The report focuses on the geopolitical dilemma surrounding Venezuela, where the recognition of Juan Guaidó as the country's president has escalated from a regional political game to a global conflict. The three key elements driving this conflict are reminiscent of historical instances: the Cold War's bipolar dynamics, the potential for US military intervention in Latin America, and unfinished democratic transitions from the 1980s.
The report notes that Guaidó's self-proclamation as Venezuela's interim president has united the opposition and internationalized the internal political conflict, aiming to overthrow President Nicolás Maduro through external support. This scenario is characterized by the use of force against opponents, with Guaidó receiving significant international support, thus ensuring protection against possible detention by Maduro's regime.
The report highlights the division within Latin America, with countries like Mexico and the EU taking opposing stances. The EU initially split between those supporting Guaidó, demanding elections from Maduro, those supporting Guaidó without conditions, and those recognizing the legitimacy of the Venezuelan Assembly but not Guaidó. The EU's response culminated in the creation of an International Contact Group aimed at mediating and finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict. This group, comprising eight European and five Latin American countries, seeks to negotiate a solution, prioritizing electoral processes, respect for the rule of law, and humanitarian aid.
Four potential outcomes are discussed:
- A negotiated electoral exit: This scenario is unlikely due to the opposition's unwillingness to accept Maduro's continued rule.
- A disruptive approach led by Guaidó: This option involves sanctions, diplomatic pressures, or dividing the military to force Maduro's departure through exile or amnesty.
- Military intervention led by the US: This could lead to a divided recognition of Guaidó's authority and provoke rejection from other states, potentially leading to civil war.
- Stagnation: This scenario favors Maduro, maintaining state control with support from allies like China, Russia, Iran, or Turkey, and the loyalty of the military.
The report concludes that the international community bears the responsibility of facilitating this transition while minimizing risks and suffering for Venezuela's society.
