Europa y el Mediterráneo: ¿qué futuro en común?

CIDOB notes internacionals 261, published in November 2021, emphasizes the significance of the Mediterranean region and its role as a bridge between civilizations, while also serving as a dividing line between vastly different realities. The report highlights several major issues including significant demographic and economic imbalances between the northern and southern shores, political and social conflicts, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The region has experienced intense transformation since 2011 due to the 'Arab Awakening' or 'Arab Spring', which affected various countries in the region. It's likely that this process will accelerate due to the multiple crises caused by the pandemic, leading to social, violent, or state service collapse scenarios. The future of the Mediterranean and its relations with Europe is uncertain but could lead to alternative futures if the right actions are taken.

The Mediterranean region's links can fulfill citizens' expectations and needs, but they may also weaken or become oppressive, rooted in fear. The authors advocate for the former scenario and against the latter two. The new global context, marked by the pandemic-induced crises, exacerbates existing political and socio-economic issues but also offers opportunities for cooperation and inclusive development if policies and approaches are correctly implemented.

The Union of European Nations (UE) has invested significantly in the Euro-Mediterranean partnership, aiming for shared peace, stability, and prosperity, a free trade zone, democracy strengthening, human rights respect, and mutual understanding. However, none of these objectives have been achieved in over 25 years, and the situation has worsened across several dimensions. The Euro-Mediterranean relationship has failed to transform the region positively, leading to a deep sense of fatigue and frustration.

The EU should acknowledge that good intentions from the initial plan were not accompanied by political will or appropriate instruments. The context for developing Euro-Mediterranean relationships has been far from easy, including issues like the collapse of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, geopolitical tensions between regional powers in the Middle East, and emerging global actors like Russia. Despite this context, it shouldn't prevent those advocating for stronger and broader Euro-Mediterranean relations from critically evaluating priorities and tools to identify what has failed and explore alternative pathways.

The report suggests that the lack of consistency and coherence between discourse and policy outcomes stems from a generalized and overly simplified idea. The EU has struggled with the 'dilemma between values and interests': balancing true democratic reform with immediate interests. However, many years of defining interests have created a false dichotomy between security and democratization in the Mediterranean region. This has contributed to strengthening those who favored the status quo, leading to a deterioration of stability, lack of economic progress, increased inequalities, social malaise, and the instrumentalization of identity and fear to hide the inability to respond to regional demands and needs.

In conclusion, while the EU presented itself as a 'transformative power' in the South, and its Mediterranean partners agreed with the transformative agenda in 1995, policies supporting the 'stability of authoritarianism' have significantly reinforced actors who favored the status quo. This has led to a decline in stability, economic progress, rising inequalities, and social distress, while also being used to mask the EU's inability to address the region's demands and needs effectively.