In the March 2018 report from CIDOB, titled "The Marshal Al Sisi's Entrenchment in Egypt", it is observed that despite a significant decline in his popularity, President Abdelfata Al Sisi maintains strong control over Egypt and its institutions. This control is evident through the implementation of a tough economic adjustment program by his government, which has also been met with cyclic surges of Islamist group activity. The regime has responded by intensifying repression against any visible form of dissent to prevent any potential protests.
The preparation for the presidential elections, scheduled between March 26 and 28, has highlighted the tightening of the dictatorship. In contrast to four years prior when the opposition was allowed to run a candidate, this time, the authorities have imprisoned or discouraged all significant political candidates from running for presidency through harassment.
Despite the international support and apparent loyalty of the state apparatus, there seems to be no end to the "Al Sisi era". The report highlights the regime's use of political repression and the manipulation of the election process to maintain power. The military and security establishments perceive that the previous margin of freedom allowed was too extensive, leading to erosion of legitimacy and fostering a potential uprising.
During the last election cycle, Al Sisi appealed to the spirit of sacrifice of the citizens for two years, hoping to lift the country out of economic crisis within that timeframe. However, four years later, the situation for the middle and lower classes remains precarious. The only way to prevent the opposition from reaching the masses was to prohibit any candidacy.
Key figures like the prominent lawyer, Jaled Ali, who led the legal battle against the unpopular cession of two Red Sea islands to Saudi Arabia, and the liberal politician, Anwar Sadat (the nephew of the assassinated former president), were either imprisoned or withdrew their candidacies due to arrests and threats. Other high-ranking retired military figures, such as Ahmed Shafiq and Sami Anan, faced similar pressures and were even arrested.
The report concludes that while the mainstream Western media assumed that Egypt could no longer be governed through dictatorship in the 21st century, the military and security establishments believed that too much freedom was granted. The report suggests that the current policy of zero tolerance towards dissent is a direct response to perceived threats to the legitimacy of the system. Despite the crackdown on potential candidates and the small opposition parties, there's still a consensus among international media that Al Sisi's presidency faces challenges.
