分析师注：汽车软件（英）

PitchBookData,Inc. NizarTarhuniVicePresident,InstitutionalResearchandEditorial PaulCondraHeadofEmergingTechnologyResearch InstitutionalResearchGroup Analysis JonathanGeurkinkSeniorAnalyst,EmergingTechnology jonathan.geurkink@pitchbook.compbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Publishing DesignedbyMeganWoodard PublishedonJune5,2024 EMERGINGTECHRESEARCH AutomotiveSoftware SoftwaredevelopmentcontinuestovexautomotiveOEMs PitchBookisaMorningstarcompanyprovidingthemostcomprehensive,mostaccurate,andhard-to-finddataforprofessionalsdoingbusinessintheprivatemarkets. Keytakeaways •Softwareistransformingtheautomotiveindustry,butautoOEMs,withtheirtraditionalengineeringcultures,arestrugglingtoadapt. ContentsKeytakeaways 1 • Introduction 2 Theengineeringchallenge 3 Anallianceofalliances 4 • Chinesecompetition 5 WilltariffsandturmoilatTesla 6 •The“smartphoneonwheels”metaphorisusefultoapoint,butcarspotentiallyofferdevelopersamuchbroaderandrichersetofAPIswithwhichtocreatedriverandpassengerexperiences. AutoOEMsmustmanageaninternalclashofculturesanddevelopmentapproachesastheyadoptAgilemethodswhilemaintainingthesafetyandreliabilityofphysicalsystems. TeslahaschallengedtheindustryinpartbydrivingsoftwareandAgiledevelopmentdeepintoitsvehicles,manufacturing,andoperationswiththeTeslaOS. provideprotection? •ChineseEVmanufacturershavebenefitedfromstartingwithacleanslateandadoptingafast-followerstrategyvis-à-visTesla,butnowtheyareblazingtheirowntrailwithrapiddevelopmentcyclesandnew,uniquedriverexperiencesamidfiercecompetition. •Thestartupecosystemcouldhelpjump-starttraditionalOEMs’andsuppliers’softwareeffortsasthelatteropenupAPIstothird-partydevelopmentandbroaderalliances. 1 Introduction Softwareistransformingtheautomotiveindustry.Theopportunityisimmense.McKinsey&Co.projects$250billionto$400billioninannualincrementalvalueby2030forconnectivitysolutionsandin-cardigitalofferingsalone.1Acommonmetaphoris“asmartphoneonwheels,”butautomotivesoftwarehasthepotential tooffermuchmore.Today’scarshavemanymoresensors,actuators,controls,andinterfacesavailabletodevelopersthanthoseofamerehand-heldsmartphone.Formany,thecarisalreadymuchmorethansimplyautilitarianformoftransportation;itisanextensionandexpressionofthedriver’spersonality.Softwarecanenhanceandexpandthatfactorbyprovidingacustomized,personalized,predictive,immersiveexperience.Carefullycraftedon-boardgenerativeAI(GenAI) assistantscanbeconversational,hands-freecopilots,navigators,DJs,andeventravelcompanions. Traditionalautomotiveoriginalequipmentmanufacturersarestrugglingtocreateseamlesssoftwareexperiences. Sofar,however,tosayresultshavebeenmixedwouldbekind.AMcKinseysurveyshowselectricvehicle(EV)buyersasthemostreceptive,with69%planningtoincreasetheiruseofconnectivityofferings,comparedwith47%oftraditionalbuyers.2Unfortunately,thesamesurveyshowsthatjust17%ofcarbuyersaresatisfiedwithexistingsolutions.3Traditionalautomotiveoriginalequipmentmanufacturers(OEMs)arestrugglingtocreateseamlesssoftwareexperiences.GoogleandApplehavesteppedintocaptureautomotivescreenswithsmartphoneconnectivityandtheirfamiliarinterfacesandcontrols,butthetug-of-warbetweensmartphoneandautoOEMsoftwarecanbejarringfordriversandpassengers.TraditionalautoOEMsdonotwanttoberelegatedto mereprovidersofcommodifiedhardwarewithallthevalueandmarginaccruingtosoftwarevendors,ashappenedinthePCindustry.Atits2022WorldwideDevelopersConference,AppletoutedthedramaticpenetrationofAppleCarPlay throughouttheautoindustry—79%ofUScarbuyersconsideronlyCarPlay-capablevehicles—anddemoedascreenthatstretchedacrossthedashboard,consumingtheinstrumentclusterandpromising“moretocome”forthe2023conference.Atthetime,itwasalreadyanopensecretthatApplehadbeendevelopingacar,butthedemoreverberatedintheC-suiteofmanyautoOEMs.Inthespringof2023,GM announcedplanstodropAppleCarPlayandAndroidAutoinsubsequentEVreleasesinfavorofitsin-houseUltifiplatform.Thedivorcehasnotbeenpretty.AfterstrugglingwiththeglitchyUltifisystem,onenewChevyBlazerEVownersaidthatthenavigationscreenmightbeusefulasasuction-cupmountforhisiPhone.4 AddressingthechallengeandcontrollingwhatcouldbecomethekeysourceofvalueintheautomotiveindustryrequiresignificantculturalandorganizationalchangesfortraditionalautoOEMsandtheirsupplychains.Itmayalsooffersubstantialopportunitiesforstartups. 1:“HowDoConsumersPerceiveIn-CarConnectivityandDigitalServices?”McKinsey&Company,AlexanderMatthey,etal.,September13,2023.2:Ibid. 3:Ibid. 4:“WillGMRegretKickingAppleCarPlayOfftheDashboard?”Bloomberg,AustinCarrandDavidWelch,May1,2024. Theengineeringchallenge Thesmartphonemetaphorisusefultoapoint,butmovingbeyondthescreen,vehiclesposeseveraldifferentlevelsofdesignanddevelopmentconstraints.Ifonedropsasmartphoneorifanappcrashes,itisinconvenientandmayrequireatriptothestore,butifasteeringorbrakingsystemfailsinthevehicle,theresultcanbecatastrophic.Vehicledevelopmentoperateswithinathicketofregulatoryconstraintsandrules.Moreover,vehiclesaresystemsofsystemsandsubassemblies.AutoOEMssitatopabroadanddeepnetworkofsuppliersthatareresponsibleforcreati