CIDOB Opinion 747 highlights the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on the geopolitical dynamics in the Western Balkans, and the European Union's (EU) response to maintain its influence in the region.
The EU has shown renewed ambition to strengthen its presence in the Western Balkans, especially following the war in Ukraine. This includes offering candidate status to Bosnia and Herzegovina, responding to Russian disinformation campaigns that destabilize the region, and reinforcing diplomatic efforts to counteract the growing influence of external actors like China.
In Serbia, a country with close ties to Russia, the EU faces a dilemma as it desires Serbian integration into the EU while being cautious about the risk of Russia gaining a foothold within the EU through Serbia. The EU's concerns over China's growing economic and diplomatic influence in the region were exacerbated by China's early assistance during the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to closer economic ties between Beijing and Belgrade.
The EU's strategy involves emphasizing the benefits of EU enlargement and increasing support for the region's economic development. However, the bloc's slow reaction has also opened the door for increased Chinese influence, particularly through investments in strategic sectors and critical infrastructure. This has raised concerns about China potentially controlling key assets such as Montenegro's port and the new highway connecting it to Serbia.
In response to the geopolitical tensions, the EU has stepped up its diplomatic efforts, including visits to key countries in the region by high-ranking officials, promising significant investments in energy transition, and addressing the long-standing dispute between Serbia and Kosovo. The EU aims to demonstrate its commitment to the region as a natural ally, while preventing further instability at its borders.
Despite these efforts, challenges remain, including resolving conflicts and normalizing relations, particularly between Serbia and Kosovo. While progress has been made, such as resolving the issue of car registration plates, the road ahead is still uncertain, with potential for further tensions and instability. The EU's renewed engagement in the region indicates a determination to regain its role as a major player, but whether this will be enough to reverse political paralysis, recurring tensions, and widespread disillusionment remains to be seen.
