El fracaso del experimento “gradualista” en Argentina devuelve al peronismo al poder

The collapse of the "gradualist" economic experiment in Argentina led to the return of Peronism to power. After twelve years of Kirchnerism, Mauricio Macri attempted to gradually dismantle the institutionalized patronage practices during successive Peronist administrations. His aim was to transform Argentina into a modern liberal democracy. However, his heterodox stance led to a strong macroeconomic adjustment and progressive liberalization of the productive apparatus.

Macri's strategy involved eliminating subsidies for public service tariffs and increasing taxes to reduce the fiscal deficit, while simultaneously increasing sustained social spending to mitigate the impact of adjustments on the most vulnerable sectors, ensuring governance stability. Social spending reached 76% of primary spending in the 2018 budget, the highest since 2002, supported by significant external debt growth.

Initially, this approach appeared successful, providing institutional stability to the government. However, access to international credit markets closed mid-2018 due to global tensions, leaving the "gradualism" unfinished. Expansive palliative policies aimed at sustaining consumption failed to revive the economy, and Macri did not carry out the required structural adjustment demanded by the markets to increase investment and promote growth dynamics. The economy ended up in a deep speculative spiral, leading to a currency crisis that resulted in a 62% peso devaluation in 2019 and an annual inflation rate above 50%. This significantly increased poverty, reaching 35.4% of the population in the first half of the year, an increase of 8.1 percentage points compared to the previous year.

Despite clear signs of the model's failure, Macri continued with his economic policies, applying "gradualist" recipes with IMF support. His determination to maintain power led him to reject the advice from the establishment to step aside and support more competitive electoral candidates. This decision cost him not only the presidency but also the largest and most populous province in the country.

The persistence of Macri favored Peronism's electoral interests, increasing its chances of returning to government. Alberto Fernández, a moderate leader who preferred acting behind the scenes for most of his career, became the new Peronist leader. The Peronist coalition, known as Frente de Todos, which includes parts of the Partido Justicialista, Kirchnerism, and other factions, was successfully reunited, despite Cristina Fernández de Kirchner's decision not to run for re-election but instead to run for vice president. During the campaign, Fernández de Kirchner played a secondary role, ceding political centrality to Alberto Fernández, who ran against Macri's efforts to polarize voters through a campaign against Kirchnerism and fear of the past to increase his chances of staying in office.

The result of the primary election dealt a severe blow to Macri's team, as they seemed more focused on continuing their political careers in opposition than on winning the election. The "political transition" occurred before the polls. The only one who continued to believe in victory was Macri, who, taking advantage of the complacency of a Peronist party that felt it would win, intensified his "Yes, it is possible" campaign, visiting thirty cities in thirty days to reconnect with his voters, gaining two million three hundred thousand additional votes compared to the August primaries. Macri has saved his leadership and promised to lead a "healthy, constructive, and responsible opposition." It remains to be seen if this new phase will help overcome the long-standing polarization in Argentina, divided by a rift promoted by Kirchnerism and Macrism, and threatened by poverty and despair.