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选定的碳定价政策对阿拉伯埃及共和国的经济和分配影响（英）

基础化工2024-06-01世界银行向***

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摘要

《阿拉伯共和国埃及的碳定价政策经济与分配影响研究》由戈文达·蒂米辛纳和萨缪尔·塞比比撰写，旨在探讨埃及实施特定碳定价政策对经济、社会和环境的影响。通过构建可计算一般均衡模型，分析了取消化石燃料补贴和引入碳税（每吨二氧化碳600埃镑）在不同收入回收方案下的经济、分布和气候缓解效果。

主要发现：

减排潜力：取消现有石油补贴并引入碳税，最多可减少11%的国家二氧化碳排放量，同时对经济影响相对较小。
收入分配：通过现金转移将节省的补贴和碳税收入退还给家庭时，较贫穷家庭的收入相对增加，确保了收入分配的进展性。
商品价格与行业产出：收入回收方案的不同不仅影响商品价格和部门产出的幅度，方向也各不相同。

关键点：

经济影响：碳定价政策能够有效降低温室气体排放，同时对经济增长的影响有限。
分配影响：收入分配方案通过现金转移向低收入家庭倾斜，促进社会公平。
政策选择：不同收入回收方案对经济各部门产生不同影响，需要综合考虑以实现最优化政策效果。

该研究为理解碳定价政策对发展中国家如埃及的影响提供了重要见解，并为全球气候变化应对策略提供了参考。通过开放获取其研究成果，世界银行致力于促进全球发展政策讨论。

主体内容

《阿拉伯共和国埃及的碳定价政策经济与分配影响研究》关注了埃及在应对气候变化方面的承诺及其面临的挑战。文章指出，作为全球第24大二氧化碳排放国，埃及正努力减少其国家温室气体排放量的三分之一，以响应巴黎气候协定的目标。文章强调了碳定价工具，如取消化石燃料补贴和引入碳税的重要性。

分析方法：

研究团队开发了一个可计算一般均衡模型来评估这些政策对埃及经济、社会和环境的影响。模型考虑了四种不同的收入回收方案：公共债务减少、等额或进步性的现金转移给家庭以及削减企业所得税。

结果与发现：

减排潜力：通过实施上述政策组合，模型预测最多可减少11%的国家二氧化碳排放量，而对经济的整体影响相对温和。
收入分配：在将节省下来的补贴和碳税收入通过现金转移退还给家庭的情况下，研究发现较贫困家庭的收入相对于富裕家庭有所提高，表明收入分配方案具有进步性。
影响多样性：不同收入回收方案不仅改变了商品价格和部门产出的幅度，而且方向也因方案而异，体现了政策实施的复杂性和多样性影响。

结论：

研究揭示了碳定价政策在经济、社会和环境层面的潜在影响，特别是在考虑收入分配和经济效率的同时，强调了政策设计的重要性。通过这样的研究，可以为埃及和其他面临类似挑战的发展中国家提供决策支持，促进更加可持续的经济发展路径。

PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10791 EconomicandDistributionalImpactsofSelectedCarbonPricingPoliciesfortheArabRepublicofEgypt GovindaR.TimilsinaSamuelSebsibie DevelopmentEconomicsDevelopmentResearchGroupJune2024 PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10791 Abstract TheArabRepublicofEgyptisthe24thlargestcarbondiox-ideemitterfromfossilfuelcombustionintheworldandthethirdlargestemitterintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricaregionaftertheIslamicRepublicofIranandSaudiArabia.Egypthassetatargetofreducingone-thirdofitsnationalgreenhousegasemissionsundertheParisClimateAgree-ment.Pricinginstruments,suchastheremovalofexistingfossilfuelsubsidiesandtheintroductionofacarbontax,helpthecountrytoachieveitsemissionreductiontargets.However,theeconomic,social,andenvironmentalimpactsofsuchpoliciesareunknown.Thisstudydevelopsacom-putablegeneralequilibriummodelforEgypttoinvestigatetheeconomic,distributional,andclimatechangemitiga-tioneffectsoffossilfuelsubsidyremovalandintroductionofacarbontaxunderalternativeschemestorecyclethe savedsubsidiesandcarbontaxrevenues.Fourrevenuerecy-clingschemesareconsidered:publicdebtreduction,equalorprogressivecashtransferstohouseholds,andcuttingcorporateincometaxes.ThenumericalresultsindicatethatremovingexistingpetroleumsubsidiesandintroducingofacarbontaxofLE600pertonofcarbondioxidewouldreducenationalcarbondioxideemissionsbyupto11per-centwithoutsignificantlyaffectingtheeconomy.Whenthesavedsubsidiesandcarbontaxrevenuesaregivenbacktohouseholdsthroughcashtransfers,theincomeofpoorerhouseholdswouldriserelativetothatofricherhouseholds,ensuringthatthisrevenuerecyclingschemeisprogressive.Thepoliciesaffectcommoditypricesandsectoraloutputnotonlyindifferentmagnitudes,butalsoindifferentdirec-tionsacrosstherevenuerecyclingschemes. ThispaperisaproductoftheDevelopmentResearchGroup,DevelopmentEconomics.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebathttp://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Theauthorsmaybecontactedatgtimilsina@worldbank.org. ThePolicyResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogresstoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutdevelopmentissues.Anobjectiveoftheseriesistogetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeam EconomicandDistributionalImpactsofSelectedCarbonPricingPoliciesfortheArabRepublicofEgypt GovindaR.TimilsinaandSamuelSebsibie1 KeyWords:Climatechange,Carbonpricing,Fossilfuelsubsidy,Carbontax,Generalequilibriummodel,Distributionalimpacts,Egypt JELClassification:C68,Q43 1GovindaTimilsina(gtimilsina@worldbank.org)isaSeniorEconomistattheDevelopmentResearchGroup,WorldBank.SamuelKebede(ssebsibie@gmail.com)wasaShort-termConsultanttotheWorldBankduringtheimplementationthisstudy. EconomicandDistributionalImpactsofSelectedCarbonPricingPoliciesfortheArabRepublicofEgypt 1.Introduction TheArabRepublicofEgyptisthe24thlargestCO2emitterfromfossilfuelcombustionintheworldandthethirdlargestemitterintheMENAregionaftertheIslamicRepublicofIran(7thlargest)andSaudiArabia(11thlargest)(WorldBank,2022a).Totalgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsin2019were1.6timesashighasin1990;andpercapitaemissionsincreasedby47%duringover1990–2019(WorldBank,2022b).Thecountryishighlyvulnerabletoclimatechangeduetoincreasedwaterscarcity,lossofbiodiversityandfoodinsecurity(WorldBank,2022).ConsideringthegrowthofGHGemissions,itsvulnerabilitytoclimatechange,2andrealizingtheglobalresponsibilitytoaddressclimatechange,Egypthasactivelyparticipatedininternationaleffortstocombatclimatechange.EgyptratifiedtheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)in1994.UndertheParisClimateAgreement,Egypthassetatargetofreducingone-third(33%)ofitsemissionsinthebaselinein2030(GovernmentofEgypt,2022).AsindicatedinitsNationallyDeterminedContribution(NDC),theemissionmitigationtargetwillbeachievedthroughvariousmeasures,suchasremovingfossilfuelsubsidies,promotingrenewableenergy,improvingenergyefficiency,andtransitioningtolow-carbontransportation.Egypt’scommitmenttocontributetoglobaleffortstoaddressclimatechangeisalsoreflectedinitshostingofthe27thConferenceoftheParties(COP)totheUNFCCCinNovember2022.DespiteEgypt’stargetofreducing33%ofitsGHGemissionsasspecifiedinitsNDC,anacuteknowledgegapexistsonhowmeetingtheNDCtargetwillaffecttheoveralleconomyandhowtheseimpactswillbedistributedacrosshouseholds. Carbonpricinginstruments,suchasacarbontax,arethemainpricinginstruments consideredbymanycountriestoreducetheirGHGemissionsbecausetheyareeconomically 2AccordingtotheFourthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPa

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