俄罗斯对乌克兰战争的悖论 ： 政治学可以帮助吗 ？

CIDOB Opinion 715 discusses the paradoxes surrounding Russia's war against Ukraine, emphasizing the challenges faced by political analysts in understanding the rationale and goals of the conflict. The report identifies several key points:

1. Misalignment between Perceptions and Reality: The Putin regime is perceived largely as performative, with a focus on symbolic and artificial narratives. This perception has led to underestimation of the regime's capabilities and seriousness in pursuing a military confrontation.

2. Inadequate Understanding of the Political Imagery: The "society of the spectacle" theory, where reality is consumed through media, entertainment, and advertisements, has overshadowed the understanding of how these narratives can have real-world, physical impacts. This misunderstanding has prevented serious consideration of the potential for a real military conflict.

3. Paradoxical Aims of the Conflict: The war's aims and goals remain unclear, especially regarding the "de-militarization" and "de-Nazification" of Ukraine, and the appeal to Ukrainian military forces to take power themselves. These aims are seen as contradictory and not well-defined, possibly rooted in historical analogies that lack analytical grounding.

4. Underestimation of Will to Resist: Experts highlight the underestimation of the Ukrainian society's will to resist and withstand, along with overestimation of Western political weakness and indecisiveness. This suggests a gap in understanding the internal resilience of Ukraine and the external responses to the conflict.

5. Groupthink in Decision-Making: The report explores the concept of groupthink, where critical decisions made by a small group are suboptimal due to the suppression of dissenting opinions and filtering out of alternative information. This is particularly problematic in an authoritarian setting where diverse viewpoints are suppressed.

6. Geopolitical Isolation: Russia's unilateral military action without a supporting coalition or alliance highlights its geopolitical isolation. This is attributed to historical trends favoring multilateralism in liberal international societies and Russia's inability to mobilize support even among its satellite states.

The report concludes that while political science offers various frameworks to understand the complexities of the conflict, the war against Ukraine is forcing a reevaluation of fundamental political concepts such as sovereignty, security, and borders. Despite the inability to predict such a significant event, there is potential for valuable lessons to be learned.