去全球化对保险业的影响（英）2024

Theeffectofdeglobalizationoninsurance Insurerswillfindresilienceamidthechaosbyanticipatingandrespondingswiftlytoemergingchallengeswithinnovationandresourcefulness. Inbrief •Theeraofabundantglobalsupplychainsiscomingtoanend.Replacingitisabipolarormultipolarworldshapedbygeopoliticalconflict,risingnationalismandamultidecadeshifttorebuildsupplychainsnear-shoreandon-shore. •Theresultofdeglobalizationforinsurancecompaniesisscarcityofgoodsandmaterialscausingincreasedandunexpectedclaimsseverity. •Insurerscanandwillrespondwithmoresophisticatedpricing,underwritingandcapacitymodelsandastrongerfocusonriskmitigation,whichcollectivelywillstabilizetheindustry,butcustomerswillfeeltheeffectsintheformofhigherpremiumsforyearstocome. Thepropertyandcasualty(P&C)insuranceindustryisaccustomedtoweatheringstorms,bothmetaphoricalandliteral.Buttheindustryisfacingaparticularstormithasneverfacedbefore:thechangefromthelast 35yearsofglobalizedmassproductionofgoodsandservicesbacktofragmented,protectionistproductionnetworksandsupplychains. Thewindsofdeglobalizationaregatheringstrengthandthreatentoimpactourindustryinprofoundways. Whendisasterstrikes,whetheritbeanaturalcalamityoraman-madecatastrophe,theinsuranceindustryistheretoprovideasafetynetandhelprebuildwhathasbeenlost.Theindustrydoesthisatspeedandscaleand(relatively)lowcostinpartbyrelyingonthedistributedandimmenseglobalproductionsystems. Butwhathappenswhenthoseglobalsupplychainsbegintounravel? Foryearshumanityhasenjoyedthebenefitsofasprawlingglobalproductionnetwork,wherematerialsandlaborcouldbesourcedfromallovertheworldatrelativelylowcosts.Thiseraoflow-costabundance isending.1Now,supplychaindisruptionsaresendingshockwaveseverywhere,andtheinsuranceindustryisnoexception.Forexample,inJanuaryandFebruarytradevolumesintheSuezCanalexperienceda50% declinecomparedtotheprecedingyear,whilePanamaCanaltradesawa32%reduction.2Theseandlikeeventshavearealimpactoninsurance. 1U.S.Bank“Howdosupplychainissuescontributetoinflation?,”April2,2024. 2InternationalMonetaryFund“RedSeaAttacksDisruptGlobalTrade,”March7,2024. 2 Pictureascenariowhereadevastatingstormravagesacommunity.Ithappensoften.FromJanuary2013toJanuary2023,88.5%ofU.S.countiesexperiencedthedeclarationofanaturaldisaster.3Inthosecases,suddenlythereisasurgeindemandforessentialmaterialstorebuildhomes.Yet,whathappenswhen thosematerialsarescarce,eitherduetolocalshortagesorglobalsupplychaindisruptions?Whatdoesitmeanforinsurerswhentheirpromisetohelpishinderedbytheinabilitytoprocurethenecessaryresourcesatareasonablecost?Simply,theinsurersmuststillmeettheircommitmentsandcostsgoup,lossesaccumulate,claimantsexperiencelongdelays.Everyoneloses. Therootcausesofthechangestosupplychainsaretwofold:demographicsandnationalism. Chinaisgrapplingwithadecliningbirthratethatthreatenstoerodeitsworkforce.4In2023alone,China’spopulationdeclinedby2million5,butChinaisnotalone.SouthKorea,JapanandGermanyalsoallhaverapidlyagingworkforcesandareglobalmanufacturingcentersthatwillexperienceacceleratingtrendsofreducedworkingpopulationsandthereforereducedproduction.6EvenwithlargepositiveimmigrationflowstheU.S.populationwillhititspeakin2080anddeclinefromthere.7 Meanwhile,theresurgenceofnationalism,present-dayconflictssuchasthewarinUkraine8and anti-globalizationsentimentsintheU.S.9haveusheredinaneweraofgeopoliticaluncertainty.Theonce-unquestioneddominanceofaglobaltradenetwork isgivingwaytoafragmentedlandscapewhereprotectionismreignssupreme.Whilesomeseethisasareturntohistoricaleconomicpatterns,itisalsoa completereshapingofthesupplysystemsthatallowedmass,low-costreplacementofinsuredgoodsforthelastseveraldecades.Itwillimpacttheindustryandtheindustry’scustomers. Whatdoesglobalizationmeanforyourinsurancecompany? Insurancecompaniesfundamentallystructuretheirbusinessaroundpredictablepatternsandmanageablerisks.Yet,withtheriseofnationalism,thechangeindemographics,theincreasingfrequencyandseverityofstorms,macroeconomicshifts(suchasinterestrates),andrapidtechnologychange,insurersfindthemselvesinunchartedterritorythatisdrivingrapidlyrising costs.Thestablefoundationsuponwhichinsurancecompanieshavebuilttheiroperationsandproductsforthelastthreedecadesareshiftingbeneaththeirfeet. Considerakeychallengepresentedbydeglobalization:thescarcityofreplacementgoods.Inthewake ofadisaster,thedemandforessentialitemslikerefrigeratorsormotorvehiclepartsskyrockets.However,constraintsinproduction,particularlyinregionslikeChina,coupledwithlogisticalhurdlessuchasshippingdisruptionscausedbygeopoliticaltensions,createaperfectstormofsupplyshortages. Asinsuredsclamorforswiftresolution,insurersfacethedauntingtaskofmeetingdemandthatoutpacesavailability.Familiesmaybeforcedtoseekrefugeinhotelswhileawaitingrepairstotheirdamagedhomes;theadditionalexpenseofrentalcarsduetotheinabilitytorepairtheirvehiclesaccumulates.Pricesforgoods inalocalizedareaspike,drivenbyclassicsupplyanddemandimbalances.Frustrationsmountandcostsescalatefortheinsurancecompaniesthatmustfootthebillforallofit. Compoundingthesechallengesaredivergingdemandforins