Fixed Income Daily Market Update

FixedIncomeCreditCommentary 16Jul2024 GlennKo,CFA高志和 (852)36576235 glennko@cmbi.com.hk CyrenaNg,CPA吳蒨瑩 (852)39000801 cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk JerryWang王世超 (852)37618919 jerrywang@cmbi.com.hk CMBIFixedIncome fis@cmbi.com.hk 1 CMBICreditCommentary FixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报 TheAssetAsianG3BondBenchmarkReview2023 Wehopeyoufoundourcommentariesandideashelpful.Weseektoelevateoureffortsandvalue-addfurtherinthecomingyear.WehighlyappreciateyoursupporttousinSell-SideAnalystsofthepollsof“TheAssetAsianG3BondBenchmarkReview2024”.Thankyouforyoursupport! NewissueNACF’27andNACF’29tightened9bpsand1bpsthismorning.FlowsonAsianIGspacewerelightandskewedtobetterselling.DAESEC/SKONKRwereheavy. CCAMCL:FVofnew3/5.5-yrUSDbondstobeT+120-125bps/T+140-145bps.CCAMCL4.4PERPdown0.1pt,otherCCAMCLsandGRWALLs/HRINTHswereunchangedthismorning.Seebelow. ChinaEconomy-Chinaneedsdemand-sidestimulus.CMBIexpectthePBOCmaymildlycutRRRby25bpsandLPRsby15bpsin2H24.SeebelowforcommentsfromCMBIeconomicresearch. Tradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点 Yesterday,AsiaIGspacewasquietwithJPoutforholiday.NACFpricedaUSD300mn3-yrfloatingratebondandaUSD300mn5-yrbondatSOFR+80,andT+68,respectively.MATSEL’34widened2bps.TherecentissuessuchasNOMURAs/SWIREs/LGENSOs/PINGINswereunchangedto3bpswider.ChineseIGswereskewedtobetterselling.ThelongendofSINOPEs/BABAs/TENCNTsclosed0.5-1.2ptslower(unchangedto6bpswider).XIAOMI30-31swidened1-2bps.InChineseAMCs,thefrontendofHRINTHsweretradedinmixedtwo-wayflows.HRINTH‘25tightened3bps.HRINTH’27widened1bp.CHIYBK’32wasup0.5pt.InAT1s,ICBCAS3.2Perp/BBLTB5Perp/KTBTB4.4Perpwereup0.1pt.INTNED8Perp/STANLN4.3Perpwere0.2-0.3pthigher.InHK,NWDEVLPerps/27-31swere0.3-0.8pthigher.CKINF4.2Perpwas0.8pthigher.HYSAN/LIFUNGPerpswereup0.4-0.5pt.LIHHK25/Perpwereup0.3-0.5pt.Chinesepropertieswerefirm.PINGRE’25moved0.9pthigher.SHUION24-26sandVNKRLE/POLHON25swere0.5-0.7pthigher.FUTLANs/FTLNHDswereup0.4-0.5pt.GEMDAL‘24/COGO’26/CHJMAO‘29wereup0.3pt.CHIOLIs wereunchangedto0.4ptlower.Outsideproperties,WESCHI‘26wasup0.5pt.ANTOIL’25wasup0.3pt.EHICAR’27was0.5ptlower.InMacaugaming,SANLTD’29/STCITY’28wereup0.3-0.4pt.InIndonesia,GARUDA’31was1.8ptshigher.InIndia,RILINswere0.6-1.3ptslower. LGFVswerestable.CONSONpricedaUSD150mn3-yrbondatpartoyield6.1%.Amongthehigh-yieldingLGFVs,CPDEV’26andZHHFGR‘25/Perpwere0.1-0.2pthigher.KMRLGP’25was0.4pthigher.KNMIDI’25wasup 0.1pt.ZHJSEA/JNUCGC26swereup0.3pt.SXUCI‘26/CDCOMM’24were PLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE down0.1pt.InSOEperps,CHPWCN4.25Perpwas0.4pthigher.CHSCOI3.4Perp/CCBINT3.329Perpwereup0.1pt.Inthehighbetanames,HUANEN’29was1.4ptshigher.TIANFS’26wasup0.1pt.ZHONAN’26was0.1pthigher. LastTradingDay’sTopMovers TopPerformers Price Change TopUnderperformers Price Change GARUDA61/212/28/31 60.7 1.8 CHGRID405/04/47 86.2 -1.3 HUANEN312/10/29 92.1 1.4 TAISEM31/810/25/41 79.0 -1.3 PINGRE31/406/23/25 94.1 0.9 RILIN47/802/10/45 91.0 -1.3 NWDEVL33/401/14/31 71.8 0.8 TAISEM43/807/22/27 98.9 -1.3 CKINF4.2PERP 70.9 0.8 SINOPE3.6808/08/49 80.1 -1.2 MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P(+0.28%),Dow(+0.53%)andNasdaq(+0.40%)werefirmonMonday.USTyieldsralliedhigheronFriday,2/5/10/30yieldreached4.44%/4.13%/4.23%/4.46%. Deskanalystcomments分析员市场观点 CCAMCL:FVofnew3/5.5-yrUSDbondstobeT+120-125bps/T+140-145bps WeconsidertheFVofCindaproposed3/5.5-yrnewissueCCAMCL’27/30tobeT+120-125bps(YTMof5.43%-5.48%)andT+140-145bps(YTMof5.53%-5.58%),comparedtoIPTofT3+165bps(YTMof5.88%)andT5+195bps(YTMof6.08%),takingcuesfromthecreditspreadof121bpsand140bpsforCCAMCL5.7502/07/27andCCAMCL5.7505/28/29,respectively.Theproposednew3/5.5-yrUSDbonds(toberatedA-byFitch)willbeissuedundertheMTNprogramofUSD5bnwhichbecameeffectiveon20May’24.ThebondswillbeissuedbyChinaCinda(2020)IManagementLimitedandguaranteedbyChinaCinda(HK).TheissuerisaSPV100%ownedbyChinaCinda(HK)whichistheoffshorewholly-ownedsubsidiaryofChinaCindaAMC. CCAMCL5.7502/07/27CCAMCL5.7505/28/29 YTM5.445.52 T-Spread121140 Maturity7Feb'2728May'29 Rating(M/S/F)-/BBB+/--/BBB+/A- Source:Bloomberg. InAMCsector,HRINTHsremaintobeourtoppicksdespiterecentdowngradegiventhemorebalancedriskandreturnprofile.RecalledthatGRWALLannouncedthecallofitsperpson2Jul’24.SeeourcommentsonHRINTHandGRWALL.Forlowerbetaplayinthesector,welikeCCAMCL4.4Perp. (USDmn) price (ask,%) date (bps) CCAMCL4.4Perp XS23972545791,700 96.8 5.9 11/03/26 5yrUST+3.232%- B1/-/- GRWALL3.95Perp XS2023803872400 100.0 10.8 07/31/24 5yrUST+7.145%500 -/-/BB+ HRINTH4.25Perp XS2235973943250 97.2 6.7 09/30/25 5yrUST+6.979%300 -/-/BB- HRINTH4.7504/27/27 XS1596795358850 95.8 6.4 - -- Ba2/-/BBB HRINTH4.2511/07/27 XS17115503731,100 93.6 6.4 - -- Ba2/-/BBB HRINTH4.505/29/29 XS2001732283544 92.1 6.4 - -- Ba2/-/BBB Source:Bloomberg. SecurityNameISINAmto/s Ask YTM/YTC Firstcall CouponresetStep-up Rating(M/S/F) ChinaEconomy-Chinaneedsdemand-sidestimulus Chinaeconomyhassloweddownas2QGDPgrowthfellshortofexpectationsat4.7%.DeflationpressurepersistedasGDPdeflatorcontinuedtodecline.Economicgrowthwasuneven,withfixedinvestmentandindustrialoutputstayingelevatedwithare