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Travel Market Report – Q2 Update

信息技术2024-06-21BCD Travel匡***

AI智能总结

Summary of the Travel Market Report

Key Highlights:

Global Airline Industry Outlook: The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects airline industry revenue to reach $996 billion in 2024, marking a significant recovery from the impacts of the pandemic. Revenue is expected to increase by over 15% to $744 billion, with global air travel numbers reaching almost 5 billion passengers, 9% higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
Region-Specific Projections:
- Africa: Facing challenges due to high costs and geopolitical issues, airlines are projected to generate only 3-5% of the losses accumulated during the pandemic.
- Asia Pacific: Recovery is expected to be stronger, with a bigger boost to growth in 2024 from pent-up demand for international travel.
- Europe: Strong travel demand is expected, but supply chain issues and potential labor disputes pose challenges.
- Latin America: Some airlines face significant financial difficulties due to economic and social turmoil.
- Middle East: Continued strong financial performance is anticipated, supported by significant traffic growth and a robust regional economy.
- North America: Solid consumer spending and robust air travel demand are expected to continue supporting airline finances, though labor shortages may impact smaller regional markets.
Airlines Performance Comparison:
- American Airlines: Lowered its operating margin expectations for Q2 2024 due to weaker-than-expected bookings and a domestic pricing environment affected by supply and demand imbalances. Its financial performance lags behind competitors Delta Air Lines and United Airlines, with higher unit costs and lower revenue performance.
Bilateral Partnerships and Codeshares:
- New or expanded codeshare arrangements are becoming more common among airlines. For instance, Indian carrier IndiGo is implementing codeshares with multiple airlines, hinting at potential future membership in Oneworld, alongside its current affiliations with other major airline alliances.

Detailed Analysis:

Global Airline Industry Outlook: The IATA report forecasts a robust recovery for the global airline industry, with key drivers including increased traffic and passenger numbers. The industry is set for its highest nominal revenue in history, with a significant rise in air travel numbers expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels.
Regional Prospects: The outlook varies significantly across regions. Africa faces unique challenges, with airlines expected to only partially offset pandemic-related losses. In contrast, Europe and North America are expected to see strong demand, albeit with supply chain issues and labor disputes posing challenges. Asia Pacific is anticipated to benefit from a surge in pent-up demand, while Latin America struggles with financial difficulties due to economic and social turmoil. The Middle East, benefiting from robust regional economies and traffic growth, offers promising prospects for airlines.
Airlines Performance Comparison: American Airlines, after adjusting its outlook for Q2 2024, experiences a decline in operating margins, attributed partly to changes in its sales and distribution strategy and a challenging domestic pricing environment. Compared to its rivals, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines, American has managed to reduce unit selling costs more effectively but has struggled with revenue performance, resulting in lower operating margins.
Bilateral Partnerships and Codeshares: These strategic alliances allow airlines to extend their network reach without direct service to certain destinations, often due to resource constraints or insufficient demand. Examples include Air Baltic's partnership with Bulgaria Air and Riyadh Air's agreements with Air China and Singapore Airlines, highlighting the role of codeshares in expanding airline networks and potentially paving the way for full alliance membership.

REPORT TRAVELMARKETREPORT ProducedbyResearch&Intelligence June2024 TravelMarketReport WelcometothelatesteditionoftheTravelMarketReport,broughttoyouby BCDTravel’sResearch&Intelligenceteam. Westartthisquarter’sTravelMarketReportwitharoundupofthelatestglobalairlineindustryoutlookfromtheInternationalAirTransportAssociation(IATA).Thisincludesasummaryofwhattoexpectinsixregions. AmericanAirlineshasrecentlyadjusteditsoutlookforthesecondquarterof2024.Weexplorehowitsfinancialperformanceoverthelast12monthshascomparedtoitsrivalsDeltaAirLinesandUnitedAirlines. Stickingwithairlines,moreappeartobestrikingbilateralpartnerships,includingneworexpandedcodesharearrangements.Guidedbyrecentexamples,wetrytounderstandwhatfactorsmaybedrivingthis. Turningtohotels,weuseanindexofaveragedailyratestounderstandhowroomratesaretrendingaroundtheworld. Finally,aspartofourprogramofregularlysurveyingbothtravelmanagers/buyersandbusinesstravelers,we’vetakentheopportunitytogetbothgroups’viewsontravelpolicy.Youcanlearnaboutsomeofthekeyfindings,beforedelvingintothedetailedreports,oncetheyarebothpublished. TheResearch&Intelligenceteam MikeEggleton Director,Research&Intelligence NataliaTretyakevich SeniorManager,Research&Intelligence MelinaSibaja TravelInsightsAnalyst Globalairlineindustryoutlook Outlookfor2024improves TheInternationalAirTransportAssociation(IATA)expectsairlineindustryrevenuetoreach$996billionin2024,upalmost10%year-over-year(YoY)andreachingthehighestnominalvalueinitshistory.Theprimarydriverofgrowthwillbeanincreaseintraffic,withglobalairlinepassengerrevenuesforecastedtoincreasebymorethan15%to$744billion. Globalairtravelshouldfinallyfullyrecoverin2024,withpassengersexpectedtonumberalmost5billion.Whileup10.4%YoYfrom4.45billion,thefigurewillalsobe9%higherthanin2019.Traffic(revenuepassengerkilometers-RPKs)shouldgrowataslightlyhigherpaceof11.6%,aspeopleincreasinglytakelongertrips.Thiswillhelpsupporta4.3%riseinaverageticketprices(ATPs)globally,althoughthiswillbemuchlowerthan2023’s15%increase. Sinceitspreviousforecast(December2023),IATAhasraisedbyalmostone-fifthbothitsglobalairlinenetprofitestimatefor2023anditsforecastfor2024.It’salsoincreasedfrom10.3%to Regionalprospectsfor2024 Africa–whiledemandforairAsiaPacific–2023’sslowerthantravelexists,it’sbeingheldbackhopedforreboundmeansairlinesbyhighcosts,whilegeopoliticalmayenjoyabiggerboosttoissueswillweighonairlineprofits.growthin2024fromthedelayed releaseofpent-updemandfor Europe–traveldemandwillinternationaltravel.remainstrong,butsupplychain issuesandtheriskoflaborLatinAmerica–someairlinesfacedisputesremainchallengestoconsiderablefinancialdifficulty, Europeanairlinefinances.reflectingtheregion’seconomic andsocialturmoil.MarketsinMiddleEast–significanttrafficCentralAmericawillbekeytogrowthsupportedastrongdrivinggrowth. financialperformanceamongthe region’sairlinesin2023.GulfhubNorthAmerica–solidconsumeroperationslocatedinanspendingandrobustairtraveleconomicallybuoyantregionofferdemandareexpectedtocontinueencouragingprospectsforairlinesunderpinningairlinefinances. in2024.Laborshortagesmayimpactsmallerregionalmarkets. 11.3%thepaceatwhichitexpectsprofitstogrowin2024. Between2020and2022,theworld’sairlineshadaccumulatedalmost$182billioninnetlosses;they’rescheduledtodelivertotalprofitsof$58billionforthe2023-2024period.It’scleartheystillhavealongwaytogotofullyoffsetthedamagedonebythepandemictotheirbottomlines.Butairlinesinsomeregionsaremakingbetterprogressthanotherselsewhere. In2024,airlinesinAfrica,AsiaPacificandLatinAmericamayonlyhavegeneratedsufficientprofitstooffset3-5%oftotallossesbuiltupduringthepandemic.EuropeanandMiddleEasterncarriersarelikelytohavemademuchmoreprogress,eatinginto40-50%oftheirpandemiclosses.Butit’sNorthAmericanairlinesthatareleadingthefinancialrecovery.Thisyear,IATAexpectsthemtohavebuiltupenoughprofitstomorethancovertotalpandemiclosses,puttingtheminasolidpositiongoingforward. Globalairlinenetincome US$billion Airlineprofitsasapercentageof pandemic-accumulatedlosses 40 -10 -60 -110 -160 20192020202120222023e2024f 120% 100% 80% 102.4% 60% 40% 20% 0% 53.9% 41.4% 5.4% 3.9% 3.5% AfricaAsiaEuropeLatinMiddleNorthPacificAmericaEastAmerica Source:IATA,June2024 U.S.airlineperformance AmericanAirlines’performancelagsitsrivals Weaker-than-expectedbookingspromptedAmericanAirlinestoloweritsoperatingmarginexpectationsforthesecondquarterof2024byone-percentagepointtoan8.5-10.5%range.Thisisabigreductiononlastyear’ssecondquarter,whentheairlineposteda15.4%margin.Inpart,American’sCEO,RobertIsom,blamedthedowngradeonsomeofthechangestheairlinehadmadeoverthelastyeartoitssalesanddistributionstrategy.Healsocitedaweaker-than-expecteddomesticpricingenvironmentcausedbyasupplyanddemandimbalance. Giventhisannouncement,it’sworthcomparingAmericanAirlines’financialperformanceoverthelastfourreportedquarterstothatofitsrivalsDeltaAirLinesandUnitedAirlines. ThebenefitsofAmerican’schangeddistributionstrategyareclear.Ithasreportedlowerunitsellingcostsyear-over-year(YoY)ineachofthelastfourquarters;somethingi

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