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Firms’ Response to Climate Regulations-Empirical Investigations Based on the European Emissions Trading System

2024-06-28IMF喜***

Firms’ResponsetoClimateRegulations EmpiricalInvestigationsBasedontheEuropeanEmissionsTradingSystem FotiosKalantzis,SalmaKhalid,AlexandraSolovyeva,andMarcinWolski WP/24/135 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate. TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. 2024 JUN ©2024InternationalMonetaryFundWP/24/135 IMFWorkingPaper FiscalAffairsDepartment Firms’ResponsetoClimateRegulations: EmpiricalInvestigationsBasedontheEuropeanEmissionsTradingSystem PreparedbyFotiosKalantzis,SalmaKhalid,AlexandraSolovyeva,andMarcinWolski* AuthorizedfordistributionbyDavideFurceriJune2024 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.ViewsexpressedherealsodonotrepresenttheviewsoftheEuropeanInvestmentBankmanagement. ABSTRACT:Usinganovelcross-countrydataset,whichmergesfirm-levelfinancialswithinformationonfirms’participationintheEuropeanUnions’EmissionsTradingSystem(ETS),weinvestigatehowfirmperformanceisaffectedbytighteningofenvironmentalpoliciesthatputapriceonpollution.WefindthatmorestringentpoliciesdonothaveastrongnegativeimpactontheprofitabilityofETS-regulatedornon-ETSfirms.Whilefirmsreportanincreaseintheirinputcostsduringperiodsofhighcarbonprices,theirreportedturnoverisalsohigher.AmongETS-regulatedfirmswhichmustpurchaseemissioncertificatesundertheEUETS,tighteningofclimatepoliciesinperiodsofhighcarbonpricesresultsinincreasedinvestment,particularlyinintangibleassets.Weestablishrobustnessofourresultsusingaquantileregressionanalysis,ensuringourkeyfindingsarenotdrivenbydistributionalirregularities.OurfindingsprovidesupportforthebenefitsofEUETSonacceleratingfirms’climatetransition,whilekeepingfirm-levelfinancialcostsatbay. RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Kalantzis,Fotios,SalmaKhalid,AlexandraSolovyeva,andMarcinWolski.2024.EmpiricalInvestigationsBasedontheEuropeanEmissionsTradingSystem,IMFWorkingPaperNo.24/135. JELClassificationNumbers: C58,G32,Q51,Q56,Q58 Keywords: climatefinance;climatechange;decarbonization;firm-levelanalysis;EmissionsTradingSystem(ETS) Author’sE-MailAddress: f.kalantzis@eib.org;skhalid@imf.org;asolovyeva@imf.org;m.wolski@eib.org *TheauthorswouldliketothankEraDabla-Norris,W.RaphaelLam,LaurentMaurin,DeboraRevoltella,theparticipantsattheIMFWorkshoponClimateTransitioninJuly2023,andtheEuropeanNetworkforResearchonInvestment(ENRI)conferenceinNovember2023,forusefulcommentsandsuggestionsontheearlierversionsofthismanuscript.SomeoftheresultsfromthisstudywerefeaturedintheOctober2023FiscalMonitor. WORKINGPAPERS Firms’ResponsetoClimateRegulations EmpiricalInvestigationsBasedontheEuropeanEmissionsTradingSystem PreparedbyFotiosKalantzis,SalmaKhalid,AlexandraSolovyeva,andMarcinWolski* *TheauthorswouldliketothankEraDabla-Norris,W.RaphaelLam,LaurentMaurin,DeboraRevoltella,theparticipantsattheIMFWorkshoponClimateTransitioninJuly2023,andtheEuropeanNetworkforResearchonInvestment(ENRI)conferenceinNovember2023,forusefulcommentsandsuggestionsontheearlierversionsofthismanuscript.SomeoftheresultsfromthisstudywerefeaturedintheOctober2023FiscalMonitor. Contents 1.Introduction3 2.TheEUEmissionsTradingSystem5 3.DataandEmpiricalSpecification9 4.Results13 5.Robustness16 6.Conclusion21 AnnexI23 References27 1.Introduction CarbonpricingisakeypolicyinstrumentforreducingGreenhouseGas(GHG)emissionsandmitigatingclimaterisks.Itworksbyincreasingthecostofcarbon-basedfuelsrelativetolesscarbon-intensiveand/orenergyefficientalternatives,thuscreatingincentivesforfirmsandconsumerstoswitchtolesscarbon-intensivetechnologiesandbehaviors.However,carbonpricingmayalsohaveimplicationsfortheeconomicperformanceoffirms,especiallythosedirectlyregulatedunderacarbonpricingscheme.Theimpactofcarbonpricingonfirmsmaydependonseveralfactors,suchasthestringencyofregulation,thelevelofthecarbonprice,theavailabilityoflow-carbonalternatives,thedegreeofcompetition,andtheabilitytopassonthecoststoconsumers,amongothers(Dechezlepretreetal.,2023). TheEuropeanUnion’sEmissionsTradingSystem(ETS)isthelargestandlongestrunningcarbonmarketintheworld,launchedin2005andcoveringnearly40percentoftheEU’stotalGHGemissions.TheETSoperatesbysettingacaponthetotalamountofemissionsthatcanbeemittedbyregulatedinstallationsandallowingtheirownerstotradeemissionallowancesinthesecondarymarket,withtheEU-wideemissioncapdecreasingeveryyear.Attheendofeachyear,ownersoftheinstallationsneedtogivebackthenumberofallowancesmatchingtheactualemissions.Thepriceofemissionallowancesreflectsthescarcityofthepermitsandthemarginalcostofabatement.StudiesthatexploretheimpactoftheEUETSonfirmperformanceshowmixedresults,partlyduetotheuseofdifferentsamples,timeframes,andvariationsinmethodology(Martinetal.,2016;CalelandDechezlepretre,2016;Abrelletal.,2019). Ourworkextendsthisliteraturebyexaminingho

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Firms’ Response to Climate Regulations-Empirical Investigations Based on the European Emissions Trading System

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