加勒比地区家庭的灾害风险防范（英）

PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10807 DisasterRiskPreparednessofHouseholdsintheCaribbean BoazAngladeEmiliaCucagnaJacobusdeHoop AnnaLuisaPaffhausens PovertyandEquityGlobalPracticeJune2024 PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10807 Abstract Preparingfor—andrespondingto—disastersrequiresapeople-centeredapproachandastrongunderstandingofhouseholds’abilitytocopewithshocks.Relyingonnovelhouseholdsurveydata,thispaperexaminestheabilityofhouseholdsintheCaribbeantocopewithdisasterscausedbynaturalhazards.Theanalysisshedslightondisasterpreparednessinfive“datadeprived”countries:Belize,Dominica,Haiti,SaintLucia,andSuriname.Theanalysispointstoaclearincomegradientinpossessionofemergencysuppliesneededtocopewithdisasters.Thisgradientcanbeobservedatboththecountryandhouseholdlevels.Incontrast,nosuchincomegradientisobservedforotherkey elementsofpreparationfordisasters:communitydisastermanagementsystemsanddiscussionofriskmitigationstrat-egieswithinhouseholds(bothofwhicharecommonintheCaribbeanhurricanebelt).Thereissubstantialvariationinpreparednesstocopewithdisastersacrosssociodemographicgroups,ashouseholdswithlesseducatedheads,withchil-dren,andresidinginruralareasaregenerallylessabletohandledisasters.Allinall,alargeshareofhouseholdsinallfivecountriesindicatesthattheyarenotpreparedtocopewithanaturaldisaster.TheCOVID-19pandemichadanegativeimpactondisasterriskpreparedness,primarilyduetohouseholds’deterioratingfinancialcircumstances. ThispaperisaproductofthePovertyandEquityGlobalPractice.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebathttp://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Theauthorsmaybecontactedatbanglade@worldbank.org,mcucagna@worldbank.org,jdehoop@worldbank.org,andapaffhausen@worldbank.org. ThePolicyResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogresstoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutdevelopmentissues.Anobjectiveoftheseriesistogetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeam DisasterRiskPreparednessofHouseholdsintheCaribbean BoazAnglade,EmiliaCucagna,JacobusdeHoop,andAnnaLuisaPaffhausen Keywords:Caribbean;Disasters;Naturalhazards;Preparedness;Survey JELCodes:F64,H84,N56,O13,Q54,Q56 TheauthorsareallaffiliatedwiththeWorldBankandappearinalphabeticalorder.ThecorrespondingauthorisJacobusdeHoop,whocanbereachedat:jdehoop@worldbank.org.BoazAngladecanbereachedatbanglade@worldbank.org,EmiliaCucagnaatmcucagna@worldbank.org,andAnnaLuisaPaffhausenatapaffhausen@worldbank.org.WethankCarlosRodriguezCastellanandElianaRubianoMatulevicfordetailedinputsandsuggestionsonearlierdrafts. 1.Introduction IntheCaribbean,disasterscausedbynaturalhazardsarebothfrequentandcostly.ManyCaribbeancountrieslieinthepathofdestructiveAtlantichurricanesandareregularlythreatenedbytropicalcyclones.Theestimatedhumanandeconomictollofthesetropicalstormsissubstantial.Forexample,2017HurricaneMariakilleddozensandcameatanestimatedcostof226percentofGDPontheislandofDominica(GovernmentoftheCommonwealthofDominica,2017).Globalwarmingiscompoundingtheproblembymakingtheseextremeweathereventsmorefrequentandsevere. WhiletheCaribbeanisfrequentlyinthenewsduringthehurricaneseason,tropicalstormsarenottheonlynaturalhazardthreateningtheregion.Seismicandvolcanicactivityisrelativelyhigh.AstheCaribbeanislandsarelocatedontheboundaryoftwotectonicplates,theregionispronetoearthquakes,volcaniceruptions,andTsunamis(see,e.g.,U.S.GeologicalService,2018;UniversityoftheWestIndies(UWI)SeismicResearchCentre,Undated).Haiti,forinstance,wasstruckbyacatastrophicearthquakeinJanuary2010.Estimatesofthehumandeathtollrangeconsiderablybutpointtoatleast100,000casualties.Theaftermathoftheearthquakewasdevastatingtoo;manyhouseholdshadlosttheirhomesandbelongings,andgender-basedviolenceandfoodinsecurityincreasedsignificantly(Kolbeetal.,2010). Withclimatechange,rainfallpatternsintheCaribbeanarebecomingincreasinglyerraticandfloodrisksareincreasing.Suriname,forinstance,experiencedheavyrainsatthebeginningof2022,usuallyadrytimeoftheyear.Theresultingfloods,especiallyintheinteriorofthecountry,forcedtheprolongedclosureofschoolsandmedicalposts.Otherexamplesoffloods,droughts,andlandslidesintheregionabound.Intotal,since1950,accordingtoÖtkerandSrinivasan(2018),hundredsofdisastershavehitsmallstatesintheCaribbean,“killing250,000peopleandaffectingmorethan24millionthroughinjuryandlossofhomesandassets”. Preparingfor–andrespondingto–thesedisasters,requiresapeople-centeredapproachandastrongunderstandingofhouseholds’perceivedrisksandabilitytocopewithrisks(e.g.,