生猪（周报）：二育领涨，宏观助力，但需警惕下游负反馈

20240519 Z0012647 F03099649 偏空偏空偏空中性 18325 235 1.30% 14900 100 0.68% 18255 185 1.02% 15.37 0.34 2.25% 15.2 0.45 3.05% 15.25 0.85 5.78% 15.05 0.27 1.82% 15.85 0.27 1.73% 19.73 1.04 5.56% 539.52 0 0.00% 3425 135 -2725 275 -3355 -85 700 410 -70 -50 -2655 325 787548 -1.66% 122.79 -0.08 -0.07% 27.97 -0.33% -59.14 4.85 -7.58% 119.08 21.18% 232.18 8.74% 2410 0.00% 3470 0.87% 0 0 0.95/1.83 0.07/-0.05 . / / 40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/18/1 9/110/1 11/112/1 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 -3,000 -4,000 -5,000 -6,000 01 05 09 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2018/8/2 2018/11/2 2019/2/2 2019/5/2 2019/8/2 2019/11/2 2020/2/2 2020/5/2 2020/8/2 2020/11/2 2021/2/2 /kg 2021/5/2 2021/8/2 2021/11/2 2022/2/2 2022/5/2 2022/8/2 2022/11/2 2023/2/2 3 2023/5/2 1-3 3-5 5-7 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 -1000 1 -2000 1 910 1 1 1112 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 -1000 -1500 -2000 -2500 -3000 1 1 1 1 111212 500 0 -500 -1000 -1500 1 -2000 -2500 1 1 1 1234 2201-22032301-2303 2203-22052303-2305 2205-22072305-2307 wind wind wind 7-9 9-11 11-1 0 -500 -1000 -1500 -2000 1 -2500 1 1 1 3456 1500 1000 500 0 -500 -1000 1 -1500 1 1 1 5678 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 -10070 -2000 -3000 18191101 2207-22092307-2309 2109-21112209-22112309-2311 2111-22012211-23012311-2401 wind wind wind & 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 2016-03 2016-07 2016-11 2017-03 2017-07 017-11 18-03 8-07 -11 03 7 0 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1/12/12/293/314/305/316/307/318/319/3010/3111/3012/31 202120222023 : : 500,000,000 400,000,000 300,000,000 200,000,000 100,000,000 0 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 100%40 80%30 60% 40%20 20%10 0%0 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1 140kg90-140kg50-89kg7-49kg wind PSY 1 2 26.00 24.00 22.00 20.00 18.00 16.00 wind & / / 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2017201820192020202120222023 wind 13540 30 130 125 12020 10 115110 1050 135 130 125 120 115 110 1/1 1/11 1/21 1/31 2/10 2/20 3/2 3/12 3/22 4/1 4/11 4/21 5/1 5/11 5/21 5/31 6/10 6/20 6/30 7/10 7/20 7/30 8/9 8/19 8/29 9/8 9/18 9/28 10/8 10/18 10/28 11/7 11/17 11/27 12/7 12/17 12/27 105 201920202021202220232024 wind / 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 6/17/1 8/19/110/111/112/1 2017 2021 2018 2022 2019 2023 2020 2024 2020 2021 2022 2023 8 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 2022-12-30 2023-01-30 2023-02-28 2023-03-31 2023-04-30 2023-05-31 2023-06-30 2023-07-31 2023-08-31 2023-09-30 2023-10-31 2023-11-30 2023-12-31 2024-01-31 2024-02-29 2024-03-31 80 60 40 20 0 1/1 2/1 3/14/15/1 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2024-04-30 1.40 1.38 1.36 1.34 1.32 1.30 1.28 1.26 1.24 1.22 1.20 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2024/3/28 2024/2/1 2023/12/21 2023/11/9 2023/9/28 2023/8/17 2023/7/6 2023/5/25 2023/4/13 2023/3/2 2023/1/5 2022/11/24 2022/10/13 2022/9/1 2022/7/21 2022/6/9 2022/4/28 2022/3/17 2022/1/26 2021/12/16 2021/11/4 2021/9/23 2021/8/12 2021/7/1 2021/5/20 2021/4/8 2021/2/25 2021/1/7 2020/11/26 2020/10/15 2020/9/3 2020/7/23 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 9 2020/6/11 1,500 22 20 1,00018 16 14 50012 10 8 06 4 2 -500 -1,000 2021-09-242022-09-242023-09-24 / 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 wind / 36 / 501680 451470 4012 60 3510 50 308 40 256 30 204 15220 100 10 0 wind 136 310008 4008888910 / www.nanhua.net 603093