2024气候变化和老龄化的双重影响报告（英文版）

13June2024 03 Agingandhealthcosts 11 Theindirectorpotentiallong-termeffectsofclimatechange 07 Climatechangehasalreadytakenitstoll 12 Theimpactofclimatechangeonhealthexpenditures 10 Thedirecteffectsofcli-matechange 17 Goinggreenisthebetterairconditioner AllianzResearch Climatechangeand thedoubleimpactofaging Executive Summary ArneHolzhausen HeadofInsurance,Wealth&TrendResearcharne.holzhausen@allianz.com MichaelaGrimm SeniorEconomist,Demography&SocialProtectionmichaela.grimm@allianz.com MarkusZimmer SeniorEconomist,ESGmarkus.zimmer@allianz.com WiththecontributionofFrancescoIezzi •Climatechangewillcompoundtheriseinhealthexpenditurealreadyexpectedduetoagingsocieties.Withthetotalnumberofpeopleaged60andolderintheEU27memberstatesandNorwayandSwitzerlandsettoincreaseto152mn,fromaround130mntoday,healthcostspercapitaarelikelytoriseby +8.5%until2035.Butthiscouldbeexacerbatedbyclimatechange,whichaffectsolderpersonsdisproportionally.Climatechangehasalreadycaused157,000prematuredeathsintheEuropeancountriesweanalyzebetween2000and2023. •Thedirecteffectsofclimatechangeincludeincreasedinjuriesduetoextremeweathereventssuchasfloods,stormsandcyclones,forestfiresorheatwaves.Theheatwaveexposureofpersonsaged65hasalmostdoubledinthedecadeto2020,evenbeforetherecentspateofrecord-hotyears.Furthermore,whilewarmerwatersintheNorthofEuropefosterthespreadofbacteria,theSouthwillbeaffectedbyanincreaseinvector-bornediseasestransmittedbymosquitoessuchasmalaria,denguefeverortheWestNilevirus,duetorisingairtemperatures. •Therisingprevalenceofheatwavesalonecouldincreasethehealthcostspercapitabetween2%(Ireland)and5%(Greece)until2035.Onaverage,thecostwouldbearound4.9%higherthantoday.However,incombinationwithpopulationaging,healthcostsaresettoincreasebetween+7%(Denmark)and +14%(Poland)(EUaverage:12%). •Buttherearealsoless-visibleindirectandlong-termeffectstoconsider.Heat-relatedstressanddeterioratingsleepqualityaswellasnaturalcatastrophescouldcontributetomentalhealthconditions.Atthesametime,reducedoutdooractivitiesduetoextremetemperaturescouldresultinafurtherriseintheprevalenceofoverweightandobesity.Mentalhealthissuesandobesityarealsoriskfactorsfordevelopingdementiaathigherages.Theseindirectcostsofclimatechangemightadd3%tothepercapitahealthcostsinthelongrun. •Adaptationmeasuresneedtobeimplemented,fast.Urbanplanningplaysakeyrolehere:greenspaces,reflectivematerialsandstructuralmodificationscancontributetoreducingheatincities.Relyingonairconditioning,ontheother hand,isadouble-edgedswordasitcontributestoclimatechangeemissionsandaggravatestheheat-islandeffectincities.Againstthisbackground,alternativemeasuressuchasthegreeningofcitiesarebettersuitedandshouldbethetoppriority. Agingandhealthcosts Sofar,politicianshavebeenmainlyconcernedwiththefinancialimpactofpopulationagingon(public)healthsystems,sincehealthexpenditurespercapitaincreasewithage.Thetotalnumberofpeopleaged60andolderintheEU27memberstatesandneighboringEFTAcountriesNorwayandSwitzerlandissettoincreasefromaround130mntodayto152mnin2035. Toassesstheimpactofagingonthedevelopmentofhealthcostsinthese29countries,weabstractedfrommedicaladvancementsandinflationandassumedthathealthcostspercapitaintherespectiveage groupsremainedconstant.Asanapproximationforthedistributionofhealthcostsbyagegroup,weusedthelatestavailabledataofthenationalstatisticalofficeofSwitzerland.TheaveragehealthcostspercapitaexcostsforcareandadministrationweretakenfromtheEurostatdatabase.Totakeintoaccountthefactthatinsomecountriestheincreaseinfuturetotalhealthexpendituresmightbedampenedbypopulationdecline,weshowthedevelopmentsinpercapitaterms. Ingeneral,healthexpendituresincreaseexponentiallyinhigherages.InSwitzerland,forexample,health expendituresareabovethetotalaverageintheagegroup56andolder,albeittoincreasingextents.Intheagegroup56to60,healthexpendituresarearound12%abovethetotalaverage,whileintheagegroup61to65theyarealreadymorethan30%higherandintheagegroup81andoldertheyaremorethantwicetheaverage(Figure1). Ofcourse,healthcareexpendituresdiffermarkedlybetweenthecountries,dependingontheoveralldevelopmentlevel,aswellasthegenerosityandstructureofhealthsystems.Intheanalyzedcountries,annualhealthcareexpenditurespercapitain2021rangedfromEUR746inRomaniatoEUR6,650inSwitzerland,withtotalhealthexpenditurescorrespondingtobetween4.4%ofGDPinLuxembourgto10.3%ofGDPinPortugal(Figure2). Figure1:Healthexpendituresincreasewithage 3.0 averagehealthexpenditures* 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0to5 6to10 11to15 16to20 21to25 26to30 31to35 36to40 41to45 46to50 51to55 56to60 61to65 66to70 71to75 76to80 81to85 86to90 91to95 96plus 0.0 menwomenaverage *excludinglong-termcareandadministrativeexpendituresSource:FederalStatisticalOfficeofSwitzerland. Figure2:Markeddifferencesinhealthexpenditures* 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 Switzerland NorwayLuxembourgDenmarkAustriaIrelandGermanySwedenNetherlands FinlandFranceBelgium ItalyMaltaSpainCyprusPortugalSloveniaCzechiaEstoniaGreeceLatviaLithuaniaSlovakiaCroatiaHungaryPolandBulgariaRomania 0 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% percapit