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《印尼经济展望》，2024年6月：释放印尼商业潜力（英）

文化传媒2024-07-09世界银行刘***

AI智能总结

Indonesia Economic Prospects: June 2024

Executive Summary

A. Recent Economic Developments

GDP Growth: Solid growth, bolstered by robust private and public demand.
Capacity Utilization: Increased capacity utilization in various sectors.
Inflation: Headline inflation eased, but food prices remained strong, partly due to disruptions in the domestic food supply chain.
Capital Flows: Significant capital outflows noted, particularly in April, but reversed in May following the central bank's policy rate hike.

B. Unleashing Indonesia’s Business Potential

Part A: Recent Economic Developments

Policy Stance: The policy environment has been supportive, facilitating economic growth.
Structural Trends: Emerging trends include service sector growth outpacing manufacturing, and shifts within the manufacturing sector.
Outlook and Risks: The economy faces challenges including regulatory uncertainty and risks from global economic fluctuations.
Policy Priorities: Focus areas include improving business environment, enhancing infrastructure, and strengthening social safety nets.

Part B: Performance of the Private Sector

Performance: The private sector has shown resilience, contributing significantly to economic growth.
Regulatory Uncertainty: This remains a key challenge, affecting investment decisions and operational efficiencies.
Tackling Regulatory Uncertainty: Strategies include simplifying regulations, enhancing transparency, and reducing bureaucratic hurdles.

Takeaways and Policy Recommendations

Enhance Regulatory Environment: Streamline regulations, improve transparency, and reduce bureaucratic processes.
Strengthen Social Safety Nets: Improve coverage and efficiency of social protection programs.
Promote Investment: Facilitate easier access to finance and reduce barriers to entry for businesses.
Focus on Infrastructure: Invest in critical infrastructure to support economic growth and enhance connectivity.
Address Inequality: Implement policies to reduce inequality and ensure inclusive growth.

Key Highlights

GDP Growth: Solid, supported by strong private and public demand.
Services Growth: Resilient, contributing over half of GDP growth.
Manufacturing Shifts: Notable diversification and specialization within the sector.
Regulatory Challenges: Addressing regulatory uncertainty to boost business confidence.
Policy Priorities: Emphasizing improvements in business environment, infrastructure, and social protection.

Conclusion

The IEP underscores the dynamic yet challenging economic landscape of Indonesia, highlighting the importance of targeted policy interventions to address regulatory uncertainties, promote inclusive growth, and enhance the business environment. Key recommendations focus on streamlining regulations, improving infrastructure, and strengthening social safety nets to drive sustainable economic development.

PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized INDONESIAECONOMICPROSPECTS IEP UnleashingIndonesia’sBusinessPotential June2024 ©2024InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNW WashingtonDC20433 Telephone:202-473-1000Internet:www.worldbank.org ThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions,andissupportedbyfundingfromtheAustralianGovernmentundertheAustralia-WorldBankIndonesiaPartnership(ABIP)program.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent,ortheAustralianGovernment. TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracy,completeness,orcurrencyofthedataincludedinthisworkanddoesnotassumeresponsibilityforanyerrors,omissions,ordiscrepanciesintheinformation,orliabilitywithrespecttotheuseoforfailuretousetheinformation,methods,processes,orconclusionssetforth.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries. Nothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconstruedorconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivileges andimmunitiesofTheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved. RightsandPermissions Thematerialinthisworkissubjecttocopyright.BecauseTheWorldBankencouragesdisseminationofitsknowledge,thisworkmaybereproduced,inwholeorinpart,fornoncommercialpurposesaslongasfullattributiontothisworkisgiven. Anyqueriesonrightsandlicenses,includingsubsidiaryrights,shouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBankGroup,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;fax:202-522-2625;e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. Photocreditsfor Frontcover:©ayaankabir/vecteezy.com;©pressfoto/freepik.com;©MuhammadRizki/unsplash.com; ©Aipcreative/shutterstock;and©MUNGKHOODSTUDIO/shutterstock.com ExecutiveSummary:©MuhammadRizki/unsplash.comPartA:©pressfoto/freepik.com PartB:©Aipcreative/shutterstock;©MUNGKHOODSTUDIO/shutterstock.com;©GeraldineLewa/unsplash.com Furtherpermissionrequiredforreuse. ThereportwasdesignedandtypesetbyArsianti. TableofContents TableofContents ExecutiveSummary IndonesiaEconomicProspectsJune2024 LISTOFFIGURES,TABLES,ANDBOXESPREFACEABBREVIATIONSEXECUTIVESUMMARY IVVIVII1 I.EconomicUpdate 1 II.UnleashingIndonesia’sBusinessPotential 3 A.ECONOMICUPDATE 6 1.RecentEconomicDevelopments 6 2.ThePolicyStance 11 3.StructuralTrends 15 4.TheOutlookandRisks 20 5.PolicyPriorities 23 B.UNLEASHINGINDONESIA’SBUSINESSPOTENTIAL 27 1.Introduction 27 2.PerformanceofthePrivateSector 30 3.TacklingRegulatoryUncertainty,theNextChallenge 34 4.TakeawaysandPolicyRecommendations 40 ANNEX 42 REFERENCES 43 CLICKTHESIDE B.3.TacklingRegualatoryUncertainty, theNextChallenge B.4.TakeawaysandPolicy Recommendations BUTTONSTOGOTO III A.1.RecentEconomic Developments A.2.ThePolicyStance A.3.StructuralTrends A.4.OutlookandRisks B.2.PerformanceofthePrivateSector A.5.PolicyPriorities B.1.Introduction THESECTIONYOUWISHTOREAD. IndonesiaEconomicProspectsJune2024 UnleashingIndonesia’sBusinessPotential TableofContents LISTOFFIGURES,TABLES,ANDBOXES FIGURES ExecutiveSummary FigureA.1:GDPgrowthremainssolid,supportedbystrongprivateandpublicdemand6 FigureA.2:Capacityutilizationhasbeenincreasing6 A.1.RecentEconomic Developments FigureA.3:Headlineinflationeased,butfoodpriceinflationremainedstrong…7 FigureA.4:…partlyduetochallengesinthedomesticfoodsupplychain,particularlyinrice7 FigureA.5:Aprilsawthelargestcapitaloutflowsinthepasttwoyears9 FigureA.6:PortfoliooutflowswerelargerthanthoseobservedinASEANEMpeers,butsituationreveredin9 MayafterBIpolicyratehike A.2.ThePolicyStance FigureA.7:Indonesia’ssovereignyieldspreadagainsttheUSisnarrowerthanforEMpeers9 FigureA.8:TheRupiahdepreciatedmodestlyinrealeffectivetermsamongregionalpeers9 FigureA.9:Thecurrentaccountdeficitwidenedduetonarrowersurplusingoodstrade9 A.3.StructuralTrends FigureA.10:Indonesia’sratioofreservestoIMF’sARAmetricwasthelowestamongpeers9 FigureA.11:Bankshaveadequatebufferstowithstandpotentialadverseshocks11 FigureA.12:LendingtotheprivatesectorexpandedinMarch11 FigureA.13:Fiscalbalancepostedasmallsurplus…12 A.4.OutlookandRisks FigureA.14:…asrevenuesdeclinedwithsubsidingcommoditywindfalls12 FigureA.15:Atthesametime,expendituregrowthpickedupsignificantly13 FigureA.16:Andthegovernmentincreaseditssocialprotectionspending13 FigureA.17:Indonesia’sgeneralgovernmentcapitalstockisamongthelowestamongpeers13 A.5.PolicyPriorities FigureA.18:DemandforIndonesiangovernmentbondslessened13 FigureA.19:ThestabilityofRupiahhasbeenparallelwithchangesinnetFXreserves15 FigureA.20:SRBIyieldsrosesignificantlyfollowingtheAprilhikeinBIRates15 B.1.Introduction FigureA.21:ServicesgrowthhasbeenaccountingformorethanhalfofGDPgrowth16 FigureA.22:Post-COVID-19,themanufacturingsectorhasexperiencednotableshifts16 FigureA.23:Theservicessectorgrowthhasbeenresilient,consistentlyoutpacingmanufacturing

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