, acquiring advantages and resources.

Despite these challenges, Tunisia's Central Bank, under Governor Marouane El Abassi, has made strides in improving its relationship with international institutions like the IMF and World Bank. The bank has raised interest rates, tightened credit access, and initiated serious cooperation with regional central banks. These measures have helped stabilize the economy and reduce the negative impact of external factors.

Governor El Abassi is working to enhance economic relations with neighboring countries, particularly Libya and Algeria, to combat the informal economy and smuggling. However, more work is needed to address disparities in subsidies and reduce smuggling activities.

While Europe supports Tunisia, the aid provided is deemed insufficient compared to the costs of maintaining the civil service, subsidies, and servicing debt. There is a need for a generous restructuring of Tunisia's foreign debt, potentially offered by the IMF and EU, to stimulate economic growth.

In summary, Tunisia's journey towards democracy faces significant hurdles, including corruption, economic disparities, and a lack of sustained political support for reforms. Yet, the resilience of the Central Bank and its Governor Marouane El Abassi provides hope for a brighter future.