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安哥拉城市的贫困和脆弱性（英）

公用事业2024-05-01世界银行丁***

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总结：《安哥拉城市贫困与脆弱性》研究报告概览

报告要点：

安哥拉的城市贫困问题：尽管农村地区的贫困率较高，但仍有三分之一的安哥拉贫困人口及40%面临陷入贫困风险的人口居住在城市。
政策关注点：安哥拉的主要减贫策略——“Kwenda”现金转移计划，主要针对农村地区，忽略了城市居民的需求。
高城市化率与挑战：安哥拉作为非洲最城市化的国家之一，城市化率高达68%，这凸显了城市贫困和脆弱性问题的紧迫性。
研究目标：本报告旨在深入探讨安哥拉城市贫困群体的特点，并提出针对性的政策切入点，以应对城市贫困和脆弱性问题。

主要发现：

人口特征：城市贫困家庭通常规模较大，包含较多依赖儿童（15岁以下）。
就业市场：城市贫困家庭往往难以获得稳定就业机会，加剧了收入不稳定性。
食物安全与冲击：食品价格波动和燃料补贴改革等冲击对城市居民造成了显著影响，导致了更高的食物不安全性。
结论与建议：鉴于城市化趋势和城市贫困的加剧，建立全面的社会保护系统对于识别并支持城市贫困和脆弱群体至关重要。该系统应涵盖城乡所有贫困和脆弱人群，以有效减轻贫困和抵御经济冲击。

方法论：

数据来源：报告基于2018-2019年由安哥拉国家统计局（INE）收集的“安哥拉家庭开支、收入与就业调查”（IDREA）微数据进行分析。
贫困度量：采用基于家庭支出和基本需求成本法计算的贫困线，评估了2018年安哥拉的贫困状况。
脆弱性评估：通过识别可能使家庭消费在未来两年内低于贫困线的风险，定义了“脆弱”群体。

结论与展望：

高度城市化背景下，城市贫困和脆弱性成为亟待解决的问题。
安哥拉需要构建包容性的社会保护体系，以确保城乡贫困和脆弱群体得到全面支持。
研究提供了政策制定者在识别和干预城市贫困方面的关键见解，强调了跨区域合作的重要性。

建议行动：

政府和国际组织应增加对城市贫困问题的关注和资源投入。
加强社会保障体系，确保覆盖所有贫困和脆弱群体。
提升城市就业机会，特别是为低收入家庭提供更多稳定就业。
实施有效的社会保护措施，如提高最低工资标准、提供就业培训和创业支持等。

通过这些分析和建议，旨在促进安哥拉乃至其他面临类似挑战的国家，实现更加公平、可持续的城市发展和社会进步。

TY|POVERTY|POVERTYPOVERTY|POVERTY|POVERTY|POVERTY|POVERTY| POVERTY| PPOubVliEcRDTisYclosurePOAVutEhRoTrizYed| PPOubVliEcRDTisYclosure| AuthorPizOedVERTY Publi|cDiscloPsuOrVeEARuTthYorized|PPOuVbEliRcTDYisclosu|reAuthoPrOizVedERTY RTY|POVERTY|POVERTYPOVERTY|POVERTY|POVERTY|POVERTY PO| VERPOTVYERTY| POVERTYANDVULNERABILITYINURBANANGOLA May2024 LilianaSousaandGiuliaZane EquitableGrowth,Finance&InstitutionsNote POVERTY|POVERTYPOVERTY|POVERTY|POVERTY|POVERTY|POVERTY|POVERTY OVERTY | POVERTY | POVERTY | POVERTY | POVERTY | POVERTY | POVERTY | POVER- POVERTYANDVULNERABILITYINURBANANGOLA May2024 LilianaSousaandGiuliaZane ©[2024]InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNW WashingtonDC20433 Telephone:202-473-1000Internet:www.worldbank.org ThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent. TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracy,completeness,orcurrencyofthedataincludedinthisworkanddoesnotassumeresponsibilityforanyerrors,omissions,ordiscrepanciesin theinformation,orliabilitywithrespecttotheuseoforfailuretousetheinformation,methods,processes,orconclusionssetforth.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries. NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconstruedorconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofTheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved. RightsandPermissions Thematerialinthisworkissubjecttocopyright.BecauseTheWorldBankencouragesdisseminationofitsknowledge,thisworkmaybereproduced,inwholeorinpart,fornoncommercialpurposesaslongasfullattributiontothisworkisgiven. Anyqueriesonrightsandlicenses,includingsubsidiaryrights,shouldbeaddressedto WorldBankPublications,TheWorldBankGroup,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;fax:202-522-2625;e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. Coverphoto:LilianaSousa TABLE OFCONTENTS Acknowledgements6ExecutiveSummary8Introduction9 DemographicandHousingCharacteristicsoftheUrbanPoor11 UrbanPovertyandtheJobMarket13 FoodInsecurityandShocks17 Conclusions19 References21 6 POVERTYANDVULNERABILITYINURBANANGOLA EquitableGrowth,Finance&InstitutionsNote Acknowledgements ThisnotewaspreparedbyLilianaSousaandGiuliaZane.JulianGoetzprovidedexcellentresearchassistance.TheauthorsaregratefulfortheinputsandinsightsofBobanPaulandAlejandraCampero.OverallguidancewasprovidedbyAlbertZeufack,JuanCarlosAlvarez,andPierellaPaci. 7 POVERTYANDVULNERABILITYINURBANAFRICA EquitableGrowth,Finance&InstitutionsNote 8 POVERTYANDVULNERABILITYINURBANANGOLA EquitableGrowth,Finance&InstitutionsNote EXECUTIVESUMMARY ThoughruralAngolahashigherratesofpoverty,athirdofAngolanslivinginpovertyand40percentofthosevulnerabletofallingintopovertyareinurbanareas.Yet,Angola’spovertyalleviationstrategy–particularlyitsKwendacashtransferprogramintroducedin2020–targetsonlyruralareas.Highurbanizationratesandrecentshocksthatdisproportionatelyaffecturbandwellers,suchasfoodpricehikesandfuelsubsidyreform,meanthattacklingurbanpovertyandvulnerabilityisbecomingincreasinglyurgentinAngola.ThisnoteprovidesinsightsintothecharacteristicsoftheurbanpoorinAngolaandidentifiespolicyentrypointsrelevantfortargetingandtacklingpovertyandvulnerabilityinurbanAngola. POVERTYANDVULNERABILITYINURBANAFRICA9 EquitableGrowth,Finance&InstitutionsNote INTRODUCTION OneinthreeAngolanslivinginpoverty,and40percentofthoseatriskoffallingintopoverty,liveinurbanareas(Figure1).Themostrecentsurvey-basedpovertyestimatesshowthatathirdofAngolanswerelivinginpovertyin2018(Box1).Povertyratesaresignificantlyhigherinruralareas –55percentcomparedto18percentinurbanareas.Yet,AngolaisoneofSub-SaharanAfrica’s mosturbanizedcountrieswithabout68percentofitspopulationlivinginurbanareas.Hence,thedisparityinpovertyrateshidesthefactthatathirdofAngola’spoor(3.2millionpeople)werelivinginurbanareas(comparedto6.3millioninruralareas).Another2.5millionpeopleinurbanareas(and3.3millioninruralareas)werevulnerable–thatis,theylivedabovethepovertyline,buthadahighriskof POVERTYANDVULNERABILITYINURBANANGOLA EquitableGrowth,Finance&InstitutionsNote fallingbelowitintheeventofashock.Specifically,householdswereconsidered“vulnerable”iftheirpredictedlevelofconsumptioninthetwoyears followingdatacollectionhasatleasta50percentprobabilityoffallingbelowthepovertylineatleastonceasaresultofanegativeshock.1 10 Figure1:PovertyandVulnerabilityin2018,millionsofpeople 9.6 6.3 3.3 5.7 3.2 2.5 UrbanRural PoorVulnerabilitytofallingintopoverty Source:WorldBankcalculationsbasedonIDREA2018/19andWorldBank(2020). Note:Thisfigureisproducedbydividingthesampleintothreecategories:poor,vulnerable,andnon-poor(notshowninthefigure).Vulnerableindicatesthatthehousehold’sconsumptionisabovethepovertylinebutthatthehouseholdhasatleasta50percentprobabilityoffal

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