2024年可再生能源报告：分析与预测至2030年

Analysis and forecast to 2030 INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY The IEA examines thefull spectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement andmuch more. Throughits work, the IEAadvocates policies thatwill enhance thereliability, affordabilityand sustainability ofenergy in its31member countries,13associationcountries and beyond. IEA associationcountries: IEA membercountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine This publication and anymap included herein arewithout prejudice to thestatus of or sovereignty overany territory, to thedelimitation of internationalfrontiers and boundaries andto the name of any territory,city or area. The EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA Revised version, October2024Information notice found at:www.iea.org/corrections Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Abstract This edition of the IEA’s annual Renewables market report provides forecasts forthe deployment of renewable energy technologies in electricity, transport and heatto 2030, while also exploring key challenges facing the industry and identifyingbarriers that are preventing faster growth. At the COP28 UN Climate Change Conference in December, governments agreedto work together to triple the world’s installed renewable energy capacity by 2030.Renewables 2024offers a comprehensive country-level analysis on trackingprogress towards the global tripling target based on current policies and marketdevelopments. Additionally, it assesses the challenges to faster expansion. For the first time, the report features a special chapter on renewable fuels,including bioenergy, biogases, hydrogen, and e-fuels. It forecasts their role inglobal energy demand by 2030 and their potential for decarbonising the industry,building, and transport sectors. In addition to its detailed market analysis and forecasts, the report also examineskey developments for the sector, including policy trends driving deployment, solarPV and wind manufacturing, the costs of renewable technologies, electrolyser andrenewable capacity for hydrogen production, prospects for renewable energycompanies, and system integration of renewables, along with grid connectionqueues. Acknowledgements, contributorsand credits This study was prepared by the Renewable Energy Division in the Directorate ofEnergy Markets and Security. It was designed and directed by Heymi Bahar,Senior Analyst. The report benefited from analysis, drafting and input from multiple colleagues.The lead authors of the report were Yasmina Abdelilah, Ana Alcalde Báscones,Vasilios Anatolitis, Heymi Bahar, Piotr Bojek, François Briens, Trevor Criswell,Jeremy Moorhouse, Kartik Veerakumar, and Laura Mari Martinez, who was alsoresponsible for data management. PaoloFrankl,Head of the Renewable Energy Division,provided strategicguidance and input to this work. Valuable comments, feedback and guidance wereprovided by other senior management and numerous other colleagues within theIEA, in particular, Keisuke Sadamori, Laura Cozzi, Tim Gould, Timur Gül, BrianMotherway, Dan Dorner, Toril Bosoni, Dennis Hessling and Pablo Hevia-Koch. Other IEA colleagues who have made important contributions to this work include: Jose Bermudez Menendez, Stéphanie Bouckaert, Eren Cam, Elizabeth Connelly,Chiara Delmastro, Araceli Fernandez Pales, Ciarán Healy, Martin Kueppers, AkosLosz, Rafael Martinez Gordon, Gergely Molnar, Francesco Pavan, ApostolosPetropoulos, Isaac Portugal, Uwe Remme, Thomas Spencer, Brent Wanner,Biqing Yang and Peter Zeniewski. Timely data from the IEA Energy Data Centre were fundamental to the report, withparticularassistance provided by Luca Lorenzoni,Taylor Morrison,NickJohnstone and Roberta Quadrelli. This work benefited from extensive review and comments from the IEA StandingGroupon Long-Term Co-operation,IEA Renewable Energy Working Party,members of the Renewable Industry Advisory Board (RIAB) and experts from IEApartner countries and other international institutions. The work also benefited fromfeedback by the IEA Committee on Energy Research and Technology, IEATechnology Collaboration Programmes (IEA TCPs). Many experts from outside of the IEA provided valuable input, commented andreviewed this report. They include: Countries Canada (Natural Resources Canada), China (Energy Research Institute – ERI),Denmark (Ministry of Climate, Energy and Utilities), European Union (EuropeanCommission – DG Energy, DG Research and Innovation), Finland (Ministry ofEconomic Affairs and Employment), France (Ministry of Ecological Tra