石油2024—分析和预测至2030年

Oil 2024 Analysisandforecastto2030 INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY TheIEAexaminesthefullspectrum ofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocatespoliciesthatwillenhancethereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits 31membercountries, 13associationcountriesandbeyond. Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea. Source:IEA. InternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:www.iea.org IEAmembercountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanada CzechRepublicDenmarkEstonia FinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuania LuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNewZealandNorwayPolandPortugal SlovakRepublicSpain SwedenSwitzerlandRepublicofTürkiyeUnitedKingdomUnitedStates TheEuropeanCommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEA IEAassociationcountries: ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingapore SouthAfricaThailandUkraine IEA.CCBY4.0. Abstract Energysupplysecurityremainsacentralpillaroftheglobalpolicyagendaasinternationaloiltradeflowsareupendedbywide-rangingsanctionsonRussiaandattacksontankerstransitingthecriticalRedSeashippingcorridor.Atthesametime,Asia’sgrowingstructuralshortfallincrudeandoilproductsandtheever-expandingsupplysurplusintheAtlanticBasinarecreatingnewtraderoutesintheglobaloilmarket.Thiseastwardshifttonon-OECDAsia,especiallyChinaandIndia,iscoincidingwithamultitudeofnewchallengesdrivingoilmarketactivityastheenergytransitiongatherspace.IncreaseduseofEVs,emergingcleanenergytechnologiesandmoreexpansiveefficiencypoliciesarecombiningtochartamuchslowergrowthtrajectoryforoildemand,plateauingtowardstheendofour2023-2030forecastperiod.Oil24,theIEA’smedium-termoutlook,exploresthesecriticaldevelopmentsandtheirimpactontheglobaloilmarket. Oil2024looksbeyondtheshort-termhorizoncoveredintheIEA’smonthlyOilMarketReporttoprovideacomprehensiveoverviewofevolvingoilsupplyanddemanddynamicsthroughto2030.Thereportprovidesdetailedanalysisandforecastsofoildemandfundamentalsacrossfuels,sectorsandregions.Italsooutlinesprojectedsupplyfromplannedupstreamanddownstreamprojectsaroundtheworld.Ourfindingsprovidecompellinginsightsonspareproductioncapacity,productsupplyandtradeflows,aswellastheimplicationsofsurgingoutputofnaturalgasliquids(NGLs)inthiseraofpetrochemical-drivendemandgrowth. IEA.CCBY4.0. Acknowledgements,contributorsandcredits ThispublicationwaspreparedbytheOilIndustryandMarketsDivision(OIMD)oftheDirectorateofEnergyMarketsandSecurity.TorilBosoni,headofOIMD,ledtheanalysisandeditingofthereport.Theprincipalauthorsare,inalphabeticalorder,YuyaAkizuki,AlexanderBressers,JoelCouse,CiaránHealy,PegMackey,DavidMartin,JacobMessing,JeremyMoorhouseandJennyThomson.RamizFarishtaandJulienCanuprovidedstatisticalsupportandessentialresearchassistance.KeisukeSadamori,directoroftheIEA’sDirectorateofEnergyMarketsandSecurity,providedexpertguidanceandadvice.DevenMooneesawmyprovidedessentialeditorialandpublishingsupport.DianeMunrocarriededitorialresponsibility.LorenzoSquillacedesignedthecover. ThereportbenefitedgreatlyfromvaluableinsightsandfeedbackprovidedbyseniormanagementandothercolleaguesfromacrosstheIEA,includingLauraCozzi,PaoloFrankl,TimGould,FarrahBoularas,LeonardoCollina,JérômeHilaire,Tae-YoonKim,ChristopheMcGlade,RebeccaMcKimm,ApostolosPetropoulos,CourtneyTurichandArturoRegalado. TheIEACommunicationsandDigitalOfficeprovidedproductionandlaunchsupport.ParticularthanksgotoJethroMullenandhisteam;CurtisBrainard,AstridDumond,MerveErdil,GraceGordon,JuliaHorowitz,RobStone,ClaraValloisandLucileWall. IEA.CCBY4.0. Tableofcontents Executivesummary6 Demand11 Globalsummary11 Fundamentals16 Roadfueldemandapproachingpeak20 Efficienciesslowjetandmarinefuelgrowth25 Oildisplacementinpowergeneration27 Petrochemicalsleadgrowth29 Demanddevelopmentsbyregion35 Supply47 Globalsummary47 Investmentandexploration51 OPEC+supply58 Non-OPEC+supply70 Refiningandtrade86 Globalsummary86 Refiningcapacity97 Regionaldevelopments101 Productbalancesandtrade117 NaturalGasLiquids124 Globalsummary124 Ethanemarkets127 LPGmarkets129 C5+fromfractionation131 Biofuels132 Governmentpoliciessupportbiofuelsgrowth132 Ethanolfeedstockdemandremainssteady133 Tables135 Abbreviationsandacronyms148 Unitsofmeasure149 Listofboxes Non-OECDpricecontrolslimitpass-throughofmarketpricestoretail19 ChinesecapacityandUSNGLsreshapingglobalmarkets34 Chineserefinedproductreportingmayoverstatefuelgrowth45 Shalepricesensitivityscenarios74 Indianrefineriessetforcontinuedgrowth114 IEA.CCBY4.0. Executivesummary Globaloilmarketsnavigateachallenginglandscape Globaloilmarketswillneedtotraversemyriadchallengesinthemedium-termasstructuralshiftsreshapeoildemandandtradeflows,whilerisingoilsuppliescouldpotentiallyweighonpricesthroughtheendofthedecade. Divergentregionaleconomictrajectoriesandtheacceleratingdeploymentofcleanand