2024美国对气候变化的理解报告（英文版）

ClimateInsights2024|AmericanUnderstandingofClimateChangeA Report24-11 AmericanUnderstandingofClimateChange JonA.KrosnickandBoMacInnis AbouttheAuthors JonA.KrosnickisasocialpsychologistwithaPhDfromtheUniversityofMichiganwhodoesresearchonattitudeformation,change,andeffects;psychologyofpoliticalbehavior;andsurveyresearchmethods.HeistheFredericO.GloverProfessorinHumanitiesandSocialSciencesandProfessorofCommunication,PoliticalScience,andPsychologyat StanfordUniversity,wherehedirectsthePoliticalPsychologyResearchGroup.Krosnickhasauthoredtenbooksandmorethan210articlesandchapters,inadditiontoop-edessays.HeisthewinneroftheNevittSanfordAwardforhisworkinpoliticalpsychologyandtheAmericanAssociationforPublicOpinionResearchawardforhisworkonsurveyresearchmethodsandpublicopinion.HeisauniversityfellowatResourcesfortheFuture. BoMacInnisisaneconomistwithaPhDfromtheUniversityofCaliforniaatBerkeley.Herresearchfocusesonclimatechangeandsurveyresearchmethods.SheisalecturerintheDepartmentofCommunication,andregularlycollaborateswithDr.Krosnickonclimatechangeresearch. AboutRFF ResourcesfortheFuture(RFF)isanindependent,nonprofitresearchinstitutioninWashington,DC.Itsmissionistoimproveenvironmental,energy,andnaturalresourcedecisionsthroughimpartialeconomicresearchandpolicyengagement. RFFiscommittedtobeingthemostwidelytrustedsourceofresearchinsightsandpolicysolutionsleadingtoahealthyenvironmentandathrivingeconomy.TheviewsexpressedherearethoseoftheindividualauthorsandmaydifferfromthoseofotherRFFexperts,itsofficers,oritsdirectors. AbouttheProject Since1997,StanfordUniversityProfessorJonA.KrosnickhasexploredAmericanpublicopinionontheseissuesthroughaseriesofrigorousnationalsurveysofrandomsamplesofAmericanadults,oftenincollaborationwithRFF.Thislatestreportisthefirstinthe2024ClimateInsightsreportseriesbyresearchersatStanfordUniversityandRFFexaminingAmericanpublicopiniononissuesrelatedtoclimatechange. Forthe2024iterationoftheClimateInsightssurvey,1,000Americanadultswereinterviewedduringthe130-dayperiodfromOctober16,2023,toFebruary23,2024. ThisClimateInsightsreportfocusesonAmericans’beliefsandcertainty,aswellaspublicopiniononthethreatsofclimatechangeandwhoshouldberesponsibletoacttomitigateit.FutureinstallmentsinthisserieswilladdressAmericanpublicopiniononclimatepoliciesandpolitics,environmentaljustice,andareasofpartisanagreementanddisagreement.Thisseriesisaccompaniedbyaninteractivedatatool,which canbeusedtoviewspecificdatafromthesurvey.Pleasevisithttps://www.rff.org/climateinsightsorhttps://climatepublicopinion.stanford.edu/formoreinformationandtoaccessthedatatool,reportseries,andmore. Note:Whenthisresearchprogrambeganin1997,“globalwarming”wasthetermincommonparlance.Thattermwasusedthroughoutthesurveysoverthedecadesandwasalwaysdefinedforrespondentssoitwasproperlyunderstood.Theterm“climatechange”hasriseninpopularity,sobothtermsareusedinthisreportinterchangeably.Whendescribingsurveyquestionwordingsandresults,theterm“globalwarming”isused,tomatchthetermreferencedduringinterviews.Empiricalstudieshaveshownthatsurveyrespondentsinterprettheterms“globalwarming”and“climatechange”tohaveequivalentmeanings(VillarandKrosnick2011). Acknowledgments TheauthorsandcontributorsthankAngeliqueUglow(ReconMR),JaredMcDonald(MaryWashingtonUniversity),andRossvanderLinde(Mappica).Inaddition,theauthorsthankresearchersandstaffatResourcesfortheFuture(RFF):KevinRennert,KristinHayes,BillyPizer,RayKopp,AnnieMcDarris,DonniePeterson,CarolineHamilton,SaraKangas,andKristinaGawrgy. FundingforthissurveywasprovidedbyStanfordUniversity(theWoodsInstitutefortheEnvironment,thePrecourtInstituteforEnergy,andtheDoerrSchoolofSustainability),RFF,andReconMR. SharingOurWork OurworkisavailableforsharingandadaptationunderanAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives4.0International(CCBY-NC-ND4.0)license.Youcancopyandredistributeourmaterialinanymediumorformat;youmustgiveappropriatecredit,providealinktothelicense,andindicateifchangesweremade,andyoumaynotapplyadditionalrestrictions.Youmaydosoinanyreasonablemanner,butnotinanywaythatsuggeststhelicensorendorsesyouoryouruse. Youmaynotusethematerialforcommercialpurposes.Ifyouremix,transform,orbuilduponthematerial,youmaynotdistributethemodifiedmaterial.Formoreinformation,visithttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. Useofanymaterialinthispublicationshouldbecreditedtothefollowing:Krosnick,JonA.,andBoMacInnis.2024.ClimateInsights2024:AmericanUnderstandingofClimateChange.Washington,DC:ResourcesfortheFuture. Thedataincludedinthisreportcomesfromsourceswithvaryingsharingpolicies.Pleasecheckthereferencesformoreinformation,andemailkrosnick@stanford.eduwithanyquestions. Contents Introduction1 Fundamentals2 CausesandThreat6 IssueEngagement8 DesiredEfforttoDealwithGlobalWarming10 PersonalObservationsofRecentWeather12 SourcesofElectricity14 TrustinandAgreementamongEnvironmentalScientists15 Conclusion16 References17 Introduction Forovertwodecades,thePoliticalPsychologyResearchGroupatStanfordUniversityandResourcesfortheFuture(RFF)hasbeentrackingAme